Yesterday, in projecting where U.S. GDP will most likely be in the months ahead, we closed our post with the following comment:
Overall, the U.S. economy is continuing to perform as expected. We anticipate that growth will continue at a similar pace to 2011-Q3 through the end of the year, however we expect that the U.S. economy will begin to slow significantly in the second quarter of 2012, based upon dividend futures data for the S&P 500.
The only problem with that comment is the link, where we pointed back to a post from June 2011, which was based on analysis when we only had the dividend futures for the S&P 500 through the end of the second quarter of 2012 available to us.
Since we now have dividend futures data available to us through the fourth quarter of 2012, the chart below updates the future we see:
Typically, when the economy and stock market are growing, quarterly dividends per share will rise from quarter to quarter, peaking each year in the fourth quarter (as a number of companies that pay their dividends annually issue their dividends at this time.)
When there's a deviation in that pattern, it indicates that something else is happening. For example, if you the historical data recorded through this point of 2011, you see that quarterly dividends per share stall out at $6.49 and $6.50 per share between the second and third quarters of 2011. This period of time coincides with what we've previously described as a microrecession, which has been characterized by low economic growth.
We should also note that dividends per share are a bit of a lagging indicator - economy-driven changes tend to show up in the dividend data a quarter later.
Getting back to the present, what's unusual in the chart above is that the dividends currently expected to be paid out in 2012 are deviating from the basic pattern that would be consistent with steady economic growth. There are two places in the chart above that suggest that the road ahead for the U.S. economy will be rocky in 2012, which we see as the dips in the amount of the quarterly dividends expected to be paid in the second quarter of 2012 and again in the fourth quarter of 2012.
What the S&P 500's dividend futures are signaling is that these quarters will be pretty lackluster in terms of overall economic growth. Given the lagging effect of the dividends, we currently expect the U.S. economy to begin slowing significantly in the first quarter of 2012, recover a bit, then fall back in the second half of the year.
If it helps put things into a larger perspective, it's perhaps easier to see what dividends per share look like in good times and not-so-good times by considering the historical data for the S&P 500's quarterly cash dividends per share going back to 1988, which Standard and Poor makes easily available in their Earnings and Estimates spreadsheet (which is available under the "S&P 500 Monthly Performance" section in their Market Attributes Series).
In this chart, we've emphasized the deflation phase of the "Dot Com" stock market bubble - in addition to containing a recession, the period of time following the official end of the recession in November 2001 was characterized by what has been described as a "jobless recovery".
In this case, economic recovery in the U.S. didn't really take hold until the U.S. government acted to correct the imbalance it had created in the markets that led to the formation of the "Dot Com" Bubble in the first place. Both the U.S. economy and the stock market began growing steadily again immediately afterward.
What do you suppose the U.S. government has done now that will apparently have to wait until after 2012 to be corrected?
Labels: dividends, forecasting, SP 500
- posted by Ironman at 6:20 AM | Permalink | Share | var addthis_config = {"data_track_clickback":true}; | << Home Unexpectedly Intriguing!
About Political Calculations
blog advertising is good for you Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at: ironman at politicalcalculations.com Thanks in advance!
Most Popular PostsThe S&P 500 at Your Fingertips Reckoning the Odds of Recession Should You Trade in Your Gas Guzzler? What Are the Chances Your Marriage Will Last? Tipping Around the World What's Your Body Fat Percentage? The Odds of Dying, Again! The Biggest Issue of 2010, In One Chart Hauser's Law Average Lifetime Earnings Trajectories by Education
Quick IndexFirst Time Visitor to Political Calculations? On the Moneyed Midways A Lot, But Not All, of Our Tools
Recent Posts Projecting Fourth Quarter 2011's GDP Happy Halloween! Now, Have a Seat.... Inside the Stock Market's October 2011 Rally The Top 1% vs the S&P 500 The Real Story Behind "Rising" U.S. Income Inequal... The Shocking Trend In U.S. Individual Income Inequ... What Driving the S&P 500? Over 50% Probability of New Jobless Claims Over 40... The Plight of Teens and Young Adults from 2006 to ... Average Unemployment Insurance Tax Rates by State,... U.S. GDP Temperature GaugePolitical Calculations' U.S. GDP Temperature Gauge provides a means to quickly evaluate the growth rate of the U.S. economy against the backdrop of how the economy has performed since 1980, with the "temperature" color spectrum ranging from a recessionary "cold" (purple) through an expansionary "hot" (red).
