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Aug. 25, 2011, 5:42 p.m. EDT
By Eric Holthaus
In my last piece, Hurricane Irene had just been upgraded to a category 3 "major" hurricane, and forecasts showed the storm brushing the North Carolina coast on its way towards extreme coastal New England.
See Hurricane scenarios run from bad to worse.
That has changed a bit on Thursday, and the change is not very welcome.
The latest show Irene pushing inland through coastal North Carolina, on northwards through the Chesapeake, with a landfall within the five boroughs of New York City. See the tracks here.
Now, we're still two or three days away from Irene's outer rain bands brushing up against the White House lawn, and things can still fluctuate dozens or even hundreds of miles, but as we get closer and closer, our confidence as meteorologists is becoming stronger and stronger that someone's going to get hit, and get hit hard.
Evacuations begin as Irene nears U.S., preparing businesses for disaster, two campers charged in largest wildfire in Arizona history, dealing with health issues while running a company, stationery's new followers and Hollywood reinvents the war hero.
Irene has spent much of Wednesday and Thursday going through an extended eyewall replacement cycle, which essentially is a pause in the intensification process that refreshes the storm to continue strengthening. The National Hurricane Center still expects that Irene will become a Category 4 hurricane at some point on Friday.
As Irene nears North Carolina, evacuations have already been ordered, and the Outer Banks will be the first to vacate. The governors of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and New Jersey have already declared states of emergency to prepare for Irene. New York City will decide later today on whether to recommend evacuation for those living in flood-prone coastal sections of the city. See New York City flood zone map.
Folks, this is starting to get very real, very fast.
It sounds cliche, but possessions, as highly as our society values them, can be replaced. Lives cannot.
One of the places I'm most worried about is coastal Long Island.
If Long Islanders don't believe the seriousness of this situation yet, take a moment to look back on Hurricane Katrina's effect on coastal Mississippi. See more here.
While much of the country focused on New Orleans, more than 20 feet of storm surge, with 10-20 foot waves on top of that, swept over the Mississippi coastline up to 10 miles inland. For many, it was a forgotten tragedy.
Irene might not be that powerful, but if the current forecast track continues, we may be looking at severe storm surge along the south shore of Long Island.
As of Thursday's midday update, Irene's eye will likely make landfall in the Rockaways near JFK airport. At that point, hurricane force winds will likely extend 60 miles east of the landfall point, with a maximum storm surge of 10-15 feet. Ocean waves would at least double that height. That's enough to tear through natural barriers built up over hundreds of years, like Fire Island, and wipe coastal towns and cities clean. If you live in this area, pay close attention to flood maps, and DO NOT stay in these areas past Saturday afternoon. See flood maps here.
Weekend traffic to the Hamptons is bad enough. But 7 million people rushing to cross the handful of bridges that connect Long Island with the rest of the world would be pure madness. Do your neighbors a favor, and if you don't live within 10 miles of the shore, don't even think about evacuating. Let those that need to leave, leave first.
Now is the time to think about these kinds of questions with your family: Where do we live? How close to the water are we? Do our windows face the ocean? Where will we go if we need to leave? The American Red Cross has a hurricane preparedness checklist. Print out a few and give them to your friends and neighbors as well.
The Wall Street Journal's Sarah Needleman has a great video segment about how to prepare your small business for disaster. Check your insurance coverage, back up your important documents to the cloud, and have a continuity plan including landlines with your key employees should you have to operate from offsite for a few days. Watch here.
Residents of the Mid-Atlantic and New England, although they've had their share of storms in the past, obviously aren't nearly as accustomed to hurricanes as our friends down in Florida. My guess is that many will ignore the threat that should pay close attention (like those living in coastal areas), and many will fret needlessly (like those living in well-built houses in the D.C. suburbs). The best thing you can do for your own safety and the safety of others is to pay attention, have a plan in place, and follow directions from local officials.
Taking a look back at history, New York City's Department of Emergency Management has a good resource on historical hurricanes in New York City, and first on their list is the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane "” the only hurricane in modern times to directly make landfall in the five boroughs. Also on the list is the 1938 Long Island Express, still the worst storm ever to impact New England. More here.
Check out this old newsreel footage of the storm's aftermath.
The similarity between these storms and the latest forecast models for Irene is not lost on this meteorologist. In 1821, there was no subway system and the city's defenses were much weaker. Still, the East River and the Hudson met across Canal Street, and all of lower Manhattan was flooded.
This time around could be worse. Astronomically speaking, we are nearing the new moon, and the time of the month when the highest tides usually occur. What's more, Irene is currently forecast to affect the New York City area within an hour or so of high tide, the combination of which could add an additional six feet to the already incredible storm surge that Irene will bring. See more on spring tides here.
Meteorologist Eric Holthaus digs deeper into how weather and climate can affect markets for MarketWatch. He can be reached at wxriskforecaster@gmail.com. Check back each Friday for his latest.
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