7/15/2011 12:36 PM ET
Fed chief Bernanke is hovering, ready to respond to US economic weakness with more stimulus; Europe wishes it could use the same 'fix.'
Last Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered his scheduled testimony before Congress, and to my mind a Bloomberg headline reporting the story said it all: "Bernanke says Fed 'prepared to respond' if stimulus needed."
In his prepared remarks, "Helicopter Ben" said: "The possibility remains that the recent economic weakness may prove more persistent than expected and that deflationary risks might re-emerge, implying a need for additional policy support. . . . The Federal Reserve remains prepared to respond should economic developments indicate that an adjustment of monetary policy would be appropriate."
It's no surprise Bernanke feels that way, but the fact that he believed he needed to say so shows he is feeling pressure over the high unemployment rate (and he didn't want to get pistol-whipped by Congress).
Should the Fed be abolished?
I had thought that at least a decent amount of weakness in the stock market would be required before the Fed would start hinting at QE3, but clearly that is not the case. That doesn't negate the fact that weaker stock prices, combined with the employment data we have seen, would most likely produce QE3 in a heartbeat.
Thus the markets, I am sure, have now concluded (as Bernanke wanted them to) that we are only a few weak data points from more quantitative easing. The bottom line to speculators is that Bernanke has your back in an even more blatant way than then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan did during the days of the "Greenspan put."
Bill Fleckenstein
On Thursday, however, a morning surge was met with a sell-off that appeared to be precipitated by Bernanke telling the Senate that the Fed wasn't proposing a new round of quantitative easing right now. Thus bulls may have realized that the difference between hinting about QE3 and doing it is more bad news.
It is remarkable how far we have devolved from monetary policy that seemed insane at the time, that being the late 1990s. It shows that, when it comes to central bankers who print money, the rule is Gresham's law on steroids: Not only does bad money drive out good, but bad monetary policy feeds on itself exponentially.
As if to illustrate that latter point, during the Q&A part of his testimony, Bernanke made some remarkable statements about money printing and gold. In particular, he said he views the former as "creating bank reserves" and not conjuring money out of thin air. As for the latter, Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, asked him directly, "Do you think gold is money?" to which Bernanke replied, "No."
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In case there was any doubt, Bernanke clearly does not understand the difference between an asset (which often isn't a store of value) and a store of value (which is also an asset). But there is a lot he does not understand.
The Lord sayeth: Worry about the elephantAlthough Wall Street has trouble focusing on more than one thing at a time, certain people I know outside Wall Street do not. On the subject of the drama playing out in Europe with the PIIGS, for example, recently (a few days before Italy became headline news) my oft-cited friend the Lord of the Dark Matter noted: "I'm done worrying about Greece, Ireland, Portugal and even Spain. It is time to worry about the elephant in the room, Italy."
In addition, he succinctly described the conundrum that is the European monetary union, which I thought I would share because it is so well-stated:
". . . This is no way to run a currency union: what, if any, incentives does any outsider looking at this debacle have to increase their exposure to peripheral EMU credits?
"It is pathetic that EMU has come down to a choice between the ECB continuing to fudge, and the Greek, Irish and Portuguese banking systems falling down, due to ratings applied by one or more foreign ratings agencies that the guardians of EMU still blame for most things that went wrong in 2007 and 2008.
"I cannot imagine the ECB would allow EMU to implode, not after Europe has worked for sixty years to get this far, simply because one or more of S&P, Moody's, Fitch & (ridiculously) DBRS belatedly decide a piece of peripheral confetti is junk.
"Bet on more fudges. In fact, bet on a fudge every time on any decision in which the alternative is losing one or more banking systems. . . .
"I actually sympathise with the ECB in their struggle with the ratings agencies, but they have nobody to blame but themselves.
"Yet as long as the ECB, and others, continue to think you can fix a solvency crisis by applying more liquidity, without doing anything for the actual debtor, then expect this crisis of EMU -- and it is a crisis of EMU, whatever the attempted spin -- to metastasise and become less rather than more manageable."
The same side of 2 coinsI continue to marvel at the illustration of the power of the printing press in the form of the euro. By that I mean Europe's plight stems from the fact that individual countries there don't have their own printing presses. (Its real problems, of course, have to do with having lived beyond its means for so long, as we have.)
The Europeans are broke, and we are broke, though we have different underlying economies. (If we were to face our problems, we would have a better chance of solving them than do some of the PIIGS nations, although I don't know if we have the political will to do it.)
But the European nations would not be in this predicament had they been able to print more euros and kick the can a little farther down the road. I imagine at some point they will figure this out and print money like mad before the euro ultimately is restructured.
Last Monday the Lord of the Dark Matter had this to say about the European monetary union: "How about we cut straight to the chase. If they do NOT soon come up with something along the lines of euro bonds (a euphemism for printing money the way the Fed does), or permanent fiscal transfers, then I don't see how the EMU gets through 2011. It is now that serious."