The GDP Temperature Gauge presents both the annualized GDP growth rate as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports for a one-quarter period and also as averaged over a two quarter period, which smooths out the volatility seen in the one-quarter data and provides a better indication of the relative strength of the U.S. economy over time.
Recession Probability TrackPolitical Calculations' Recession Probability Track shows the probability that the U.S. economy will be in recession 12 months from the indicated date (shown in red) while revealing the probability trend over the past four years.
Previously, the probability of recession peaked at 50% on 4 April 2007, which means that March-April 2008 was the most likely period in which the NBER would have found the U.S. to be in recession.
As it happens, they almost did. The NBER instead chose December 2007 as the beginning month of the most recent recession (we had found a 46% probability for a recession beginning in that month!)
On the Moneyed MidwaysPolitical Calculations is also the online home of On the Moneyed Midways (aka OMM), a review of the best posts contributed to the week's best business and money-related blog carnivals, which we ran as a regular weekly feature for the five years from 2006 through 2010.
The link below will take you to the running index containing our most recent back issues (you can easily navigate the index to find older editions.)
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Recommended ViewingThe Tudors: The Complete Series
Recently ShoppedBoss Black LeatherPlus Executive Chair Microsoft Office 2010 Home & Student LEGO Harry Potter: Years 1-4 The Buddha Quicken Deluxe 2011
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About Political Calculations
blog advertising is good for you Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at: ironman at politicalcalculations.com Thanks in advance!
Most Popular PostsThe S&P 500 at Your Fingertips Reckoning the Odds of Recession Should You Trade in Your Gas Guzzler? What Are the Chances Your Marriage Will Last? Tipping Around the World What's Your Body Fat Percentage? The Odds of Dying, Again! The Biggest Issue of 2010, In One Chart Hauser's Law Average Lifetime Earnings Trajectories by Education
Quick IndexFirst Time Visitor to Political Calculations? On the Moneyed Midways A Lot, But Not All, of Our Tools
Recent Posts Projecting Fourth Quarter 2011's GDP Happy Halloween! Now, Have a Seat.... Inside the Stock Market's October 2011 Rally The Top 1% vs the S&P 500 The Real Story Behind "Rising" U.S. Income Inequal... The Shocking Trend In U.S. Individual Income Inequ... What Driving the S&P 500? Over 50% Probability of New Jobless Claims Over 40... The Plight of Teens and Young Adults from 2006 to ... Average Unemployment Insurance Tax Rates by State,... U.S. GDP Temperature GaugePolitical Calculations' U.S. GDP Temperature Gauge provides a means to quickly evaluate the growth rate of the U.S. economy against the backdrop of how the economy has performed since 1980, with the "temperature" color spectrum ranging from a recessionary "cold" (purple) through an expansionary "hot" (red).
The GDP Temperature Gauge presents both the annualized GDP growth rate as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports for a one-quarter period and also as averaged over a two quarter period, which smooths out the volatility seen in the one-quarter data and provides a better indication of the relative strength of the U.S. economy over time.
Recession Probability TrackPolitical Calculations' Recession Probability Track shows the probability that the U.S. economy will be in recession 12 months from the indicated date (shown in red) while revealing the probability trend over the past four years.
Previously, the probability of recession peaked at 50% on 4 April 2007, which means that March-April 2008 was the most likely period in which the NBER would have found the U.S. to be in recession.
As it happens, they almost did. The NBER instead chose December 2007 as the beginning month of the most recent recession (we had found a 46% probability for a recession beginning in that month!)
