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You can’t argue with the market. It’s pointless. But I’m hearing people say, “Now is the time for capital preservation. Go into bonds.” etc.
This seems silly to me. The time when I wish everyone was in bonds (including me) was 10% ago on the S&P.
Now is the time to buy. When there is blood in the streets. I follow about 30 stocks on my screen. They are all red. Statistically, when 10 stocks are down for every one up, the market tends to be higher one week later. Here’s more facts to ponder:
- The debt ceiling crisis has passed.
- 75% of companies beat earnings estimates.
- Household debt obligations (rent, credit card bills, car payments, etc., divided by income) are at lows since 1992.
- Manufacturing and service sectors are still expanding.
- GDP growth is still expanding.
- Many commodity prices at at historic lows.
- Car sales are up 5.8% YoY.
- The effects of QE2 + Japanese stimulus are not yet baked into the economy.
- Market indices are market-cap weighted, so are we really going to sit on our hands when AAPL has $79 billion in cash and trades at 12x forward earnings? INTC at 10x forward earnings? MSFT at 10x forward earnings? Meanwhile AAPL has 92% YoY growth.
And yet, some headlines were: “U.S. could default.”
It’s IMPOSSIBLE for the nation to default. Even without the debt ceiling, we were allowed to roll over debt. Every newspaper and TV station was lying when they said we might stop making Social Security payments. Its lies and fear that the media continually spreads. I honestly don’t understand why I get fact-checked on every little number while the headlines continue to lie to the masses.
Meanwhile, the market trades for 12x forward earnings. And companies will continue to beat them.
What happens to the billions of shares short when AAPL finally declares a dividend?
I don’t know, but it will be enormous. For myself, I nibbled on a little bit of DNDN an hour ago. The company fell 65%. It’s a volatile stock. I’ve been playing it ever since it was $4. I know how it behaves. It acts violently both on the downside and upsid, but even at $93,000 a month, Provenge, its prostate cancer drug, is still the best thing out there and Medicare will continue to pay.
And guess what? More men are turning 65 than ever. You know what that means? More prostate cancer (I should check this out myself). So I am nibbling, and I’ll eat more if it goes even lower.
Columnist James Altucher will be blogging through the day whenever he sees or hears something that he thinks is wrong, out of whack or just plain ridiculous.
James Altucher is managing director of Formula Capital, an alternative asset management firm. In addition to this blog, he writes a weekly column for Marketwatch.com, and blogs for the Wall Street Journal's Financial Adviser blog. He has written for Forbes, the New York Post, TheStreet.com, the Daily Beast, and many other publications. Altucher also is the author of six books. His latest two are: “The WSJ Guide to Investing in the Apocalypse” and “How to be the Luckiest Man Alive.” Before that he started Stockpickr.com and sold it to TheStreet.com. Before that he failed, succeeded, was hired and fired from at least 10 other businesses and jobs. All of his books are available at Amazon.com but only the last two are worth the paper they are printed on. Tips for blog items are welcome; send to jaltformula@aol.com. Follow James on Twitter @jaltucher.
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