8/12/2011 12:19 PM ET
The debt downgrade and turmoil that has followed have shaken the world's confidence in the US dollar and its leadership. But pain could be the motivation we need to fix the core problems.
Bill Fleckenstein
Well, it's been an interesting week, to say the least.
First off, starting with the S&P downgrade of U.S. debt, we must remember two things:
1. The debt is still AA+, not junk; plus it's not like we're about to default tomorrow, or ever, because we have a printing press.
2. The downgrade is largely symbolic, although that doesn't mean it is not important.
Parenthetically, I happened to turn on "Bubblevision" (aka CNBC) Monday morning (I almost never watch it, and even then, usually with the sound off) to see how it treated the news. While I never expect much from that channel, I was appalled at the amount of effort directed at shooting the messenger rather than recognizing the significance of the message.
S&P under fire for downgrading U.S.
Elsewhere, I was happy to see that bond king Bill Gross, of the Pimco Total Return (PTTAX) fund, said, "S&P finally got it right. They are enforcing some discipline. My hat is off to them." His opinion is somewhat unpopular, as the denial crowd continues to want to pretend that none of our enormous problems, which have been a long, long time in the making, really matters.
So even though it is easy to poke fun at S&P for being asleep during the housing crisis -- and who knows what caused people there to wake up and smell the coffee vis-à-vis U.S. debt -- this is an important and necessary wake-up call. If we are to change the path we are on, we have to start somewhere, and this sort of shock is hopefully the beginning of that.
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In and of itself, the downgrade doesn't mean much to the markets, though it does impact psychology, which has obviously mattered a lot. But the fact that the stock market dropped about 3% at the first opportunity is more a function of the fact that stocks were already headed lower.
The rally of the last couple of years was built on the unstable foundation of money printing and the violent decline that ended in March 2009. It was never about anticipating any kind of a standard recovery, because we weren't going to have one after we ruined the consumer economy and the financial system. As I have said repeatedly for the last couple of years, all that the Federal Reserve and the government have done is buy some time, during which we mostly did nothing to solve anything.
No free lunch, only free moneyAfter the mayhem on Aug. 8, there was tremendous volatility again the next day as everyone waited to see whether the Federal Open Market Committee was prepared to save the world, and if so, how. In the end, the Fed (only) promised "exceptionally low" rates (i.e., negative real interest rates) "until at least 2013."
Though Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke did commit to using additional policy tools "as appropriate," that really wasn't what the stock bulls wanted to hear, so the market quickly sank and was soon in the red. Though it rebounded and rallied 4% on Tuesday, it lost almost 5% on Wednesday.
Bernanke doesn't seem to understand that he is 100% trapped. Either he needs to spring more quantitative easing (i.e., QE3) soon, or stocks will crash more and he will have to do it later anyway. For a guy committed to printing our way to prosperity, he sure doesn't seem to understand the monster that he and his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, have created.
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C óM------- .the premiere online community for men & women who don't rule out relationships with people that are significantly older or younger than themselves. Feel comfortable with the possibility of starting an age-gap relationship in a community where people think just like you.e will reach $20 Trillion very quick with less economic activity....and it don't look good right now....I'm expecting all kinds of fees to be added to everything in the book that we consume....and now some states are wanting to use another sales tax increase for highways ,etc..nothing but bloated Government... 2 3ReportSpamJeremy123416 hours agoHandover the US to China (we're already 'owned' by the Chinese, so what the hack)At least China knows how to Lead and Govern a Country, and maybe the World either!
Actually, China is a crap hole. Been there. They know how to enslave people. And cheat other governments. The entire mess: outsourcing to crap holes like china, india, mexico, etc. and continue strick course of oil for US transportation are all two things that create this complete unstable mess.
What may happen: Chinese people will begin to revolt.
Americans will have such a huge unemployment you will see big big increases in crime and rioting. Potential revolts, that may look like small revolutions, but they'll be so polar opposite from each other they'll look more like crazy mobsters or cultists.
As oil starts to deplete in supply compared to demand the entire game is up. That's like $10.00 ($10.00 in adjusted inflation) per gallon for gas. Wars will break out between smaller nations and mid-east and Russia will be picked apart by every country from Europe and US/Canada. US may completely crumble if the military is decimated by spending cuts as that will be the last resource the US will have. Because of surplus stocks of military stuffs, and massive unemployment by then, people will flock for the military (already this happening now) and a war will be considered something to get people employed (stimulate the economy).
