While the stock market continued to crumble this week under the weight of the European situation, the U.S. economy turned in one of its better performances of the year. Retail sales continued to grow at a moderate but steady rate, prices fell, housing showed signs of life, and even the manufacturing industry seems to be recovering from its summer slumber. Initial unemployment claims managed to continue their slow but steady decline of the last two months, bolstering the employment outlook in the months ahead. If only Europe could get its act together.
Consumer Prices Dip 0.1% In a welcome relief from the past several months, prices actually fell in October by 0.1%. Though falling energy prices were a major contributor to the decline, quite a few of categories saw declines, including air fares, new and used cars, and recreation. Interestingly, spending in these very categories has improved recently as prices have fallen. On the other side of the equation, rents, medical costs, and apparel increased (I believe this was responsible for the decline in apparel sales in last month's retail sales report).
There may be more good news in the months ahead. The producer price index, which often presages declines in the CPI, was down 0.3% in October. While energy was again the primary culprit, I was pleased to see food registering its lowest price increase of the year. Those lower prices should turn up in the grocery store next year.
The CPI report was welcome news after three months of increases in the 0.3% range that annualize at close to a 4% rate. Although consumer incomes have generally trended up for most of the year, inflation has wiped out those gains and then some. It would appear that over the summer consumers dipped into their savings to finance some of that steady-Eddie spending performance I spoke of earlier. As consumer incomes now look to grow faster than inflation, that worrying trend of dipping into savings appears to be coming to an end. We'll learn more about that in next week's personal income and expenditures report.
I am also glad to finally see that the year-over-year inflation rate now appears to have peaked out at 3.9% in September before falling back to 3.5% this month. That 3.9% rate was painfully close to the 4%-5% range almost always associated with a recession. With the possible exception of a recession in the 1950s, every postwar recession has been proceeded by a major runup in the rate of inflation. It is inflation that breaks the virtuous cycle of more spending, more production, more employment, more income, and finally back to more spending. As prices rise faster than wages (most of the time, wage increases are pretty close to price increases, but wages almost always lag prices as prices surge unexpectedly), consumers have less available income, which causes a fall in demand. At that point, the recession is on its way and the virtuous cycle turns vicious.
Is Manufacturing Finally Out of Its Funk? The manufacturing sector led the economy out of recession in 2009 and had two relatively good years before stumbling a bit this summer. A sagging manufacturing economy this summer scared a lot of economists into predicting a double-dip recession. A combination of tsunami-related supply issues, tornadoes this spring, and inventory adjustments all converged to produce a few negative industrial production numbers this year. Things seemed to have turned in November as industrial production grew 0.7%, the second-best performance of 2011 (led by autos and a booming mining, oil, and gas sector). What happens over the next year will be a balancing act between domestic auto demand, Boeing shipping new aircraft (at last), a booming oil and mining sector, and maybe a tiny bit of help from housing, weighed against a worldwide economic slowdown, especially in Europe. My guess is that manufacturers will do well on average but those with too much European exposure will be hurt--perhaps badly.
Eric Landry, the director of our industrial team, provides his summary of this month's IP report below:
Industrial production shows impressive strength largely driven by auto. October industrial production, at a 94.7 index value, increased an impressive 0.7 from September's slight downwardly revised figure. Year-over-year, the overall index sits 3.9% above last year's mark, an improvement from September's 3.1% gain and the best year-over-year performance since April. As far as industries are concerned, manufacturing increased 4.1% from last year, mining increased 6%, and utility activity was about flat year over year. The big driver of the strong manufacturing performance was clearly automotive, as it propelled consumer durable production 2.1% higher on a month-to-month basis. Much of the inordinate strength in auto is undoubtedly due to the industry getting back on its feet after the severe disruption in its supply chain back in March, so we don't expect the outsize strength to continue forever. But with the industry not yet operating at what we'd consider a normalized selling rate (SAAR), we don't expect a drastic falloff either. Overall, industrial production has a long way to go before it matches its pre-recession level, as the index still sits about 6% below its late 2007 highs. We wouldn't be surprised to see at least a few more months of similarly strong industrial activity to close out 2011 and begin 2012, as some of the nondurable categories we look to for indications of near-term movements are acting OK. Over the longer term, we're still nervous. Capacity utilization took another step up in October, finishing at 77.8%. This is up pretty impressively from 77.3% in September but still about 2.6% below its long-term average.Housing, a Little Light at the End of the Tunnel Builder sentiment earlier in the week, housing starts, and most importantly permits all pointed to a mildly stronger housing market. While the numbers weren't that much of an improvement, I think they might represent a key inflection point. After a relatively strong September, the herd of economists and I assumed that the housing data would collapse again in October. Instead, much of the housing-related data shot up again and most other categories were basically flat, not down. Eric Landry analyzed this week's housing data as follows:
NAHB/Wells Fargo Homebuilder Confidence Index suggests there's a tiny whiff of optimism infiltrating the new-home market. The monthly reading of the mood of the nation's builders increased to 20 in November from a revised 17 in October. While still considerably below the important 50 level that separates growth from contraction, November's increase is significant. It marks the highest level the diffusion index has attained since the tax-credit-enhanced days of May 2010, when it momentarily reached 22. Aside from that one-time burst, the confidence index hasn't been this high since all the way back in April 2008. The index tends to track decently with single-family starts with a bit of a lead, so any movement upward may be a good sign for future activity. And though it's a long way from signaling a genuinely healthy market, November's increase is a good start.
