Panic? 6 Stocks the Insiders Are Snapping Up

Michael Brush MSN Money August 17, 2011

8/16/2011 8:07 PM ET

By Michael Brush, MSN Money

While recent volatility sparked panic selling, those in the know were buying. Among the names insiders thought were bargains: Morgan Stanley, Hasbro and Berkshire Hathaway.

Good news: Stocks are stabilizing.

But is this just the eye of the storm, or was the frightful first fortnight of August merely a bull market correction that's almost over? The question is critical, because the latter would mean it's a good time to snap up bargains in the market.

I'm definitely in the "almost over" camp for a simple reason: Corporate insiders -- the guys and gals with the front-row seats on the economy -- are back in the market in a huge way.

"There's been a dramatic shift towards buying," says Richard Uhl, a research analyst with Thomson Reuters. Insiders have been snapping up so much stock, he says, they're now as bullish as they were during those bleak moments in February and March of 2009 -- when the market was bottoming after another monster sell-off.

That's a sign that those buying stocks in the wake of the pullback are right -- and in case you want to join in, I'll name several blue-chip plays that insiders are buying later in this column. First, let's take a deeper look at what the insiders are telling us about the road ahead.

Is insider buying a bullish signal?

Of course, the big fear among investors is that the economy is now flying at stall speed. Many pundits think job growth is so low that consumers will cut back on spending. Companies will see demand drop and cut jobs, leading to a vicious cycle that sends the economy into a tailspin. Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius just raised his odds for a U.S. recession to 1 in 3.

Michael Brush

But the insiders' voluminous buying says that isn't in the cards. "As the markets crashed, insiders were just seizing the opportunity to snap up shares," says David Coleman of Vickers Weekly Insider, published by Argus Research. "The fundamental reason they are buying is they think those shares are undervalued." In other words, stocks look cheap compared with expected profits, because the dire recession scenario isn't going to play out.

At least some Wall Street analysts agree. "The current S&P 500 market price is implying a reduction in earnings that we find unlikely," Barclays strategist Barry Knapp wrote Monday morning. "We believe the macro outlook is stabilizing."

But what about the other big fear, that European banks will blow up because of exposure to the debt of over-borrowed countries, like Greece and Italy? I'll take the big insider purchases by top execs at JPMorgan Chase (JPM, news) ($6.8 million) and Morgan Stanley (MS, news) ($3.8 million), not to mention lots of regional U.S. banks, to mean that those fears are overdone.

The doomsday scenario is that European banks will blow up in a "Lehman moment," which would seriously harm U.S. banks because the global financial world is so interconnected. But U.S. bank insiders are saying it's not going to happen. "We see some signs that policymakers in Europe are having a degree of success," agrees Knapp.

For those who want some hard numbers on the insiders' buying overall, here's my summary of the big-picture data provided by Thomson Reuters.

For just the first third of August (through Aug. 10), insider buying jumped to $112.6 million, more than the average monthly buying of $104 million during 2010 and through the end of July of this year. Meanwhile, insider selling for the first 10 days of August fell to $546 million, well below the average of $876 million for a third of a month during 2010 and 2011 through July. The result: The Thomson Reuters sell-buy ratio fell to 4.85 (lower is bullish) in early August, a level not seen since the bear market lows of February and March 2009. In those months, the sell-buy ratio stood at 5.1 and 3.9, respectively, and marked a buying opportunity.

Of course, insiders are known to buy for the long term, which means they often buy in a little early. Their purchases don't call the exact bottom of the market; no one can do that. You should be aware that Michael Painchaud, of Market Profile Theorems, who has made a few good market-timing calls lately, thinks stocks could fall back again and test the recent bottom. But there's no doubt that insiders seem bullish and are buying with a ferocity last seen during the last market bottom.

Here are some well-known, large-cap, brand-name companies where insiders were recently snapping up shares. Most of these also pay decent dividends. So if the insiders were early, at least you'll get paid to wait.

