I'll make this quick, since I'm going to get in trouble for writing on a national holiday. But the pace of annual jobs growth is too slow to generate strong wage and salary income. Much empirical research has been dedicated to the estimation of consumption functions, generally finding that labor income is the primary driver of consumption (here's a primer at the Federal Reserve Board). However, by extension jobs growth is highly correlated with wage and salary growth, roughly 50% of personal income - this is the relationship I analyze here.Roughly half of the BEA's measure of personal income comes in the form of wage and salary, so called labor income and simply referred to as 'wages' from here on out. This is highly correlated with nonfarm payroll growth, both in nominal and real terms (92% and 79%, respectively, since 1996). The chart below illustrates the correlation between real wage growth and nonfarm payroll since 1982 (I use real wage so as to account for the effects of inflation).The annual pace of real wage gains and jobs growth have declined over time (jobs growth is measured using the nonfarm payroll). Simply eyeballing the data, there's a structural shift roughly around 1996, as listed in the table below.Using these two time periods, 1982-1995 and 1996-05/2011, I estimate a simple model of real wage growth on nonfarm payroll growth. The chart for the 1996-2011 model is illustrated below; and for reference, the regression results across both time periods are copied at the end of this post.READ MORE AFTER THE JUMP!Note: I do not have time for a full blown econometric analysis. I did, however, perform statistical tests for serial correlation in the errors, unit roots in the transformed data (none), and general modeling tests.I come to two general conclusions regarding the relationship between real wage growth and jobs growth over time:(1) Real wage growth has become more persistent over time. In the first period, 1982-1995, just one lag was required to expunge the errors of autocorrelation. Spanning the second period, 1996-2011, three lags were required. The sum of the coefficients on the three lags is 0.87 in the later sample, or current wage growth is highly dependent on previous periods - sticky if you will.(2) Nonfarm payroll growth has become less significant over time. Spanning the years 1982-1995, the coefficient on annual payroll growth was 0.27 - for each 1pps increase in the annual payroll growth, the trajectory of annual real wage growth increased by 0.27pps. The coefficient dropped to 0.17 in the sample spanning 1996-2011. This is probably a consequence of service sector jobs growing as a share of the labor market. I'd like your ideas in comments as well.Clearly this is a very simple model but it does highlight that wages are likely stuck in the mud for some time. In May, annual real wages fell 0.6% over the year, having decelerated for 5 of the 7 months since November 2010. Real wages can pick up, but it takes time AND jobs growth faster than the 0.67% annual pace in May 2011.Ultimately, what this analysis tells me is with wealth effects slowing markedly - the trajectory of the S&P decelerated and house prices continue to fall - it's going to take a burst of payroll growth to get real wage and salary growth back on track enough to finance US domestic consumption. One caveat to all of this negativity is that oil prices are coming off - this will boost real wage and salary growth directly.Rebecca WilderP.S. I guess this turned out somewhat less 'quick' than I had anticipated - not in trouble yet! Gotta go.Results:
<p>SP500 Buy any pullback until august 17 2011!</p><p>http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/06/sp500-60min-buy-any-pullback-until.html</p>
REbeccathis may be one of those "science has learned everything there is to know" arguments, but here it is:maybe we are reaching the limits of "growth" (at least the kind of growth we are used to thinking about),and maybe wages of the poorer nine tenths have reached the limit both to what their "productivity" justifies, and what they need for a decent life.the very poor need a better deal, or better leadership, so they can have a decent life. the middle class needs to learn that money is not life.the problem is that the rich live an indecent life which is both unsustainable and contributes to the dehumanization of the poor and the foolishness of the middle.granted this is wild speculation on my part, and maybe even a complete failure to understand "economics". but i can't help thinking that economics as we have known it is not the answer to what we need to learn.
"Much empirical research has been dedicated to the estimation of consumption functions, generally finding that labor income is the primary driver of consumption (here's a primer at the Federal Reserve Board)." Note the bolded portion of the statement. My addition. Is this akin to inventing the wheel, or maybe more basic as in I've just discovered fire. What the devil else would drive consumption if not labor income. This is one of those "empirical research findings" from the economic sciences that drive me to drink. It's f____kin" obvious to all but the most lame. Labor income is the basis for demand. No income, no demand. What else is new in the world?
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