On the Moneyed MidwaysPolitical Calculations is also the online home of On the Moneyed Midways (aka OMM), a review of the best posts contributed to the week's best business and money-related blog carnivals, which we ran as a regular weekly feature for the five years from 2006 through 2010.
The link below will take you to the running index containing our most recent back issues (you can easily navigate the index to find older editions.)
OMM's Most Recent Editions - with links to our older editions!
Site DataThis site is primarily powered by:
Visitors since December 6, 2004:
var site="sm7politicalcalculations"
CSS ValidationRSS Site Feed
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The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.
Other Cool ResourcesZunZun - Exceptional regression analysis tool. Wolfram Integrator - Solve integrals. Do calculus! Create a Graph - Easy-to-use basic graph-making tool. Many Eyes - Data visualization extraordinaire! Wolfram Alpha - Computational knowledge engine. Khan Academy - Math & science video mini-lectures!
Archives December 2004 January 2005 February 2005 March 2005 April 2005 May 2005 June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 November 2005 December 2005 January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 April 2006 May 2006 June 2006 July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 December 2006 January 2007 February 2007 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007 June 2007 July 2007 August 2007 September 2007 October 2007 November 2007 December 2007 January 2008 February 2008 March 2008 April 2008 May 2008 June 2008 July 2008 August 2008 September 2008 October 2008 November 2008 December 2008 January 2009 February 2009 March 2009 April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2009 December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 July 2010 August 2010 September 2010 October 2010 November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 March 2011 April 2011 May 2011 June 2011 July 2011 August 2011 September 2011 October 2011 November 2011 if (location.href.indexOf("archive")!=-1) document.write("Current Posts");Bloodhoundblog Budgets Are Sexy Cafe Hayek Carpe Diem Cheap, Healthy, Good Copywriting Tips Core77 Coyote Blog Craig Harper Darwin's Finance Digerati Life, The Division of Labour Dough Roller, The Eclectecon Econlog Economics Roundtable EconomicsUK Entrepreneurial Mind Environmental Economics Escape from Cubicle Nation Execupundit FiscalGeek Fortify Your Oasis Get Rich Slowly Gongol Good Financial Cents HR Bartender Hot Air i4cp Productivity Innocent Bystanders Innovation and Growth Instapundit Intangible Economy I've Paid Twice for This Already Joanne Jacobs Kaus Files Len Penzo dot Com Mahalanobis Making Ripples Market Power Mechonomics Mighty Bargain Hunter Monevator Money Blue Book My Dollar Plan New Economist Newmark's Door Nina Simosko Physorg Private Sector Development Radio Equalizer Real Clear Politics Richard Fernandez Roger L. Simon SCSU Scholars Science and Money Skeptical Optimist Sound Politics SOX First Speculist, The Sports Economist, The squawkfox Three Star Leadership Tim Worstall Tough Money Love Townhall Trusted Advisor Uncommon Misperceptions voluntaryXchange WILLisms Winterspeak
Market LinksBig Picture, The Crackerjack Finance CXO Advisory Group Disciplined Approach to Investing Dividend Guy, The Doug Short Evidence Investing Fat Pitch Financials FX Investment Strategies Oilprice
Charities We SupportAmerican Red Cross Children's Heart Foundation SMA Foundation
Recommended ReadingAngel in the Whirlwind Bailout Nation Cartoon Guide to Statistics A Comprehensive Guide to the Peloponnesian War The Complete Personal Memoirs of Ulysses S. Grant The Count of Monte Cristo Ender's Game Gardner's Art Through the Ages Empire of Wealth How to Make Presentations to Councils and Boards Juran's Quality Handbook Marks' Standard Handbook The Second World War Stocks for the Long Run Why Smart Executives Fail
Recommended ViewingThe Tudors: The Complete Series
Recently ShoppedBoss Black LeatherPlus Executive Chair Microsoft Office 2010 Home & Student LEGO Harry Potter: Years 1-4 The Buddha Quicken Deluxe 2011
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The S&P 500 at Your Fingertips Reckoning the Odds of Recession Should You Trade in Your Gas Guzzler? What Are the Chances Your Marriage Will Last? Tipping Around the World What's Your Body Fat Percentage? The Odds of Dying, Again! The Biggest Issue of 2010, In One Chart Hauser's Law Average Lifetime Earnings Trajectories by Education
First Time Visitor to Political Calculations? On the Moneyed Midways A Lot, But Not All, of Our Tools
Political Calculations' U.S. GDP Temperature Gauge provides a means to quickly evaluate the growth rate of the U.S. economy against the backdrop of how the economy has performed since 1980, with the "temperature" color spectrum ranging from a recessionary "cold" (purple) through an expansionary "hot" (red).
