Dragon Tail Risk: The Cost of a China Crash

The China hard-landing debate is a classic tail risk story -- an unlikely scenario, but if it materializes the consequences could be catastrophic. Because of their close trade links, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong would be among the first to feel the pain should China's growth weaken dramatically. However, it would probably take a shock even bigger than what followed the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy to spread significant damage beyond Asia.