Major technology megacycles for investors, when they come along, last a long time – about 20 years.
The personal computer cycle ran from 1980 – when Apple went public – until the Nasdaq index, stuffed with PC-industry companies like Microsoft, Intel and Dell, peaked in March 2000. Investors didn’t have to be there at the opening bell in 1980 to win big. They could have waited and bought shares in Microsoft when it IPO’d in 1986 at a $500+ million valuation. They could have played it safer and waited until 1992 – more than halfway through the PC megacycle – when MSFT had a market cap of $25 billion. That still left a 20x gain on the table for Microsoft investors over the next 8 years.
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