Copper used to be said to be the metal with “a PhD in economics”. But lately, copper is just a doppelganger for whatever stock prices do. Now, the commodity that really tells us about the economy is lumber.
Lumber is unique among industrial commodities in terms of the balance that its prices portray about the conflict between supply and demand. Ups and downs in the housing market affect demand for lumber. But the input costs also vary according to the availability of raw timber, labor costs, electricity to run the mills, fuel to transport it, and space to store it. It lies at the crossroads of a complex set of economic forces.
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