How Investors Can Ready For the Worst

Anthony Mirhaydari MSN Money July 28, 2011

7/27/2011 3:26 PM ET

By Anthony Mirhaydari, MSN Money

Politicians say they're committed to making sure the US doesn't default on its debt, but their actions haven't inspired much confidence. Here's how investors can prepare for the worst.

We're into the third year of the economic recovery, and stocks are stuck again. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) is trading at levels it reached in February; it's been skidding sideways since.

The past five months have brought a series of potential financial disasters. We've seen Arab revolutions, Japanese calamities, a Portuguese bailout, a second Greek bailout, $115 oil, $1,600 gold, and no fewer than two round-trip stock sell-offs of more than 7%.

And now, there's the U.S. debt-ceiling mess -- which is really two issues snarled into a rat's nest of competing ideologies and hard choices. There is the long-term federal deficit/debt problem. And there is the short-term problem of raising the Treasury's borrowing limit by Aug. 2. Failure to do the latter would set off a chain reaction that might have the U.S. defaulting on its debt.

Why do we have a debt ceiling?

Last week, in "Debt cure is going to hurt," I looked at the likelihood that a deal will lead to years of inflation designed to shrink the nation's debt, similar to strategies used in the past. So far this week, a deal remains elusive, and the probability of default has gone from "no way" to at least possible.

So it's time to look at ways to protect your portfolio from a debt deadlock -- without losing a lot if Congress and the White House manage to do the right thing after all.

Anthony Mirhaydari

Of course, everyone in Washington still swears they want to avoid a U.S. debt default, because the alternative is so dire. Inaction could also shut down parts of the government and lead to a credit downgrade for the U.S.

And all this could also mean a repeat of the kind of panic seen the last time we faced a big financial policy crisis and made poor choices. That, of course, was in late 2008 after House Republicans initially torpedoed a bank bailout and the Bush administration let Lehman Brothers collapse. Congress eventually OK'd a bailout, but the mishandling of that crisis is part of what made the Great Recession so painful.

For investors, the fallout was severe. From the time the extent of the financial mess became clear in late 2008 through the bottom of March 2009, the market lost roughly half its value. Our 401ks and IRAs crumbled. Yes, the market has made most of that back, but we're still struggling with 9%-plus unemployment and halting growth. Trust me, we don't want to go through something like that again. Not with the economy already vulnerable.

But where there was once promise of bipartisan compromise and a $4 trillion budget deal worked out by President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, we now see political squabbling and a hardening of positions. Investors are understandably nervous that Washington is playing political games with our fragile economy.

Can the Democrats and Republicans come together to tackle the deficit and raise the debt ceiling, current bluster aside? No one really knows. And that's what makes the situation so scary. We're flying in the dark here.

Preparing for the worst

So what can the average investor do to prepare for the doomsday?

Getting ready is not impossible, but it means using the right strategy in a market where volatility is high and diversification offers less and less protection from market ups and downs. It's about finding new ways to protect your wealth.

That's no longer as simple as moving from stocks to cash, or buying gold. Cash holdings will be slowly eroded by low interest rates and higher inflation, while gold is vulnerable to swings in the dollar and is extremely sensitive to policy outcomes. There also appear to be signs of froth in the gold market -- it might already have gone too high. And as I discussed last week, bonds, another usual refuge, seem ready for a multidecade period of underperformance relative to stocks.

What you need to do, then, is stay focused on the strongest stocks rather than just hiding, while avoiding the weakest and reducing your overall exposure to the market. Here's how I'd go about it.

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I watch all these correspondents on TV and I'm pretty sure they make 10 times that (Riley). Whole worlds a mess because of MONEY>>>>>> not LOVE. Just cannot blame people for wanting to make more money than EVERYONE else!!! One world economy coming soon or the other thing and you know what that is!!! Love for all of you that feel righteous pain right now, really! If the government of the US becomes a government the people don't want., then by Hippocratic oath, the people have a right to OVERTHROW this ESTABLISHMENT!!! 12 2ReportSpamherman hootenholler4 hours agoListen up: life is not fair...creating wealth is not a closed system; it's an open system...in other words, someone else's wealth did not make someone else poor or less wealthy...if man doesn't live within it's means; "mother nature", in time, will do what man chose not to do or was unable to do...understand the Iron Laws of Economics...either learn to live with what you have or YOU do something about it...do not expect the government to do it for you. Maybe God doesn't intend for you to have everything you want. You may, actually, be working against God's Will. He may be trying to tell you that a more spirtual existence is much more satisfying and will leave you with the peace of mind you so desperately are seeking. Resign yourself to that idea. 11 4ReportSpamPBB BBD4 hours agoV not V I am with you. Don't raise the debt ceiling, let it all collapse, clean the system out, start again fresh and hope we build something stronger. 14 14ReportSpamvanhalen not vanhagar5 hours agoDude your article provides no answers and just panics everyone. Your all over the map here. Do you work for the Obama administration? The only way to make money now is to earn it by work or owning a business. Nothing is safe. And the last 40 years of big government and wall street greed has caused it. Now all the idiots who have ruled us into this are trying to act like they can solve it. The rest have either retired and or passed away. I say F them all don't raise the debt ceiling and let free market powers decide not the press or the politicians. The longer you wait the harder the landing. 15 10ReportSpamSomeone5 hours agoI am a 28 years old nurses, sexy and mature. Now I amseeking a good man who can give me real love , so i got a username Annababe2011 on------Ag'e Romance. C oM------- .the premiere online community for men & women who don't rule out relationships with people that are significantly older or younger than themselves. Feel comfortable with the possibility of starting an age-gap relationship in a community where people think just like you., small business creates jobs, rich people create jobs, keep blaming the govt.", and other such nonsense. On one hand, they will blame Corporate CEOs for outsourcing jobs to China, and with the other they will say "Govt. should not regulate business", that "those who blame CEOs are "Socialists". "no one is entitled to a job", etc. 3 24ReportSpamwork205 hours ago

And yet, day after day, most Americans, including 80% of the people on this post, still blindly believe in "Capitalism, free enterprise, free trade, small business creates jobs, rich people create jobs, keep blaming the govt.", and other such nonsense. On one hand, they will blame Corporate CEOs for outsourcing jobs to China, and with the other they will say "Govt. should not regulate business", that "those who blame CEOs are "Socialists". "no one is entitled to a job", etc.

You capitalists deserve what you get. No jobs and financial disaster. Good thing that all this is taking place.

13 13ReportSpamindependentvoter9995 hours ago

In other words, we're f****d.

Buy things like $VIX, SH, Puts and other securities that do well in a bear market.

Buy gold and silver.

Sell on rallies.

Write your senators and congressman. If they know we're really pi$$ed, maybe it will help.

Hope that our political leaders will come to their senses before it's too late.

If they don't, then vote the SOBs out of office in the next election. I'll do my best to do that anyway.

Take up drinking - it won't help your portfolio, but you'll feel better.

8 2ReportSpamscritic6 hours agoPolitics aside, this charts and ideas on this third page are some of the best advice an amature investor can use. It's pretty much a formula for picking a decent stock. You don't win them all no matter what, but if you are a bull market investor, this is a playbook. 3 9ReportSpamdrew mott6 hours agobring our troops home and quit sticking are noses in other countries problems. 37 5ReportSpamMachelle Carden9 hours agoFIRE THEM ALL!!! THEY SHOULD BE ASHAMED OF THEMSELVES AS SHOULD ALL OF THE BIG CONGLOMERATE BUSINESS PEOPLE!!! ****S!!! 42 7ReportSpamAdd a commentReportPlease help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. 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