One of the smartest hedge fund managers we know spends most of his day locked away in his office analyzing how the market consensus could be wrong. He hangs with au contraire crowd, breaking bread with contrarians and demands you check your cheerleader pom-poms at the door when visiting his office. Not that he takes action or trades on all or any of this, but his rigorous discipline of stress testing his perspectives, positions, and the conventional wisdom of the market is a lesson for all of us.
Our hope is the policymakers, especially the Fed, do the same. The world is experiencing the adverse consequences of negative real interest rates and yet the monetary policy prescription of choice is for more negative real interest rates.
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