Editor's note: Today we introduce Economic Revolution, a monthly column that offers insight into the transformational forces at work on the economy and what it could mean for businesses and workers.
I believe that the prevailing economic wisdom — that we're still suffering from the effects of a severe cyclical recession that's otherwise just like dozens of recessions that have come before, and that a return to some traditional "normal" is just a matter of time — is dead wrong.
Instead, I believe we have entered a volatile new era that during the next decade will bring the most radical and rapid transformation of the economic landscape that civilization has ever experienced.
You read that right: Fastest. Most radical. Economic transformation. Ever.
Our entire economy, and by inference our entire society and our entire lives, is being fundamentally reshaped and remade by a "Big Bang" of forces unleashed by the astonishing rise of the Internet and the torrents of world-changing information that have come with it.
But as the first sizable impacts have become visible, they've been misdiagnosed as symptoms of more conventional economic maladies. And they're being "treated" accordingly. But it's like having leprosy and being treated for athlete's foot: The medicine's not going to help.
Which, as you may have noticed on the employment, balance of trade and other fronts, it isn't.
It's not your grandfather's Depression.
For any observers who may have thought that Internet-driven changes were so yesterday, brace yourselves. Free- flowing information is to a market economy what spinach is to Popeye. Who's winning and who's losing can be suddenly and dramatically changed, which is exactly what appears to be happening on multiple economic fronts.
While some traditional academic economists (Nobel Prize-winner Paul Krugman, for one) have suggested we're entering a new Depression, what's happened to our underlying economy since the 2007 downturn is wildly different from what happened in the 1920s and 1930s. According the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, America's total economic output (our GDP) has grown 4.3 percent since 2007. During the same amount of time — four years — after the Great Depression started in 1929, the American economy shrank more than 43 percent.
So that means that we created 4.3 percent more output with more than 7 million fewer full-time employees than our economy had in 2006. That's terrible for the 7 million people out of work; for the economy in aggregate, however, it is in its own way a mighty impressive thing.
What's happening, I believe, is that the economy has begun a process of rapid restructuring around a new information-enabled superstructure. Faster, more complete flows of information are stripping friction and inefficiency of every kind out of our commercial and consumer systems, allowing us to do more and more with less and less.
Particularly, it seems, less workers.
Prove it!
After 15 years and two successful companies' worth of personal entrepreneurial experience, I've turned my attention to trying to understand and paint the most vivid possible picture of what this economic revolution will look like and how it will affect our lives. It's not an exact science — it's more impressionist painting than digital photography.
Can we prove our economy is being scoured out and restructured primarily by this Internet tsunami? I'm not sure anything in real-world economics is "provable." I do know the explanations of what happened and where we're headed put forth by academic economists and politicians of all stripes fail to explain the depth and breadth of the changes we're all experiencing.
Something different is happening here. We can feel it in our collective gut. Could it be that standard economic scorekeeping and analysis just don't offer much illumination in a revolution?
If this sounds grim and apocalyptic, the reality likely has much more upside. We're headed to a very different place, for sure, but along with those losing, there will almost certainly be sharply defined winners as we proceed.
Like an electric shock that can both stop or restart a human heart, these information-driven forces will simultaneously kill and give life to new consumer and business models and entire categories of jobs. We can't stop this revolution, though, so our collective societal task is to harness its positive powers while lending a hand to individuals it lays low.
Dave Maney, an entrepreneur and former journalist, is launching Economaney.com. Reach him at davemaney@economaney.com.Print Email Font ResizeReturn to Top
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