This commentary originally appeared on Real Money Pro on Dec. 13 at 8:22 a.m. EST.
I continue to believe that the current market volatility and lack of economic predictability, principally owing to the European debt crisis, have likely created a relatively attractive entry point for intermediate-term investors. The good news is that renters and others lacking conviction have reduced their commitments to stocks, as the sentiment of the most dominant investor classes (retail and institutional, pension plans and hedge funds) has soured. And with that souring sentiment, their commitment to stocks has been reduced. It is good news that we have recently seen the reappearance of a growing list of market Cassandras, who see the sky falling and an imminent global meltdown of monumental proportions. (Remember perma-bulls and perma-bears are attention-getters, not money-makers.) It is good news that the same Wall Street strategists who expected 1500-plus in the S&P 500 in their annual predictions one year ago are now reserved and cautious in their views. And it is also good news that the U.S. is three years ahead of Europe in addressing our debt problems, that the health of U.S. corporations' balance sheets and income statements has been all but ignored by investors and that we have a functioning central bank and ample resources. As I discussed yesterday, the world's economies are imperfect, as structural headwinds are governors to growth, and a relatively weak trajectory of growth is exposed to all sorts of exogenous shocks. Arguably, the stock market has been discounted in reasonable valuations and little, if any, expectation of more positive news. With stocks trading at only 12.5x projected 2012 S&P profits and a 2.05% yield on our 10-year U.S note, this compares favorably to a 50-year average of over 15x during a time in which the yield on the 10-year U.S. note approached 6.70%. With investors either materially in cash or heavily skewed toward low-yielding fixed income, any market recovery could feed on itself in an environment where individuals are uninvolved and hedge funds have multiyear low (i.e., bear-market low) net long exposure and run the risk of being caught offside. Low expectations and an underinvested investment community are all conditions that have historically formed the foundation for a better market setting, as bull markets typically emerge out of periods of bad news (and bear markets typically emerge out of periods of good news). Add Comment Tweet 1 2 Last » Next › adsonar_placementId=1341527;adsonar_pid=879768;adsonar_ps=-1;adsonar_zw=600;adsonar_zh=280;adsonar_jv='ads.adsonar.com'; try { function DM_onSegsAvailable(segs, cust_id) { for (var i=0;i //* Global Functions *// function metadataRegisterNS(ns){ var nsParts = ns.split("."); var root = window; for(var i=0; i Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ 10-Year Note 11,954.94 1,225.73 2,579.27 19.62 Oil * 109.53 DOWN 66.45 DOWN 10.74 DOWN 32.99 DOWN 0.47 10 Yr 1.96% SPDR Gold 158.45 -0.55% -0.87% -1.26% -2.34% Data delayed 20 minutes Top Stories and Tools var randnum = Math.floor(Math.random() * 100) if (randnum < 50) { document.write("10 Things Still Made in America"); document.write("Dividend Calendar: Find Ex-Dividend Dates"); document.write("Goldman Sachs' 9 Best Stocks for 2012"); document.write("Merrill Lynch's 10 Favorite Stocks for 2012"); document.write("Today's Top-Rated Stocks (by Industry)"); document.write("FREE NEWSLETTER: Dividend & Income Investor"); } else { document.write("10 2011 Cars You Should Buy Now"); document.write("17 Products That Were Invented by Accident"); document.write("9 Completely Worthless Collectibles"); document.write("2011 Bank Ratings and Safety Screener"); document.write("10 Hottest Holiday Gadgets of 2011"); document.write("10 Best Dow Dividend Stocks for 2012"); } Twitter Facebook RSS Mobile App TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.sz = "336x280,336x850,300x250,468x648"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.resetTargets(); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.calltype = "adj"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.additionalTargeting = ";;storytype=premiumpreview;kval=premiumpreview;;storytype=premiumpreview;kval=premiumpreview"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.writeTag(); adsonar_placementId=1341369;adsonar_pid=879768;adsonar_ps=-1;adsonar_zw=320;adsonar_zh=280;adsonar_jv='ads.adsonar.com'; Brokerage Partners Free Newsletters from TheStreetAfter the Bell
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