October home starts show little sequential movement, but permits tick up on the heels of continued multifamily strength. Total housing starts, at 628,000 SAAR, were roughly equal to September's revised rate, with single-family increasing 4% to a 430,000 SAAR but the volatile 5-plus unit category declining 13% to 183,000 SAAR. The north region was up 17% sequentially, while the west region was down a similar percentage. Single-family activity continues to limp along the bottom in a tight range between 400,000 and 550,000 SAAR for the past three-plus years. October permits told a slightly more positive story than actual starts, however, with total permissions increasing 11% sequentially to 653,000 SAAR. This was the most seasonally adjusted permits issued since the tax-credit-fueled March 2010 performance. Single-family permits were up 5% sequentially and 5-plus units were up a strong 30% from September, reflecting continued strong but volatile activity in multifamily construction. Like with overall starts, permits are showing little direct evidence they're ready to break out of the more than three year long channel they're currently mired in, with activity constrained to a range of between 500,000 and 700,000 total permits for the past several years. However, with builder confidence ticking up ever so slightly, the seeds of recovery may be starting to germinate.
Second GDP Estimate Harder to Estimate than the First Last month we got the first of three estimates of third-quarter GDP growth. Next week we will see the second estimate, and the final estimate will arrive in late December.
The original estimate showed GDP growth of 2.5%, and the consensus is that the second, more accurate reading will show modestly slower growth of 2.3%. However, because several components of GDP were estimates the first time around, many of which proved to be wide of the mark, a new estimate of anywhere between 2% and 3% would not surprise me. The balance of trade data used to calculate exports and imports proved to be particularly off--the government didn't even get the direction of the change right for September. It turns out that higher exports and lower imports could provide a relatively large boost to GDP. Wholesale and retail inventories also showed an unusually large discrepancy between the original estimates to compile GDP and the final report we saw this week. The magnitude here was larger than the balance of trade deficit estimation and unfortunately in the opposite direction. However, because there is an interaction between sales, prices, and inventories that only government statisticians can see, the range of possibilities for the second GDP estimate remains unusually wide.
In my opinion, the potential reduction in the GDP estimate--even if GDP turns out to be lower than consensus--is not a big deal. That is because the bulk of the reduction comes from inventories that are being kept at unusually low levels and will probably have to be restocked in the fourth quarter. Even before the upcoming adjustment, inventories took over 1% off of GDP and now that number is likely to be closer to 2%. An inventory adjustment this large so early in a recovery is unusual and reflects the conservative outlook of businesses. Based on recent sales data, that outlook may prove to be too conservative.
Personal Income and Spending Data Due I don't have any particular beefs with the consensus forecast that personal income will be up 0.2% and spending up 0.3%. They could both prove to a little light based on the retail sales data this week and the employment report of several weeks ago, though not enough to argue about. More importantly, sharp revisions to the employment reports for both August and September are likely to result in at least a partial revision of the negative income number the government previously reported. This would help explain how retail sales could be so strong in the face of some pretty negative income figures.
Expectations for Existing Home Sales Seem Conservative Given that last month's existing home sales number was low, and this week's other housing metrics looked a little better, I'm surprised that the consensus is calling for a decline in existing home sales to 4.8 million from 4.9 million. I think there is a real possibility that existing home sales could be flat or up a touch from September's lackluster performance.