This column is a synopsis of Bill Fleckenstein's daily column on his own website, FleckensteinCapital.com, which he's been writing on the Internet since 1996. Click here to find Fleckenstein's most recent articles.
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“This could be the fix to the problem the ECB was facing,” said Laurent Bilke, head of inflation strategy at Nomura International in london, who used to work at the ECB.“If these guarantees are very short-term, maybe just for a few days, just to tide them over a short selective default, then taxpayers’ exposure will be limited.”
So then there is no default? this is a good as printing money
How does this stop spain, italy, portugal, to get in line at the trough?
1 0ReportSpamLostOnEarth20 hours agoLove you like a brother Bill! Keep on reporting the truth and the facts as you have always done,.... no matter what. You are 1 in a trillion! Take care and God bless you always! Farewell my friend! Sincerely, Robert
2 0ReportSpamEdward F. DijeauTue 12:38 AMThere is a horde of One Billion US Dollar coins in the treasury vaults already made and ready to circulate that banks just won't take and distribute. Pay all the Government employees with these dollar coins. Put them in 100 dollar bags and hand them out instead of checks or 100 dollar bills. They will be spent and will be like the Hard Times Tokens of 1830 and 1870. They are already on the books and no increase of the debt ceiling is needed. Pay off those congressmen in those dollars until they pass legislation to raise the debt limit. Their wives will see those 50 pound bags of coins and slap their goofy husbands across the room until the regular pay check start coming again. 2 1ReportSpamtenn. gamersMon 4:50 PMWhen will people figure out benake is holding the strings connected to the puppet obama 3 3ReportSpamHedonist13Mon 3:03 PMRep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, asked him directly," Do you think gold is money?" to which Bernanke replied, "No."Holy crap! THIS is what we've got for a Fed Chairman?? Is he just ignoring the fact that our money used to be backed by the gold standard?? Or is he really just effing clueless? Ron Paul is right: we need to abolish the Fed and take control of our financial responsibilities. They're in the hands of unscrupulous clowns. This is just downright scary.
26 7ReportSpammrchrisgMon 2:17 PMObama is letting this fool print more money, making all our money worth much less (or worthless). 20 6ReportSpammrchrisgMon 2:15 PMObama is letting this fool print more money, making all our money worth much less (or worthless). 13 6ReportSpamRay USAMon 12:54 PMBill is on target again. The dollar and the euro will race to the bottom. There is no financial asset that will be safe. Gold is your only hedge until the borrowing and printing madness eases. 21 5ReportSpamBooyah5082Mon 12:50 PMBreak out the guillotine, a revolution is coming!! 25 6ReportSpamJust enter your preferred display name belowMon 12:00 PMROFL -- Helicopter Bernanke has run out of money. There will be no QE3 folks.Things are going to get very very bad for the US as Bernanke was the buyer of last resort for US T-bills. Their is nobody in the world who can buy our debt now. And $8 trillion is coming due in the next year (only S.S. and medicare funds are locked away for decades now) and I figure a lot of that if not all will not roll over after all $2 trillion belongs to the Federal Reserve right now. So with $8 trillion and a deficit of $1.5 trillion and interest on the national debt of $400 billion may be doubling to $800 billion Geithner will have to come up at least $4 trillion (the increase and the Federal Reserve amount) next year possibly $10 trillion.Let's see US businesses are still losing $5 billion a day still. Bernanke is out of money. Europe is a couple of broke economies trying to bail out many broker economies.Japan is going to take decades to recover from the earthquake and nuclear disaster. Another nuclear power plant in western Japan is shutting down adding to the energy crisis over there.Russia is still broke from the collapse.China is having a crisis of how to feed 1.6 billion people and keep them from rioting. And they have stated that they are dumping dollars as quickly as possible.Asia is still in a recession as the US is not buying their stuff.American consumers are still piling on credit card debt and not paying their mortgages in order to pay the minimum on their cards.Africa well Africa is Africa.South America is a mess as normal. Perhaps the drug lords can cut a deal with the U.S. Treasury and loan them $1 trillion to keep the law off their tails. Australia is in a recession and still to recover from the drought and then the floods. Not sure what the Antarctic economy is like perhaps they are holding onto trillions of dollars???Pretty much the US will have to default folks.The FAT LADY she is a singing now. 44 9ReportSpamSSG KMon 11:19 AM
Strom, yes the markets would again rise but only until our credit rating is eventually lowered from AAA .
It is inevitable, even if we do raise the debt limit it does not mean that we are more fiscally responsible as these credit rating agencies wish to see.
If anything it shows how we are more irresponsible because we did not even try to live within the current "debt ceiling".........
