9/14/2011 6:09 PM ET
Times are tough, but dwelling on the dangers won't help your portfolio. Instead, it's time to get greedy. Here's a strategy for buying stocks when things look bad, and 2 sectors that are worth a close look right now.
Anthony Mirhaydari
It's been a rough run for investors. Stocks have settled back to summer 2010's trading range. Job growth has stalled. The economy is on the precipice. Europe's banks are a mess. U.S. consumers are too scared to spend.
But there's more than just a slow economy at work. This is a continuation of a malaise that goes back more than a decade. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) is trading at prices first reached in 1998 -- a run of poor performance on a scale not seen since the Great Depression. No wonder so many investors, fearing a future of despair and decay, have been flocking to the safety of gold and U.S. Treasury bonds.
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The thing is, despair is the wrong emotion to have. Things are bad, but we're going to get through this patch.
Investors need to end their paralysis and beat back the bear market in fear. Money can still be made in turbulent, hair-raising, risky environments like this. It will take a lot of effort, a little hope and a little greed.
This week, I'll go over the reasons I'm hopeful as an investor. Then I'll give you a strategy and some stocks and exchange-traded funds to consider if you're ready to join the market fight.
Think of it as a strategy for the worst of times that will hold up as things start getting better.
Hope, not despairAs I outlined last week in "This is not a 'Max Max' economy," while today's economy is weak, the bottom isn't falling out. We're not fated to a dystopian future of scarcity and conflict.
In fact, a new recession is still unlikely given the strength of corporate balance sheets, ultralow interest rates and the lack of traditional drivers like overinvestment and bulging inventories.
Moreover, safe havens like Treasurys and precious metals are becoming increasingly less attractive than stocks, based on interest rates and earnings -- a situation that has marked the beginning of long, generational bull markets in stocks. Last week I showed how the earnings yield -- profits dividend by price -- on the S&P 500 is beating the pants off of Treasury bonds and corporate bonds on a scale not seen since the 1970s.
This is a reflection of the fact that stocks have been flat-lining since the '90s (and delivering weak returns, as the chart above shows) despite a huge increase in corporate profits over the same period. Second-quarter profits this year totaled an annualized $1.47 trillion in the second quarter, up from $478 billion in the second quarter of 1998.
To put it simply: Companies have been making more and more money, thanks in large part to rapid growth in foreign markets, so stock prices should be higher. Instead, they've been flat, because people just aren't interested in buying shares and taking risks.
Indeed, Citigroup analysts find that stocks should be trading at least 15% higher than they are now, assuming that current earnings continue into the future. In other words, even assuming that the 500 largest companies in the United States don't make a dime more than they are now, their stocks are still undervalued.
Is greed ever good?
But a deeply rooted fear that another recession or financial crisis that will crush those profits has convinced investors that T-bonds offering 1.9% annual return, or a shiny yellow metal valued mainly as a historical relic and for its ability to resist rust, are better investments than stocks offering an earnings yield of 6.3%. That yield -- combined with solid cash flow and solid balance sheets -- means far better returns than those of bonds, in the form of higher stock prices, dividends, share repurchases and more.
Here's why I'm hopeful this is going to change.
Greed, not fearFirst, the fear is going to fade. It's the latest form of the dynamic that pushed home prices well above justifiable levels during the housing bubble. And that dynamic is raw, unadulterated emotion. It was greed then. It's fear now. It will go back to good-old-fashioned greed soon enough.
After all, policymakers are showing increased inclination to support fragile growth, including President Barack Obama's new jobs proposal, an easing of the European Central Bank's rigid anti-inflation stance, and a Federal Reserve preparing new ways to push down long-term interest rates at next week's policy meeting. (For more on the Fed, review my Aug. 24 column, "Can the Fed chief calm our fears?") That should ease investors' fears.
Likewise, the eurozone debt crisis will be with us for a while, but leaders there have no choice but to continue the current strategy -- a combination of imposed losses on bondholders, forced austerity, and bailout funding -- and wait it out. But the worst fears won't come true. We aren't likely to see the euro fall or the European Union break up. According to UBS estimates, Germany would lose 25% its gross domestic product if it left the European Union; Greece would lose 50% or more.
I'm not hopeful because I think these problems will be resolved quickly and painlessly. I just think investors' fears will fade, because dwelling on low-probability disaster scenarios doesn't do anyone any good. They'll get back to the business of making money. Greed.
History suggests exactly this. Citigroup's Tobias Levkovich notes that over the past 40 years there have been only 61 weeks during which stocks were as attractively priced compared with bonds as they are now. In every single instance, stocks pushed higher in the year that followed -- by an average gain of nearly 25%.
