8/18/2011 5:04 PM ET
As Europe struggles to keep the euro and its banking system viable, instability there could come home to roost in the US.
Bill Fleckenstein
Hopes were running high for Tuesday's meeting of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and what they might conjure up, although I couldn't possibly see what that might be.
The net of the press conference, halfway through Tuesday's trading session, was a lot of brave talk and many bold statements -- but few details -- relating to further European fiscal integration.
Thus, it is no accident that folks (especially Europeans) have been on edge this week, as the European Monetary Union is facing some major, major obstacles that threaten not only the euro, but the European banking system as well. And those problems should concern everyone.
Latest news on the European debt crisis
Along those lines, I would like to spend some time focusing on the euro, and to do a proper job I will rely heavily on input from my oft-quoted pseudonymous friend, "The Lord of the Dark Matter," who has been almost uncanny in his assessments of the financial "plumbing" in Europe since 2006.
The first point I want to share speaks to some of the trouble we saw during last week's craziness, particularly with regard to French banks. Quoting the LODM:
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"I wonder if people realize how bad things now are for EMU? Here is what I think has happened over the past week, and why the guardians of EMU are in a flap. For six months, or more, France has repeatedly called for a larger EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility, but suddenly, they are not."
The reason for that, he thinks, is that the French now realize that an increase in the EFSF would put pressure on their credit rating, which would not be a good thing, given all the derivative exposure of the French banks. (And, by extension, all banks in Europe, which collectively need to roll something on the order of $5 trillion in short-term debt in the next two years, according to financial commentator John Mauldin.)
Thus, the LODM believes that EMU officials are finding the walls closing in and themselves with fewer and fewer options, even as the stakes become higher and higher: "For EMU it is now fiscal union or die, and, barring a miracle, the odds are now on the latter."
That is a pretty potent comment. Yet, while he believes those in charge of the EMU will do "whatever it takes" to keep the status quo going, he does not think they understand what that would actually mean. Why would Germany, for example, vote to bail out other EU countries, perhaps on a permanent, ongoing basis, given the economic head winds its own economy is starting to face?
(As an aside, an extremely knowledgeable and well-placed friend of mine on Wall Street shared his view that the scope of the problem in Europe is probably $1 trillion, which he thinks is just too much for the Germans to afford, or for the PIIGS nations to endure through austerity. Thus, he believes that the flawed experiment called the euro is going to come to an end in the not-too-distant future.)
From IOUs to the ICUSumming up the past two years, during which the EMU has attempted the fool's errand of implementing austerity in Greece, the LODM finds the results less than satisfying, as policy missteps have made bad situations worse. But here is where the rubber meets the road: "The guardians of EMU won't give up easily though: If it becomes obvious it is a choice between cutting rates hard and embarking on unsterilized buying of peripheral debt, or risking the failure of EMU, they will opt for the former. If it becomes obvious it is a choice between getting the euro down, or risking the failure of EMU, they will get the euro down. If it becomes obvious it is a choice between allowing the markets to function or risking the failure of EMU, they will shut the markets down and my oft-repeated warnings of capital controls, considered ridiculous even today, will become reality."
In short, he believes that "in its current form," the EMU's days are numbered, to the tune of the end of 2011. What that means for investors (particularly European ones) is that, "when it comes to EMU . . . trade as you like, but run like hell . . . . I think there is a growing risk the guardians of EMU do something to our financial system that could be worse than anything we experienced in 2008."
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0 0ReportSpamrycopath4 hours agoThe rich get richer and the poor...well you know what happens ! Is there a middle class any more? Why do we read this ? It all seems the same to me....people have jobs, people dont have jobs....did the great recession happen because we were sending jobs to india or other countries? Who knows and who cares? What do we do about it now.....i know, lets keep the same people who have got us in this situation in power. 3 0ReportSpamGRAFFITTI4 hours agoWhat ? What train ? 1 1ReportSpamSummitskibum5 hours agoThis is a perfect example of how bad the idea of a single global currency is.