The consensus seems to finally have come to the conclusion that the U.S. economy will not double dip. But nobody--including me--is willing to go out on a limb to project a very robust 2012. High debt, a poor housing market, lack of consumer confidence, high unemployment--we have all heard about the stumbling blocks. But is there anything at all that could surprise dour economists on the upside?
Certainly this week's housing data seem to suggest that there might be some stirrings of life in a market that has been flat on its back. Homebuilder sentiment, housing starts, and more forward-looking housing permits all had a very nice October. This would be the second month in a row that trends here have looked better. It wouldn't take a lot more to make housing a net add to GDP instead of a detractor as it's been for most of the recovery.
The second interesting source of optimism is the continued recovery in the U.S. energy industry. With a combination of higher prices and new technology, U.S. energy production is now moving up again instead of down and is likely to do so over the next 8-10 years. I spent some time in Texas this week and was surprised to hear of all the optimism--tempered only a little by many reports of shortages of petroleum engineers (or any engineers for that matter). Even laborers and truck drivers are in short supply as the oil patch begins to advertise for new workers in places as far away as Detroit. Furthermore, the Texans acknowledged that something special is happening in North Dakota, of all places, as they continue to ramp up their energy industry and experience their own economic boomlet.
There were even furtive whispers on my return airplane that, just maybe, North Dakota production could one day rival Prudhoe Bay at its peak (even today, North Dakota is already outproducing a rapidly depleting Prudhoe Bay). All of this could potentially mean more jobs, a move toward more energy independence, and meaningful improvement in the U.S. trade deficit (petroleum represents more than half of our trade deficit). I think the market has yet to grasp the full consequences.
Retail and Food Service Sales Grow a Healthy 0.5% in October Retail and food service sales for October grew 0.5% compared to consensus estimates of a meager 0.2%, led by strong electronic sales (my suspicion is the new iPhone provided a pretty fair boost in October). The strong October number came despite the fact that consumer prices declined over the same period. Growth was slower than the 1.1% level of September, but that month saw higher inflation and got a huge boost from auto sales.
Like the employment data, I prefer to look at these numbers on a year-over-year basis to strip out the effects of changing seasonal patterns. Also I like to use a three-month average to negate the effects of shifting holidays, weather, and anomalies like the iPhone. I like to analyze big-ticket auto sales separately, and I like to exclude gas station sales because of the extreme price volatility. On this basis, the consumer has been a steady-Eddie performer in 2011, at least at the mall.
Looking at just the monthly data (where the average growth was 0.5%), electronics stood out, growing at 3.5%. Nonstore retailers (like Amazon displayPTip('AMZN', 'AMZN','YTD', '', '', '', '', '', '','msg','P');), building materials, groceries, and sporting goods and hobbies all grew in excess of 1%. On the negative side, furniture, apparel, and department stores all declined on a month-to-month basis. On a year-over-year basis, the categories were very tightly clustered between 6% and 8%. Gasoline stations were the only real outlier on the upside, up 18%, but that is because of price increases and not volume. Bringing up the rear were furniture (poor housing market), electronics (always faces a huge 10%-20% headwind due to falling prices each and every year), and department stores (pricing and shift to nonstore retailers), which all showed lower-than-average growth rates (though none were negative on a year-over-year basis).
All in all I was pleased with the report. It continues to show that, while consumers are finicky and price sensitive, they continue to shop at a consistent rate. More up-to-date weekly data from the International Council of Shopping Centers indicates that November is off to a decent start, too. Year-over-year sales are stuck in the same slow but steady pace for almost the entire year. The weekly report did note that promotions and an earlier start to the holiday shopping season were at least partially responsible for the weekly improvement.
Return to DiscussNext21PrevBe Seen. Be Heard. Become a Morningstar Contributor.Reach a readership of advisors, professionals, and active investors. Submit your commentaries for publication on Morningstar.com.