Morgan Stanley

Until recently, there had been nothing but selling by Morgan Stanley insiders -- even as the stock slid precipitously this year from highs around $31 in February to $22 to $23 range by June. But when the stock broke through $21 in the August swoon, the selling stopped and the floodgates of insider buying opened. On Aug. 4, CEO James Gorman bought 100,000 shares for a little over $2 million. Other execs, including CFO Ruth Porat, bought more than $1.6 million worth.

All the buying happened between about $20 and $20.62. Now the stock is even lower, at around $17.50. Does this mean that insiders are stupid and you should not follow them? No, it just means that these insiders did what insiders normally do: They bought early. The sheer size of the buys here, and the reversal from years of selling dating back through 2008 (excluding one purchase in January 2010), add up to a strong bullish signal.

Morgan Stanley gets lots of revenue from asset management and investment banking, or assisting with stock, debt and initial public offerings. Investors fear this business will dry up in a recession and bear market. But through their massive purchases, insiders are saying relax -- the threat isn't that serious. Anton Schutz, manager of the Burnham Financial Industries Fund (BURFX) agrees that Morgan Stanley stock looks "incredibly cheap."

Berkshire Hathaway

By early August, the "A shares" of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, news) had fallen almost 24% to $100,265 from $131,463 in late February. In the selloff, a director put more than $800,000 into the stock at $105,416 a share. This confirmed what a lot of Warren Buffett investors and fans, including myself, have been saying recently: Buffett's stock looks too darn cheap.

Berkshire's reported book value at the end of the second quarter was $98,716, which means that the stock currently sells for about 1.09 times book value. Berkshire stock historically trades for about 1.7 times book value, as a mean, and the current level is about as cheap as Berkshire has gotten in past decade, says Barclays analyst Jay Gelb.

He has an "overweight" rating on the more affordable "B" shares of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B, news) which recently sold for around $71.90. Gelb's 12-month price target is $85. But if the stock returns to its average price-to-book value of 1.4 since the 2008 financial crisis, the stock will go to $100.

Berkshire shares have been hit because its reinsurance business, which provides insurance for insurance companies, has been hurt by a slew of natural disasters around the globe. Plus Berkshire Hathaway has big exposure to financial-sector stocks, which are down a lot in this pullback. The insider buying affirms these will turn out to be just temporary issues. (For a look at other stocks you get exposure to when you buy this one, read "Buffett's 7 best stocks today.")

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It looks to me like somebody is dropping the ball with Berkshire. The second from the last paragraph says analyst Jay Gelb is calling B shares overweighted (he's really fighting upstream on this call, BTW). Even if I agreed (I don't) the implication is B shares are overweight, but A shares are not. That's the way I read it, anyway. That would be rediculous since A shares are deliberately tagged at a value of 1500 B shares. If there truly was disparity between the two, there would be a terrific opportunity for arbitrage.

That would have been some article.

0 0ReportSpamE Frost7 hours ago

No one, not even executives, know if the stock market is going to rise or fall next week. They do, however, know if their company's stock is undervalued or not.

The high rate of insider buying shows that they believe their company's shares are undervalued and worth buying; the short-term behavior of the stock market doesn't even matter - and real professionals don't even try to guess it. That's why executives can buy stock but still say "there could be another crash" at the same time; this is not a contradiction in their thinking.

Google "frost finance culling the sheep" for more on this...

0 1ReportSpammikcra8 hours ago

I concur that market timing and bottom picking is a hopeless exercise, but this author seems to doubt his own conviction, in the very next sentence!!!

"Their purchases don't call the exact bottom of the market; no one can do that. You should be aware that Michael Painchaud, of Market Profile Theorems, who has made a few good market-timing calls lately, thinks stocks could fall back again and test the recent bottom."

Why should we be aware Painchaud's latest opinion, you just claimed that 'no one can do that'!!

Geez, re-read your work before hitting 'Submit', please!

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