The GDP Temperature Gauge presents both the annualized GDP growth rate as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports for a one-quarter period and also as averaged over a two quarter period, which smooths out the volatility seen in the one-quarter data and provides a better indication of the relative strength of the U.S. economy over time.
Political Calculations' Recession Probability Track shows the probability that the U.S. economy will be in recession 12 months from the indicated date (shown in red) while revealing the probability trend over the past four years.
Previously, the probability of recession peaked at 50% on 4 April 2007, which means that March-April 2008 was the most likely period in which the NBER would have found the U.S. to be in recession.
As it happens, they almost did. The NBER instead chose December 2007 as the beginning month of the most recent recession (we had found a 46% probability for a recession beginning in that month!)
Political Calculations is also the online home of On the Moneyed Midways (aka OMM), a review of the best posts contributed to the week's best business and money-related blog carnivals, which we ran as a regular weekly feature for the five years from 2006 through 2010.
The link below will take you to the running index containing our most recent back issues (you can easily navigate the index to find older editions.)
OMM's Most Recent Editions - with links to our older editions!
This site is primarily powered by:
Visitors since December 6, 2004:
CSS Validation
RSS Site Feed
JavaScript
The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.
Other Cool ResourcesZunZun - Exceptional regression analysis tool. Wolfram Integrator - Solve integrals. Do calculus! Create a Graph - Easy-to-use basic graph-making tool. Many Eyes - Data visualization extraordinaire! Wolfram Alpha - Computational knowledge engine. Khan Academy - Math & science video mini-lectures!
Archives December 2004 January 2005 February 2005 March 2005 April 2005 May 2005 June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 November 2005 December 2005 January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 April 2006 May 2006 June 2006 July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 December 2006 January 2007 February 2007 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007 June 2007 July 2007 August 2007 September 2007 October 2007 November 2007 December 2007 January 2008 February 2008 March 2008 April 2008 May 2008 June 2008 July 2008 August 2008 September 2008 October 2008 November 2008 December 2008 January 2009 February 2009 March 2009 April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2009 December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 July 2010 August 2010 September 2010 October 2010 November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 March 2011 April 2011 May 2011 June 2011 July 2011 August 2011 September 2011 October 2011 November 2011 if (location.href.indexOf("archive")!=-1) document.write("Current Posts");Bloodhoundblog Budgets Are Sexy Cafe Hayek Carpe Diem Cheap, Healthy, Good Copywriting Tips Core77 Coyote Blog Craig Harper Darwin's Finance Digerati Life, The Division of Labour Dough Roller, The Eclectecon Econlog Economics Roundtable EconomicsUK Entrepreneurial Mind Environmental Economics Escape from Cubicle Nation Execupundit FiscalGeek Fortify Your Oasis Get Rich Slowly Gongol Good Financial Cents HR Bartender Hot Air i4cp Productivity Innocent Bystanders Innovation and Growth Instapundit Intangible Economy I've Paid Twice for This Already Joanne Jacobs Kaus Files Len Penzo dot Com Mahalanobis Making Ripples Market Power Mechonomics Mighty Bargain Hunter Monevator Money Blue Book My Dollar Plan New Economist Newmark's Door Nina Simosko Physorg Private Sector Development Radio Equalizer Real Clear Politics Richard Fernandez Roger L. Simon SCSU Scholars Science and Money Skeptical Optimist Sound Politics SOX First Speculist, The Sports Economist, The squawkfox Three Star Leadership Tim Worstall Tough Money Love Townhall Trusted Advisor Uncommon Misperceptions voluntaryXchange WILLisms Winterspeak