Securities mentioned in this article Ticker Price($) Change(%) Morningstar Rating Morningstar Analyst Report With Morningstar Analyst reports you can get our expert Buy/Sell opinions on over 3,900 Stock and Funds Robert Johnson, CFA does not own shares in any of the securities mentioned above. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies. Video Reports Dare We Say the Data Looked... More Videos... Most Popular Related News Also in Investing Specialists A Closer Look at Berkshire Hathaway's Most Recent PurchasesThe Error-Proof Portfolio: Six Questions to Ask When Your Manager LeavesHow Are You Setting Your Bond Sector Weightings? Sponsored Links Buy a Link Now Sponsor Center Please Wait... ECONOMY USA_AMZN,USA_BA E0_USA_AMZN E0_USA_BA &primaryKeyword=ECONOMY 2 {CommentWebService} .bloomreach-wrap a { color: #000000; text-decoration: none; } .bloomreach-wrap a:hover{ text-decoration: underline; } .bloomreach-wrap { text-align:left; padding-left:5px; margin:15px 0px 0px 4px; padding-top:15px; width: 370px; } .br-related-heading, .br-related-query, .br-found-heading, .br-sf-widget { border-bottom: 1px solid #CCCCCC; font-size: 11px; line-height: 15px; padding: 5px 0 5px; } .br-related-heading, .br-found-heading { border-top: 2px solid #999999; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 0 7px; color:#333333; } .br-found-heading { margin-top:30px; } .br-sf-widget-merchant-desc { color: #999999; padding-top:6px; } var br_related_rid = "R412d5e3m87w299xc3a9o-uf,r0,m0"; $(".br-sf-widget-merchant-qv").remove(); $(".br-sf-widget-merchant-img").remove(); $(".br-sf-widget").next("div[id^='br']").remove(); if($(".bloomreach-wrap #BloomreachWidgetProxy").length>0){ $(".bloomreach-wrap #BloomreachWidgetProxy").css("display","block"); } else{ if($("#BloomreachWidget").length>0){ document.getElementById("BloomreachWidget").innerHTML=$("#BloomreachWidgetProxy").html(); $("#BloomreachWidgetProxy").remove(); } } .br-related-heading, .br-found-heading { border-top: 3px solid #666666; font-weight: bold; font-size:10px; padding: 2px 0 7px; color:#000000; } OAS_AD('Bottom'); Content Partners Site Directory Site Map Our Products Corrections Help Advertising Opportunities Licensing Opportunities Glossary RSS Mobile Portfolio Affiliate Careers Company News International Sites: Australia Canada China France Germany Hong Kong Italy The Netherlands Norway Spain U.K. Switzerland Independent. Insightful. Trusted. Morningstar provides stock market analysis; equity, mutual fund, and ETF research, ratings, and picks; portfolio tools; and option, hedge fund, IRA, 401k, and 529 plan research. Our reliable data and analysis can help both experienced enthusiasts and newcomers. © Copyright 2011 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Please read our Terms of Useand Privacy Policy.Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Morningstar Index (Market Barometer) quotes are real-time. var HeaderBox = initBoxQuote("AutoCompleteBox","AutoCompleteDropDown"); HeaderBox.IdleDisplayMsg = ""; HeaderBox.LocalRegion="USA"; HeaderBox.SetPreference('USA','EN',32); var FooterBox = initBoxQuote("AutoCompleteBoxFooter","AutoCompleteDropDownFooter"); FooterBox.IdleDisplayMsg = ""; FooterBox.LocalRegion="USA"; FooterBox.SetPreference('USA','EN',32); //clears all content/image boxes-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- var imageIDs=new Array('siteDirectoryContent', 'siteMapContent', 'productsContent'); //content boxes .mi_row3{display: none} var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'UA-16669347-1']); _gaq.push(['_setDomainName', '.morningstar.com']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); var Name = $('meta[name=DC.Creator]').attr("content").split(','); var Title = $('meta[name=DC.Title]').attr("content"); var URL = window.location.href; var Author = Name[1] + " " + Name[0]; var PubDate = $('meta[name=DC.Date]').attr("content"); _gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'Article Title From Morningstar', Title, URL]); _gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'Author Name From Morningstar', Author, URL]); _gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'Article URL From Morningstar', URL, Title + "(by " + Author + " on " + PubDate + ")"]); _gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'Publish Date From Morningstar', PubDate, URL]); _gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'Article Title', Title, URL]); _gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'Author Name', Author, URL]); _gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'Article URL', URL, Title + "(by " + Author + " on " + PubDate + ")"]); _gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'Publish Date', PubDate, URL]);Eric Landry, the director of our industrial team, provides his summary of this month's IP report below:
Housing, a Little Light at the End of the Tunnel Builder sentiment earlier in the week, housing starts, and most importantly permits all pointed to a mildly stronger housing market. While the numbers weren't that much of an improvement, I think they might represent a key inflection point. After a relatively strong September, the herd of economists and I assumed that the housing data would collapse again in October. Instead, much of the housing-related data shot up again and most other categories were basically flat, not down. Eric Landry analyzed this week's housing data as follows:
NAHB/Wells Fargo Homebuilder Confidence Index suggests there's a tiny whiff of optimism infiltrating the new-home market. The monthly reading of the mood of the nation's builders increased to 20 in November from a revised 17 in October. While still considerably below the important 50 level that separates growth from contraction, November's increase is significant. It marks the highest level the diffusion index has attained since the tax-credit-enhanced days of May 2010, when it momentarily reached 22. Aside from that one-time burst, the confidence index hasn't been this high since all the way back in April 2008. The index tends to track decently with single-family starts with a bit of a lead, so any movement upward may be a good sign for future activity. And though it's a long way from signaling a genuinely healthy market, November's increase is a good start.