But I think that's where it's all headed to. We will see.
2 0ReportSpamCrying Tree7 hours agoNo Pain - No Gain. Put it off as long as possible but sooner or later we will need to face the music. In the beginning of this mess it would have been better to let values find their own level. With help( help yourself) over here and help over there no one is sure. I think the author is right. 1 0ReportSpamSomeone (clevus) 12 hours agoWall Street is just trying to blackmail the Fed into printing them some more "free" money to piss off, "free market" capitalism is a hoax, their is no market that is not controled and manipulated by the people that have all the money, the American economy is a good example of how not to do things. The sooner the robber barons are burned out of the beltway the sooner things can improve for Amerrica and it's citizens. 9 3ReportSpamRomboud16 hours agoKarl Marx was right: "In a capitalistic society, with an strong survival of the fittest encouragement, the mess for sure will show up!"
Now we have to clean up the Mess!
3 3ReportSpamT BO Row (tborow) 17 hours agowhat out for SPain, Italy.France to join the fracas with Greece and UK...why germany even has a GDP at 85%...and just think of what happens when these economies are NOT growing....the debt will ramp up much faster ...as is the situation in the U.S.we will reach $20 Trillion very quick with less economic activity....and it don't look good right now....I'm expecting all kinds of fees to be added to everything in the book that we consume....and now some states are wanting to use another sales tax increase for highways ,etc..nothing but bloated Government... 7 0ReportSpamCR202017 hours agoThere isn't going to be constructive change, not as long as the financial services industry is able to buy so much influence in Washingtion. Their agenda is simple - privatize gains and socialize losses. "We want the freedom to fleece people and wildly gamble, but when it all crashes, we want the taxpayers to bail us out. Oh, and by the way, tax the "little people", not us." 22 0ReportSpamCR202017 hours agoRomboud, get a life. 5 0ReportSpamDaveat191018 hours agoWhen the economy is weak, Congress is gridlocked, debt default payments are actually debated for the first time, Europe has problems, jobs going off shore, trillions in spending for 2 wars, social security. medicare, medicare threatened, why gamble with stocks? 3 1ReportSpamRomboud18 hours agoAmen !
1 2ReportSpamRomboud18 hours ago
For now we have a Debt-Ceiling Committee, the hardliners of the Tea Party are frustrating any possible raise in taxes for the Rich & Wealthy.What will happen to Social Security, Social Healthcare, Education ?All cut down by some F*****g GOP/Tea Partyers ?No thanks, I would rather emigrate ... to the US leading shareholder ... China !
7 11ReportSpamRomboud19 hours ago What's ahead for the stock market ?Come one everyone. Great buying opportunity. Buy and hold. Have confidence in the great Obama & Bernanke recovery Show will continue !(Laughing out Loud)
4 7ReportSpamRomboud20 hours agoMake Love ... not War !
9 2ReportSpamRomboud20 hours agoImpeach All Congressman
Remove Obama from officeHandover the US to China (we're already 'owned' by the Chinese, so what the hack)At least China knows how to Lead and Govern a Country, and maybe the World either!
2 14ReportSpamRomboud21 hours agoImpeach All the US Politicians & Lawmakers !
Handover the US to our leading shareholder ......China.
For at least they know how to Lead & Govern a Country !
2 10ReportSpamRomboud21 hours agoWashington DCWashington Debt Ceiling CommitteeWashington DCC !!!Flushing Washington DCC
2 5ReportSpamRomboud21 hours ago"Shut up and pay taxes!" What Leadership does the President of the United States of America show? 2.9 trillion spent since 2009 with nothing to show for it. And we should just shut up about that? "Yeah wright, ... just shut ..the f... up and pay your taxes!"
10 2ReportSpamRomboud21 hours ago2.9 trillion spent since 2009 with nothing to show for it. And we should just shut up about that?
I wouldn't mind paying taxes, if this government wasn't throwing it away.
That's what is P!ssing me of !
Have a nice day.
6 3ReportSpamRomboudSat 8:40 PMI will take care !
Thanks Re-TOG,
with kindly Regards,
Romboud, a European citizen.
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