NRO's Andrew Stiles flags this exchange from Congressional Budget Office director Douglas Elmendorf's testimony before the Senate Budget Committee ealier this week:
The quote that matters starts around 1:25, when Elmendorf says that, according to CBO's estimates, with the stimulus legislation in place, "the level of GDP would be a little lower at the end. That is, a net negative effect on the growth of GDP over 10 years." Elmendorf then confirms that CBO estimates that the economic drag will continue in the following decade:
SESSIONS: And in the next 10 years, since you're carrying that debt and paying interest on it and the stimulus value is long since gone, it would be a continual negative of some effect?
ELMENDORF: Yes, it would represent a drag on the level of GDP beyond that, if no other actions were taken.
As with all CBO's projections, you have to take these with a grain of salt, especially when you start looking out two decades into the future. I've been critical of the way folks have used the CBO's stimulus job-creation numbers in the past, and this sort of long-term economic forecasting is not the most precise tool either, to say the least. Counterfactuals"”like asking what economic growth would have looked like the absence of the stimulus"”probably tell us more about our current economic assumptions than about alternate economic timelines.
Still, it's worth noting, if only because even the mildly Keynesian congressional scorekeeper agrees that borrowing $800 billion dollars ultimately creates a drag on the economy and a net loss in economic performance relative to what otherwise might have been. And yet the administration went ahead with the legislation anyway, arguing that it would be more or less a free lunch in the long run.
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But none of the people making those decisions was personally hurt by the impact, so it's all good.
"...borrowing $800 billion dollars..." _
~40% of stim monies were tax cutz
I think you believe you're making a point.
Ive heard this before, do you have some kind of proof of that claim?
broaden ur sources, beyond faux news & radio entertainment, by doing ur own research.
Broaden your sources beyond Democrat talking points. May I suggest a dictionary to start with?
aint no TP to restate the fact that ~40% of the stim monies were the payroll tax cutz. jeesch
Great parody - fits nicely with Barton's recent discourse on the lack of literacy among the young.
Or were you serious with the "cutz"? If so, you are sad and pathetic. The future holds nothing for you, go find a rope and a stout beam and cure your subset of the worlds' troubles...
~40% of stim monies were tax cutz
Really? What exactly did the tax rate change to?
If you're GE, zero percent.
Keynes RIP, once again. The third time was not a charm.
Has anyone seen my surprised face? I cant find it anywhere.
It's a "net negative" right now--spending 10% of GDP in deficits to get a 2% growth rate is not a recipe for success.
No that is exactly what I am talking about dude. Very cool indeed.
www.totally-anon.us.tc
They needed a bigger stimulus.....and more debt....and everything would be peachie-keen Europe okay.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT When you have a functioning economy, Keynesian stimulas can appear to work. But when your whole economy is a matter of borrowing...well, the well runs dry.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/.....uture-work
Great links.
The Oracle Of Democratic Part-i:
"The CBO was 100% right about Obamacare, but they have been corrupted and are totally untrustworthy now."
CAPTION
"...then you squeeze your hands together and it sounds like a fart."
LOL!
"This move, I call 'the speculum'. In cattle, you have to make sure the cow is in estrus, but with an economy, that's not necessary."
CAPTION:
"...so then I dumped the airbrakes and he went over me and I ended up right in his six. While I was at the Fed I played that game so much, I got pretty good."
CAPTION:
"And that's it! The 'hand jive' really is that simple."
CAPTION (from All the Right Moves)
Salvucci, he didn't quit. None of us quit. I don't know. We beat those guys asses up and down that field tonight! We got nothing to be ashamed of, right? Isn't that right? Maybe the scoreboard doesn't say it, but we won that game. We held them. It was just a fluke. That's all. It's just a fluke.
CAPTION
"Ok, I'm going to start moving my hands apart..and you just say 'when.' I'm sure you've got nothing to be embarrassed about, Barry."
So the CBO is now saying what I said before it happened. Why dont I have a cushy DC job (other than the fact that I wouldnt accept it)?
Of course, even joe acknowledged (sorta) that the long term effect was negative, he just didnt give a damn.
because it wasn't negative for government employees, the only thing altruistic joe cares about.
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