October home starts show little sequential movement, but permits tick up on the heels of continued multifamily strength. Total housing starts, at 628,000 SAAR, were roughly equal to September's revised rate, with single-family increasing 4% to a 430,000 SAAR but the volatile 5-plus unit category declining 13% to 183,000 SAAR. The north region was up 17% sequentially, while the west region was down a similar percentage. Single-family activity continues to limp along the bottom in a tight range between 400,000 and 550,000 SAAR for the past three-plus years. October permits told a slightly more positive story than actual starts, however, with total permissions increasing 11% sequentially to 653,000 SAAR. This was the most seasonally adjusted permits issued since the tax-credit-fueled March 2010 performance. Single-family permits were up 5% sequentially and 5-plus units were up a strong 30% from September, reflecting continued strong but volatile activity in multifamily construction. Like with overall starts, permits are showing little direct evidence they're ready to break out of the more than three year long channel they're currently mired in, with activity constrained to a range of between 500,000 and 700,000 total permits for the past several years. However, with builder confidence ticking up ever so slightly, the seeds of recovery may be starting to germinate.
Second GDP Estimate Harder to Estimate than the First Last month we got the first of three estimates of third-quarter GDP growth. Next week we will see the second estimate, and the final estimate will arrive in late December.
The original estimate showed GDP growth of 2.5%, and the consensus is that the second, more accurate reading will show modestly slower growth of 2.3%. However, because several components of GDP were estimates the first time around, many of which proved to be wide of the mark, a new estimate of anywhere between 2% and 3% would not surprise me. The balance of trade data used to calculate exports and imports proved to be particularly off--the government didn't even get the direction of the change right for September. It turns out that higher exports and lower imports could provide a relatively large boost to GDP. Wholesale and retail inventories also showed an unusually large discrepancy between the original estimates to compile GDP and the final report we saw this week. The magnitude here was larger than the balance of trade deficit estimation and unfortunately in the opposite direction. However, because there is an interaction between sales, prices, and inventories that only government statisticians can see, the range of possibilities for the second GDP estimate remains unusually wide.
In my opinion, the potential reduction in the GDP estimate--even if GDP turns out to be lower than consensus--is not a big deal. That is because the bulk of the reduction comes from inventories that are being kept at unusually low levels and will probably have to be restocked in the fourth quarter. Even before the upcoming adjustment, inventories took over 1% off of GDP and now that number is likely to be closer to 2%. An inventory adjustment this large so early in a recovery is unusual and reflects the conservative outlook of businesses. Based on recent sales data, that outlook may prove to be too conservative.
Personal Income and Spending Data Due I don't have any particular beefs with the consensus forecast that personal income will be up 0.2% and spending up 0.3%. They could both prove to a little light based on the retail sales data this week and the employment report of several weeks ago, though not enough to argue about. More importantly, sharp revisions to the employment reports for both August and September are likely to result in at least a partial revision of the negative income number the government previously reported. This would help explain how retail sales could be so strong in the face of some pretty negative income figures.
Expectations for Existing Home Sales Seem Conservative Given that last month's existing home sales number was low, and this week's other housing metrics looked a little better, I'm surprised that the consensus is calling for a decline in existing home sales to 4.8 million from 4.9 million. I think there is a real possibility that existing home sales could be flat or up a touch from September's lackluster performance.
The consensus seems to finally have come to the conclusion that the U.S. economy will not double dip. But nobody--including me--is willing to go out on a limb to project a very robust 2012. High debt, a poor housing market, lack of consumer confidence, high unemployment--we have all heard about the stumbling blocks. But is there anything at all that could surprise dour economists on the upside?
