Oct 18, 2011
The Tax Policy Center's analysis of candidate Herman Cain's 9-9-9 plan is out and man, it provides us with an embarrassment of riches in terms of which data to feature.
So let's stick with the "embarrassment of riches" theme and look at dollars of federal tax change by income class.
The first figure shows that relative to current tax law, average tax payments go up, on average, for the bottom 80% of households, including the bottom fifth (average income, $10,100) by about $1,900, and for the middle fifth (avg inc: about $50,700) by about $4,300. The average tax payment for the top fifth (avg inc: $273,000) falls by about $14,400.
Source: TPC, see link above; changes are relative to current tax policy.
But aggregating things up that way obscures just how extremely regressive 9-9-9 really is. If you break out the top 1% (avg inc: $1.8 million) and the tippy-top 0.1% (avg inc: $7.9 million), that's where you really see the plan go to work. It reduces the tax burden of the top 1% by $238,000 and that of the top 0.1% by"¦wait for it"¦$1.4 freakin' million!
Souce: TPC, see link above; changes are relative to current tax policy.
Conclusions:
–to implement the 9-9-9 plan would truly be the most dramatic and regressive shifting of the tax burden in the history of our nation;
–based on this policy, Herman Cain's campaign is deeply out of touch with the challenges facing the American middle class;
–the Koch brothers may view these results as showing what smart investors they are, but I think they’ve overreached.
And as usual, most analyses assume that people don’t change their behavior to avoid taxes. Most obviously, by incorporating and taking income as dividends (to name just one example.)
Very true. Some take such comfort in their false static analysis.
Yes, the rich could do that, but the poor, no way. Basically, for the bottom three quintiles, those rates are unavoidable. For the rich, they would be even better off.
Thanks for yet another fantastic post. I’m curious to know how these changes look in terms of percentage of income.
Here they are, from the link in the post:
Percent change in after-tax income, 9-9-9 plan compared to current tax law
Lowest Quintile -17.0 Second Quintile -13.0 Middle Quintile -7.7 Fourth Quintile -3.0 Top Quintile 12.2 Top 1 Percent 26.9 Top 0.1 Percent 35.4
Source: Tax Policy Center
What it looks like relative to disposable income gets even worse, of course. Shifting the tax burden to people who only manage to feed themselves thanks to food stamps has rather grim implications.
Do you think you can find a reputable source?
[...] 9-9-9: The Most Massively Regressive Redistribution of Taxes Ever Seriously Considered, by Jared Be…: The Tax Policy Center's analysis of candidate Herman Cain's 9-9-9 plan is out and man, it provides us with an embarrassment of riches in terms of which data to feature. [...]
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Jared Bernstein's areas of expertise include federal and state economic and fiscal policies, income inequality and mobility, trends in employment and earnings, international comparisons, and the analysis of financial and housing markets.Read more
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