15 2ReportSpamLostOnEarth6 hours agoVery few listened to us Bill. Oh well! Tsk Tsk Back to Economics 101 for them! 5 1ReportSpamLostOnEarth6 hours agoHow sweet it is! Thank you GOLD! 6 5ReportSpam123_abcxf6 hours agoWho gives a rats rear end about the overpriced EURO?? all the financially strong countries prior to the EMU's existence like France & Germany should have kept their own currency, now since they are the stronger members of the EMU have to bail out the sorry ones & drag down their economy as well. I do believe the comments by LODM to be true the EURO currency will be a currency of the past very soon!!! If the USA has a stomach ache then the rest of the world has serious ulcers, all the hype about GOLD dont buy!!! it will collapse one day also just like current real estate prices in the USA. The U.S. dollar will continue to be the currency of all international trading. Another word of advise for those who care to listen: dont trust large american banks with your hard earned money they don't give a hoot about you except your just another account they can steal from at will. They are only there to satisfy their greedy shareholders & CEO'S. 17 8ReportSpamautoman16 hours agoNot a good sign is it Tumble, unless you're Helicopter Ben. Although Obama desperately wanted him to stay on. Maybe he should have gotten out while the gettin was good. 4 0ReportSpamTumbleweed 19466 hours agoI would love to see some well known gold bug get a segment on CNBC and go over in detail the scenario they have been expecting to play out that wil cause the global financial house of cards to collapse. i distinctly remember reading when Dubai got downgraded and needed a bailout that the gold bugs were saying the same downgrades would happen in Europe and that the banks there would end up collapsing. They ALSO predicted the rush into US treasuries as a result. The NEXT shoe to drop will be when people - or institutions -in need, need to raise cash for whatever reason and the only place NOW to get it is to cash in T bills. All the eggs are now in one basket. That means massive printing in order to reedeem the rush when it comes 8 1ReportSpamSomeone (lo2) 7 hours agoThe Euro has nothing to do with the U.S.A. So why this fear of the Euro is affecting the U.S. markets is beyond me. Let Europe worry about their **** problems and we can be concerned about ours! But no, Wall Street loves to worry about everybody else's problems besides their own. Guarantee you, the Asia Market will drop tonight, which in turn will cause the Europeans to get scared and right back into our laps tomorrow. Monkey See, Monkey Do! What a joke!!!! This is nothing more then the media blowing things way out of proportion. I'm not saying we don't have problems, but they are making a small fish story into a huge shark! And the markets are stupid and foolish enough to believe it. Don't people realize this stuff, or am I the only person who thinks that Wall Street and the other markets are nothing more then a SCAM and Organized Gambling. I'm sure there were plenty of people shorting stocks today and walking away with a s-load of cash. Where else in the market can you do something like that? Who cares if you destroy a companies stock, as long as you can put a nickel in your pocket. And to be honest I hope the nickel burns a huge hole in your leg!!!! 15 13ReportSpamPurplesky7 hours agoReady to lose a boatload this week?
I am; but remember it's only money-it does NOT give happiness.
10 0ReportSpamautoman17 hours agoWhy do I see a world war just around the corner. Iran here we come. 20 1ReportSpamFledermaus 18 hours agoThe euro...17 nations.......BAD BAD idea from the beginning ! They should have all just stayed with their own currencies, this way if one country screws up....that's their problem. Now France and Germany get dragged down with the other irresponsible countries, to no fault of their own. What a mess all over the world !!!!! 40 2ReportSpamindependentvoter9998 hours agoJust proves the ancient words of wisdom "there ain't no free lunch". 23 2ReportSpamweld3878 hours agoWas that not the plan from the start? New World Order type stuff going on hey? Seems like they were saying the same thing about us in 08. Blame it on the greedy bankers with there fancy "investment instruments". In other words a turd all shined up and sold to the highest bidder. The USA owns a lot of Spain and Italy's bonds. Not a good deal for us if they nose dive in the abyss. If one thinks about it. This is the nature of the beast. Soon clean drinking water and plate of fresh food will be worth more then a bar of gold. 30 2ReportSpamBull Rider8 hours agoDOWN WITH THE RED SHIELD BANKSTER CARTEL 23 3ReportSpamAdd a commentReportPlease help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. 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