Certainly this week's housing data seem to suggest that there might be some stirrings of life in a market that has been flat on its back. Homebuilder sentiment, housing starts, and more forward-looking housing permits all had a very nice October. This would be the second month in a row that trends here have looked better. It wouldn't take a lot more to make housing a net add to GDP instead of a detractor as it's been for most of the recovery.
The second interesting source of optimism is the continued recovery in the U.S. energy industry. With a combination of higher prices and new technology, U.S. energy production is now moving up again instead of down and is likely to do so over the next 8-10 years. I spent some time in Texas this week and was surprised to hear of all the optimism--tempered only a little by many reports of shortages of petroleum engineers (or any engineers for that matter). Even laborers and truck drivers are in short supply as the oil patch begins to advertise for new workers in places as far away as Detroit. Furthermore, the Texans acknowledged that something special is happening in North Dakota, of all places, as they continue to ramp up their energy industry and experience their own economic boomlet.
There were even furtive whispers on my return airplane that, just maybe, North Dakota production could one day rival Prudhoe Bay at its peak (even today, North Dakota is already outproducing a rapidly depleting Prudhoe Bay). All of this could potentially mean more jobs, a move toward more energy independence, and meaningful improvement in the U.S. trade deficit (petroleum represents more than half of our trade deficit). I think the market has yet to grasp the full consequences.
Retail and Food Service Sales Grow a Healthy 0.5% in October Retail and food service sales for October grew 0.5% compared to consensus estimates of a meager 0.2%, led by strong electronic sales (my suspicion is the new iPhone provided a pretty fair boost in October). The strong October number came despite the fact that consumer prices declined over the same period. Growth was slower than the 1.1% level of September, but that month saw higher inflation and got a huge boost from auto sales.
Like the employment data, I prefer to look at these numbers on a year-over-year basis to strip out the effects of changing seasonal patterns. Also I like to use a three-month average to negate the effects of shifting holidays, weather, and anomalies like the iPhone. I like to analyze big-ticket auto sales separately, and I like to exclude gas station sales because of the extreme price volatility. On this basis, the consumer has been a steady-Eddie performer in 2011, at least at the mall.
Looking at just the monthly data (where the average growth was 0.5%), electronics stood out, growing at 3.5%. Nonstore retailers (like Amazon ), building materials, groceries, and sporting goods and hobbies all grew in excess of 1%. On the negative side, furniture, apparel, and department stores all declined on a month-to-month basis. On a year-over-year basis, the categories were very tightly clustered between 6% and 8%. Gasoline stations were the only real outlier on the upside, up 18%, but that is because of price increases and not volume. Bringing up the rear were furniture (poor housing market), electronics (always faces a huge 10%-20% headwind due to falling prices each and every year), and department stores (pricing and shift to nonstore retailers), which all showed lower-than-average growth rates (though none were negative on a year-over-year basis).
All in all I was pleased with the report. It continues to show that, while consumers are finicky and price sensitive, they continue to shop at a consistent rate. More up-to-date weekly data from the International Council of Shopping Centers indicates that November is off to a decent start, too. Year-over-year sales are stuck in the same slow but steady pace for almost the entire year. The weekly report did note that promotions and an earlier start to the holiday shopping season were at least partially responsible for the weekly improvement.
Return to DiscussNext21PrevBe Seen. Be Heard. Become a Morningstar Contributor.Reach a readership of advisors, professionals, and active investors. Submit your commentaries for publication on Morningstar.com.
