Central bankers have provided liquidity with today's announcement; it does nothing to address the real problems of solvency in Greece, Italy, Spain, etc. (not to mention the banks). In the last bear market, stocks rallied significantly after similar announcements (numerous times) only to see 100% of those gains evaporate once reality set back in. Note the last line in the Bloomberg excerpt below:
"It is about protecting the liquidity of the European banks," Howard Ward, a money manager who helps oversee about $436.1 billion for Gamco Investors Inc. in Rye, New York, wrote in an e-mail. "The private sector has pulled back from funding these banks. So central banks are stepping in to make that dollar funding available. Good news is the banks get their dollar funding. Bad news is that the situation has gotten this dire."
If you review the monthly charts of the S&P 500 during the last bear market (below) and the current chart of the Euro Stoxx 50 Index (2nd chart), the answer appears to be “just getting started.” It should be noted that bearish signals on monthly charts are more important than those on a daily or weekly chart. Recently, the S&P 500 has started to lag the German Index, which has been a bearish signal in the past.
Compare points A, B, C, and D in the chart above to A, B, C, and D in the chart below. It can be expensive in the longer-term to ignore the facts on these charts. You may be able to compare the charts better here.
As a money manager, you are always nervous relative to the question, “Am I missing something?” To help answer that question, last night we reviewed all 223 weekly charts for the most liquid ETFs included in the CCM Asset Allocation Model (AAM).
There is next to nothing on the weekly charts to suggest the market has found a permanent bottom. Could stocks continue to rally, even for a few weeks? Sure, but the odds say the gains will be fully retraced in the coming months. The list below speaks volumes about the current outlook for the markets from a longer-term perspective. Our review of the charts was done in such a way as to bend over backwards looking for bullish signals - they are just not there, nor does it look like they will evolve from the current rally.
Our objective is to be properly positioned over the next three months to a year, not the next three days to three weeks.
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Copyright © 2010 Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC (CCM). .Terms of Use. This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of CCM. The opinions are subject to change without notice. This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. The charts and comments are not recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations are not predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the opinion of the author as to a range of possibilities going forward. All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. The information contained herein (including historical prices or values) has been obtained from sources that Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM) considers to be reliable; however, CCM makes no representation as to, or accepts any responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or any decision made or action taken by you or any third party in reliance upon the data. Some results are derived using historical estimations from available data. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with tax and investment advisors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. This memorandum is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS. CCM would like to thank StockCharts.com for helping Short Takes create great looking charts Short Takes is proudly powered by WordPress . Entries (RSS)
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Copyright © 2010 Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC (CCM). .Terms of Use. This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of CCM. The opinions are subject to change without notice. This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. The charts and comments are not recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations are not predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the opinion of the author as to a range of possibilities going forward. All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. The information contained herein (including historical prices or values) has been obtained from sources that Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM) considers to be reliable; however, CCM makes no representation as to, or accepts any responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or any decision made or action taken by you or any third party in reliance upon the data. Some results are derived using historical estimations from available data. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with tax and investment advisors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. This memorandum is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS. CCM would like to thank StockCharts.com for helping Short Takes create great looking charts Short Takes is proudly powered by WordPress . Entries (RSS)
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