Market LinksBig Picture, The Crackerjack Finance CXO Advisory Group Disciplined Approach to Investing Dividend Guy, The Doug Short Evidence Investing Fat Pitch Financials FX Investment Strategies Oilprice
Charities We SupportAmerican Red Cross Children's Heart Foundation SMA Foundation
Recommended ReadingAngel in the Whirlwind Bailout Nation Cartoon Guide to Statistics A Comprehensive Guide to the Peloponnesian War The Complete Personal Memoirs of Ulysses S. Grant The Count of Monte Cristo Ender's Game Gardner's Art Through the Ages Empire of Wealth How to Make Presentations to Councils and Boards Juran's Quality Handbook Marks' Standard Handbook The Second World War Stocks for the Long Run Why Smart Executives Fail
Recommended ViewingThe Tudors: The Complete Series
Recently ShoppedBoss Black LeatherPlus Executive Chair Microsoft Office 2010 Home & Student LEGO Harry Potter: Years 1-4 The Buddha Quicken Deluxe 2011
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The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.
ZunZun - Exceptional regression analysis tool. Wolfram Integrator - Solve integrals. Do calculus! Create a Graph - Easy-to-use basic graph-making tool. Many Eyes - Data visualization extraordinaire! Wolfram Alpha - Computational knowledge engine. Khan Academy - Math & science video mini-lectures!
Bloodhoundblog Budgets Are Sexy Cafe Hayek Carpe Diem Cheap, Healthy, Good Copywriting Tips Core77 Coyote Blog Craig Harper Darwin's Finance Digerati Life, The Division of Labour Dough Roller, The Eclectecon Econlog Economics Roundtable EconomicsUK Entrepreneurial Mind Environmental Economics Escape from Cubicle Nation Execupundit FiscalGeek Fortify Your Oasis Get Rich Slowly Gongol Good Financial Cents HR Bartender Hot Air i4cp Productivity Innocent Bystanders Innovation and Growth Instapundit Intangible Economy I've Paid Twice for This Already Joanne Jacobs Kaus Files Len Penzo dot Com Mahalanobis Making Ripples Market Power Mechonomics Mighty Bargain Hunter Monevator Money Blue Book My Dollar Plan New Economist Newmark's Door Nina Simosko Physorg Private Sector Development Radio Equalizer Real Clear Politics Richard Fernandez Roger L. Simon SCSU Scholars Science and Money Skeptical Optimist Sound Politics SOX First Speculist, The Sports Economist, The squawkfox Three Star Leadership Tim Worstall Tough Money Love Townhall Trusted Advisor Uncommon Misperceptions voluntaryXchange WILLisms Winterspeak
Big Picture, The Crackerjack Finance CXO Advisory Group Disciplined Approach to Investing Dividend Guy, The Doug Short Evidence Investing Fat Pitch Financials FX Investment Strategies Oilprice
American Red Cross Children's Heart Foundation SMA Foundation
Angel in the Whirlwind Bailout Nation Cartoon Guide to Statistics A Comprehensive Guide to the Peloponnesian War The Complete Personal Memoirs of Ulysses S. Grant The Count of Monte Cristo Ender's Game Gardner's Art Through the Ages Empire of Wealth How to Make Presentations to Councils and Boards Juran's Quality Handbook Marks' Standard Handbook The Second World War Stocks for the Long Run Why Smart Executives Fail
The Tudors: The Complete Series
Boss Black LeatherPlus Executive Chair Microsoft Office 2010 Home & Student LEGO Harry Potter: Years 1-4 The Buddha Quicken Deluxe 2011
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