Securities mentioned in this article Ticker Price($) Change(%) Morningstar Rating Morningstar Analyst Report With Morningstar Analyst reports you can get our expert Buy/Sell opinions on over 3,900 Stock and Funds Robert Johnson, CFA does not own shares in any of the securities mentioned above. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies. Video Reports Dare We Say the Data Looked... More Videos... Most Popular Related News Also in Investing Specialists A Closer Look at Berkshire Hathaway's Most Recent PurchasesThe Error-Proof Portfolio: Six Questions to Ask When Your Manager LeavesHow Are You Setting Your Bond Sector Weightings? Sponsored Links Buy a Link Now Sponsor Center Please Wait... ECONOMY USA_AMZN,USA_BA E0_USA_AMZN E0_USA_BA &primaryKeyword=ECONOMY 2 {CommentWebService} .bloomreach-wrap a { color: #000000; text-decoration: none; } .bloomreach-wrap a:hover{ text-decoration: underline; } .bloomreach-wrap { text-align:left; padding-left:5px; margin:15px 0px 0px 4px; padding-top:15px; width: 370px; } .br-related-heading, .br-related-query, .br-found-heading, .br-sf-widget { border-bottom: 1px solid #CCCCCC; font-size: 11px; line-height: 15px; padding: 5px 0 5px; } .br-related-heading, .br-found-heading { border-top: 2px solid #999999; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 0 7px; color:#333333; } .br-found-heading { margin-top:30px; } .br-sf-widget-merchant-desc { color: #999999; padding-top:6px; } var br_related_rid = "R412d5e3m87w299xc3a9o-uf,r0,m0"; $(".br-sf-widget-merchant-qv").remove(); $(".br-sf-widget-merchant-img").remove(); $(".br-sf-widget").next("div[id^='br']").remove(); if($(".bloomreach-wrap #BloomreachWidgetProxy").length>0){ $(".bloomreach-wrap #BloomreachWidgetProxy").css("display","block"); } else{ if($("#BloomreachWidget").length>0){ document.getElementById("BloomreachWidget").innerHTML=$("#BloomreachWidgetProxy").html(); $("#BloomreachWidgetProxy").remove(); } } .br-related-heading, .br-found-heading { border-top: 3px solid #666666; font-weight: bold; font-size:10px; padding: 2px 0 7px; color:#000000; } OAS_AD('Bottom'); Content Partners Site Directory Site Map Our Products Corrections Help Advertising Opportunities Licensing Opportunities Glossary RSS Mobile Portfolio Affiliate Careers Company News International Sites: Australia Canada China France Germany Hong Kong Italy The Netherlands Norway Spain U.K. Switzerland Independent. Insightful. Trusted. Morningstar provides stock market analysis; equity, mutual fund, and ETF research, ratings, and picks; portfolio tools; and option, hedge fund, IRA, 401k, and 529 plan research. Our reliable data and analysis can help both experienced enthusiasts and newcomers. © Copyright 2011 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Please read our Terms of Useand Privacy Policy.Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Morningstar Index (Market Barometer) quotes are real-time. var HeaderBox = initBoxQuote("AutoCompleteBox","AutoCompleteDropDown"); HeaderBox.IdleDisplayMsg = ""; HeaderBox.LocalRegion="USA"; HeaderBox.SetPreference('USA','EN',32); var FooterBox = initBoxQuote("AutoCompleteBoxFooter","AutoCompleteDropDownFooter"); FooterBox.IdleDisplayMsg = ""; FooterBox.LocalRegion="USA"; FooterBox.SetPreference('USA','EN',32); //clears all content/image boxes-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- var imageIDs=new Array('siteDirectoryContent', 'siteMapContent', 'productsContent'); //content boxes .mi_row3{display: none} var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'UA-16669347-1']); _gaq.push(['_setDomainName', '.morningstar.com']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); var Name = $('meta[name=DC.Creator]').attr("content").split(','); var Title = $('meta[name=DC.Title]').attr("content"); var URL = window.location.href; var Author = Name[1] + " " + Name[0]; var PubDate = $('meta[name=DC.Date]').attr("content"); _gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'Article Title From Morningstar', Title, URL]); _gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'Author Name From Morningstar', Author, URL]); _gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'Article URL From Morningstar', URL, Title + "(by " + Author + " on " + PubDate + ")"]); _gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'Publish Date From Morningstar', PubDate, URL]); _gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'Article Title', Title, URL]); _gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'Author Name', Author, URL]); _gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'Article URL', URL, Title + "(by " + Author + " on " + PubDate + ")"]); _gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'Publish Date', PubDate, URL]);All in all I was pleased with the report. It continues to show that, while consumers are finicky and price sensitive, they continue to shop at a consistent rate. More up-to-date weekly data from the International Council of Shopping Centers indicates that November is off to a decent start, too. Year-over-year sales are stuck in the same slow but steady pace for almost the entire year. The weekly report did note that promotions and an earlier start to the holiday shopping season were at least partially responsible for the weekly improvement.
Be Seen. Be Heard. Become a Morningstar Contributor.Reach a readership of advisors, professionals, and active investors. Submit your commentaries for publication on Morningstar.com.
Read Full Article »