Continued: Strength to move Single page12Next >RELATED ARTICLESAsk Anthony Mirhaydari: Where are stocks heading?- MSN Money2 keys to a real economic recovery - 1 - fixing the economy - MSN ...Pulling the plug on the economy? - 1 - debt & taxes - MSN MoneyHow to fix the black-hole economy - 1 - recession & recovery - MSN ...No inflation means no recovery - 1 - economic indicators - MSN MoneyCan the Fed chief calm our fears? - 1 - economy & recession - MSN ...VIDEO ON MSN MONEY/* /**/ var scp_UserRating=-1; down_arrow_hover= new Image(); down_arrow_hover.src = 'http://blu.stc.s-msn.com/br/scp/css/15/decoration/toolbar/rating/down_hover.gif'; down_arrow_normal= new Image(); down_arrow_normal.src = 'http://blu.stc.s-msn.com/br/scp/css/15/decoration/toolbar/rating/down_normal.gif'; up_arrow_hover= new Image(); up_arrow_hover.src = 'http://blu.stc.s-msn.com/br/scp/css/15/decoration/toolbar/rating/up_hover.gif'; up_arrow_normal= new Image(); up_arrow_normal.src = 'http://blu.stc.s-msn.com/br/scp/css/15/decoration/toolbar/rating/up_normal.gif'; var scp_thankyoutext = 'Thank you!'; var scp_thankyoualttext = 'You have voted on this'; var scp_votestext = '{0} votes'; var scp_votescount = 16; var scp_errmsg = 'Errors occured while saving your rating. 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Free market means that business does not run the government or write laws that are favorable to them. That all businesses are on an equal playing field. There is no government intervention and no collusion between businesses and industries. We do not have a free market system, only a happy illusion that one exists.
The stock market is great if you are on the inside and have lots of money. The average Joe is eaten alive by fees, is kept out of the knowledge loop and kept out of the big money making deals. Computers with programs written by people who would have been engineers and scientists run automatically based on secret algorithms that the average person has no knowledge. The average investor has as much chance of winning in the stock market as a GI facing a German Tiger tank with a peashooter.
The Supreme Court got it right, corporations are people who just happen to have money and influence.
1 0ReportSpamRe-TOG Re-TOG (Re-TOG) 1 hour agoLet's see, I invest to make money......Nothing else; And maybe with some luck and guts I may pass some onto my worthy children.....But God and my wife say all our children are worthy....So let me, not be the judge.
And it beats the hell out of playing pitch or cribbage with a bunch of old men.
0 0ReportSpammax sparticas2 hours agoIf your not a billionaire stay out of the market, it all computerized trading and short term profit takers, be afraid , be very afraid 4 0ReportSpamspeckintime3 hours agoTo be fearless when there is reason to be cautious is just plain stupidity, the stock market is being run like a poker game rather then a means of companies building revenue and building economies. Board of Directors and CEO’s are allowed to fleece honest investors, then you have your banksters putting up large sums so that they can sell at a profit when the stocks gain a few points. You have countries selling out their economies to make a few globalist super rich and you have these economist selling bull like a snake oil salesman.
5 0ReportSpamed nichols (Seriously1958) 3 hours agoWhat portfolio? 1 0ReportSpamMandie Lifeboats3 hours agoYour biggest enemy now? The EPA. You can be fear-less and they can make or keep you job-less.
3 3ReportSpambpx3 hours agoNo, the biggest fear are guys like you and the other pundits who write this stuff and pretend to call themselves "finacial professionals". I read your line often and find you( and others) so "after the Fact", Howard Cosell would be embarrassed. You go in circles with all the charts and graphs of your technical analysis and your fundamental views are lacking.
You are of little use and the only benefit gained by reading your by-line is it gives you something to do and provides fodder for Your job!
High frequency trading, black pools, everyone, pro and retail amature trading on the short end.
holding times in seconds and a SEC "looking the other way" These all contribute to current "game change" in the markets. Take alook at ibotson charts back to 26, seen anything like what is going on now or has been the last few years?--I think not!
8 0ReportSpamWealthybar.com63 hours agoIf you wanna date a rich soul mate?plzzz check my username out 1 1ReportSpamPor Lee Influenced4 hours agoBiggest enemy now? Financial Analysts! Hahahahaha! 2 0ReportSpambubblemania4 hours agoHis name is Flipper, Flipper.... 6 0ReportSpamBull Rider6 hours ago1 Timothy 6:7-10For we brought nothing into the world, and we can take nothing out of it. But if we have food and clothing, we will be content with that. People who want to get rich fall into temptation and a trap and into many foolish and harmful desires that plunge men into ruin and destruction. For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil. Some people, eager for money, have wandered from the faith and pierced themselves with many griefs. 15 10ReportSpamAdd a commentReportPlease help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. 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