Seeking Yield, Mutual Funds Take Big Risks

Bill Fleckenstein MSN Money June 27, 2011

6/24/2011 5:17 PM ET

By Bill Fleckenstein, MSN Money

Some supposedly safe places for cash are exposing savers to surprising amounts of European debt -- and the hazards that go with it.

At the risk of yelling "Fire!" in a crowded theater, I'd like to focus on a looming problem whose existence came as something of a surprise to me, and I expect will to most readers, as well.

In the most recent issue of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, an article headlined "Big fat zero" points out that the five largest money market mutual funds (three Fidelity funds, one Vanguard and one BlackRock), with combined assets of about $400 billion, have about 41% of their money in European bank debt.

As an unintended consequence of the Federal Reserve basically robbing savers of any reasonable choices (to help bail out the banksters, who are where they are because of their own greed and Fed incompetence), the money-market industry has turned to Europe to find enough yield to pay themselves and offer their fund holders modest returns (though in many cases the returns don't even qualify as modest).

Latest news on a Greek bailout

As an example, the Fidelity Cash Reserves Fund (FDRXX) has more than 45% of its assets invested in Europe. For the risks associated with that, investors are getting paid a whopping one basis point (0.01%, or one one-hundredth of 1%). The yields for the other funds mentioned in the article are not much better, while the risks are, of course, about the same.

The point in all of this is that because no one is being compensated no matter where they put their savings, there is really no point in taking any risk at all. Thus, it probably makes sense for those who can to shift their holdings to Treasury bills.

Bill Fleckenstein

Treasury bills yield as little as they do because of where the Fed has interest rates and also because there are only about $1.6 trillion of them outstanding. That is roughly equal to the amount of money in so-called "prime" money market funds (such as the ones mentioned above).

I know not everyone has the flexibility to own T-bills, and I really can't tell you what you are supposed to do if that option is not available. (Though FDIC-insured savings accounts are safe, as they are backed by the same printing press.) All I can suggest is that everyone examine where they have their cash and try to go with the safest vehicle.

I don't know that there is going to be a problem immediately, nor do I know what a crisis might look like. I do know that I wouldn't lend money to any bank right now (save perhaps some Canadian ones) with a gun to my head, let alone European ones. Therefore, I don't want to do it indirectly via a money fund.

If some sort of a European bank crisis starts to precipitate trouble for money funds, you can almost certainly be assured that the government will ride to the rescue so the funds don't break the buck. But that process could get messy. Folks would probably be made whole, but I would just prefer not to be distracted in a time of turmoil scrambling to make sure my cash is safe.

RIMM's future looks abyss-mal

Now to turn to a different type of cautionary tale, this one from the corporate world.

Last week, BlackBerry maker Research In Motion (RIMM, news) again coughed up a hairball after its most recent preannouncement noting it would miss its latest earnings estimates and was going to institute layoffs. The stock was summarily hammered for about a 20% loss.

Regrettably, I have missed this slide, as I have been uncomfortable being short, or betting stocks will go down -- something regular readers of this column know. (Of all the stocks I might have wanted to short, this is essentially the only one that would have worked well.)

I bring this up because I think there is a decent lesson here. To me, this outcome for Research In Motion has been knowable for quite some time because of the type of company it is, the competitive landscape it faces and a host of similar reasons.

In technology, this sort of fate always befalls niche hardware companies, especially ones that are tied to a closed system. In any case, this is another example of how obvious problems can be ignored ad nauseum, until attitudes change suddenly and unpredictably, and then those same problems are all anyone cares about.

That's why they call it the mean

Research In Motion is also instructive regarding any stock's perceived cheapness. Many folks had thought it was a bargain because it seemed to be trading at eight or nine times earnings. That has now dropped to four times earnings (obviously, past earnings can evaporate prospectively).

Oftentimes when companies are unraveling, their stocks appear cheap, which entices people to average down into a bigger position, and that ends up being a disaster. I'm not saying averaging down is always a bad strategy, but one has to be very careful because you can average your way into real trouble.

Lastly, this episode highlights the difference between Microsoft (MSFT, news) and Research In Motion. (Microsoft is the publisher of MSN Money.)

Someone recently suggested to me that they were similar investment ideas because they had similar price/earnings ratios. But nothing could be further from the truth: One is deteriorating, and the other isn't. However, Microsoft shareholders continue to suffer even though the company is doing quite well.

Eventually, I expect psychology to shift, at which point Microsoft should go on a sprint and everyone will scratch their heads and wonder, "Why now?"

At the time of publication, Bill Fleckenstein owned or controlled shares of the following company mentioned in this column: Microsoft.

This column is a synopsis of Bill Fleckenstein's daily column on his own website, FleckensteinCapital.com, which he's been writing on the Internet since 1996. Click here to find Fleckenstein's most recent articles.

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'Exposing American savers to European debt and Hazards' Isn't that the Same as was done to European savers? They got cheated out of Billions on 5 Star rated American sheet. The game continues.

2 0ReportSpamLaszlo Erdosy11 hours ago

Well Bill,

I own RIMM and I believe there is value in that stock. It makes Blakkberry that is in the hands of most businessmen in the US.

I also own gold fund and I am glad to report that I have made a great retunr on my original investment. I am looking for a sign to exitt that fund.

If you have any ideas, write to me, or I will write you a message from there.

0 1ReportSpamPurevalue19 hours agoBill is right to advise against mutual funds that own bank debt, but it should be pretty well against almost all funds including those that own shares of banks or companies with lots of debt.The problem is that most people who own funds have no idea what type of bonds and shares are represented in the funds they own. Most data sheets and catalogs of investment funds that banks show their customers mention only the the 5 to 10 most important participations.I personally believe that the practice of titrating (or contaminating) funds with low quality investments in small amounts has been going on for quite some while. I discovered this after the financial crisis broke out due to toxic mortgage debt. I checked the funds I owned in detail and discovered a lot of small crap in them. I sold most of them but still own some and they have a hard time to recover. 1 0ReportSpamAdd a commentReportPlease help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. If necessary, they report all illegal activity to the proper authorities.CategoriesSpamChild pornography or exploitationProfanity, vulgarity or obscenityCopyright infringementHarassment or threatThreats of suicideOtherAdditional comments(optional) 100 character limitAre you sure you want to delete this comment?jQuery.async('scp', function () { jQuery.scp.comments({"partnerId":"e70689f0-2848-458a-b8ae-965c0aac79c8","jsUrl":"http://us.social.s-msn.com/s/js/16/ue.min.js","strings":{"lc_shw":"true","lc_dtf":"%M/dd/yyyy %h:mm tt","lc_dtf2":"ddd %h:mm tt","lc_gmt":"-4","lc_erg":"Comments are currently unavailable. 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