22 6ReportSpamSSG KMon 11:12 AMFINALLY a writer with the balls to tell it like it is!
The time for sugar coating our horrible policies and leadership is over.
We have a moron leading the Federal Reserve that does not even see "GOLD" as money, and must have completely forgot the FACT that there is a clause in the CONSTITUTION OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA that states...."No state shall...Make any thing but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debt." Article 1, Section 10
This article clearly outlines that GOLD is to be considered MONEY and to be used as a foundation for all our PRINTED DOLLARS to settle all debts.
But the all knowing "Uncle Ben" is too ignorant to realize it is HIS AND THIS ADMINISTRATIONS POLICIES that continue to fuel this recession! It is their ignorance and idealism that is fueling our current stagnation!
And yet we have to deal with our current President complaining about "inheriting" this mess and adding fuel to the fire that is "class warfare", as he tries to sidetrack America from looking at his failed policies and horrible leadership that is the Barrack Obama legacy........
"Change you can believe in.........."
41 12ReportSpamStromprophetMon 11:00 AMBill,
Any comments on what you expect the market to do if a decision is reached on the debt ceiling? I would suspect a break out on positive emotion (of course, I think that should be a fake break out). But it could be sustained based on positive earnings from companies that are getting huge windfalls from cheap money around the globe.
When does that run out? By the same token, if the debt deal is only to raise the ceiling for 1 year, maybe that sends a negative signal and the market breaks thru the 1260-1280 resistance area to retest 2010 lows.
2 1ReportSpamWakeUpNow07Mon 10:50 AMThe main reason why Canada's economy is strong is mainly due to their small population and incredible natural resources.
Politicians cause fiscal issues by implementing policies that make them look good and the other side bad - problem here is that they can almost never see eye to eye unless they are voting on some sort of new benefit package for themselves - fantastic new retirement benefits, health care for life, long vacations etc etc!
After their first 5 year term All congress/senate members should have to be "re-confirmed" by their home district electorate every year by a minimum of 50% - (except in election years) -
The first 3 words of he Constition are "We the People ...." ....the types of politicians we have in DC now are worse than the British of 200 plus years ago ....now all we have is taxation with piss poor representation ....
38 6ReportSpamStromprophetMon 10:35 AMFor all the clamor....
Spending accelerated 6% a year from 2000-2008
Spending accelerated 8% a year from 2009-2011
Yes, it's more. But irresponsible spending has been going on since the end of the 90s. You can't grow spending 6% a year while the economy grows 3% a year. You can't do it 8% either. What really sucks is tax revenues % of GDP dropped in the 2000s compared to the 90s. So that exaccerbates the problem of spending faster than the economy grows.
Employment incentive is what is needed. Germany's model would be a good place to start. Take funds for UI and use them to bargain with employers to keep workers employed rather than laying people off. It keeps peoples skills up to date, people are paying working taxes, and the work force is flexible.
16 7ReportSpamrealfairnessMon 10:12 AMDelmar,
You say (correctly) that Canada's economy is one of the world's best. But then you attribute it to spending cuts. Where do you get that information?
In 2007 the Canadian government spent $232 billion (Canadian). In 2008 it was $237, in 09 it was $274, in 10 it was $280.
9 5ReportSpamStromprophetMon 9:54 AMThey now have 5% unemployment and have one of the world's best economies.
That's not new.
The Canadian economy has benefited drastically from the run up in commodities over the last decade. How about commenting on the fact that they still run socialism there.
16 9ReportSpamDelmar Fairchild (DelofBarron) Mon 9:21 AMWe should ask the Canadians for help. They were in this same boat just before 2007. They cut welfare, cut unemployment benefits, cut gov't workers, cut spending in general, cut taxes and banks required a 20% downpayment on a house and then they cut the red tape in creating jobs using their natural resources.
They now have 5% unemployment and have one of the world's best economies.
29 14ReportSpamdendlMon 9:05 AMHey Lost on Earth,
Name calling of either political party is a major part of the problem, and certainly not part of the solution. Let's try to get by this bias.
Chad in CO
26 9ReportSpamcomsenseMon 9:03 AMMaking a deal now to extend the debt ceiling or waiting till later has the effect of a bitter pill now or passing out with little chance coming to after the party. I say, take the bitter pill now, cut, cut and more cuts until revenues meet expenditures and suffer over 10 years or so till recovery. Putting off the day of reckoning will make the pain last for decades, a third world type living standard, further crumbling infrastructure and endangering our security in the dangerous world we live in.
Much like the elephant in the room according to the article, pay close attention to the countries in europe and how they squeeze through the present financial hardships, this will befall us. As I have posted before, Bernanke and company are embarking on a plan to monetize the debt and destroy the savings and investments everyone holds. Attempts to re-inflate the economy will fail BADLY!!!
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