12/15/2011 9:10 PM ET
Amid high gas prices and all the calls for more drilling, you may be surprised to learn that the United States is now a net exporter of oil. Here's why -- and how investors can play this remarkable shift.
The United States has become a net exporter of oil.
Pick yourself up off the floor. It's true -- at least by one definition of "oil." And the change to shipping oil overseas will have major effects on U.S. economic growth and on what you should hold in your portfolio.
Let's start by nailing down exactly what I mean by oil.
The U.S. is not about to become a net exporter of crude.
In September, the United States exported 35,000 barrels a day of unrefined crude oil. That same month, the U.S. imported 9 million barrels of crude oil a day. If you look just at crude, the U.S. is the same huge importer of oil it has been for as long as most of us can remember.
Jim Jubak
But if you look at the figures for refined petroleum products, the picture is shockingly different. In September, the United States exported 3.2 million barrels of refined petroleum products a day and imported just 2.2 million barrels a day. That's a surplus of exports over imports of roughly a million barrels a day. For the first nine months of 2011, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, the U.S. exported 752 million barrels of refined petroleum products: gasoline, jet fuel, kerosene and such chemical-industry feed stocks as ethylene, butane and propylene.
The swing in less than a decade is immense. For 2005, for example, the U.S. imported 900 million more barrels of refined petroleum products than it exported.
This huge shift doesn't have just one cause.
/*
Booming oil fields, slow economyPart of it is due to the oil boom in the United States as a result of new technologies. Petroleum production from oil shale has turned North Dakota into a major domestic oil producer, with production rising to 424,000 barrels a day in July 2011 from 98,000 barrels a day in 2005. (See "Unemployed? Head for North Dakota" for more.)
Oil from oil shale has also reversed what looked like the inevitable production declines for older fields in states such as Texas. Oil production there had tumbled from 2.6 million barrels a day in 1980 to 1.9 million in 1989 and down to 1.087 million in 2008. But instead of continuing its march toward zero, production in Texas edged back up in 2009 to 1.106 million barrels a day and to 1.169 million in 2010. That reversal has given U.S. refineries a lot more domestic crude to work with.
The shift is also partly a result of the very slow economic recovery in the United States. U.S. gasoline consumption topped out in 2007. In August 2011, a peak driving month, U.S. consumers used almost 8% less gas than they had four years earlier. In contrast, gasoline consumption continues to climb in faster-growing emerging economies. Gasoline consumption in India, for example, was 5.4% higher in October 2011 than in October 2010.
The U.S. export swing is also the result of a shortage of refinery capacity in some parts of the world and for some kinds of products. For example, while Mexico, one of the world's big oil producers, doesn't import any crude from the United States, it does import a growing volume of refined petroleum products. Mexican imports of gasoline climbed by almost 70% from 2005 to 2010. Brazil, which imports neither crude oil nor any gasoline from the United States, has still seen imports of refined petroleum products from the United States grow by 220% from 2005 to 2010. The biggest jump there has been in distillate fuel oil.
How oil is extracted from shale
And, finally, part of it is geography. The economies of Latin America are seeing some of the fastest rates of growth in consumption of petroleum products -- and the U.S. Gulf Coast refineries are perfectly placed to export to those countries. In addition to Mexico and Brazil, Argentina and Peru have recently become net importers of petroleum products from the United States.
What the oil shift meansI can see two big effects from this shift to the U.S. being an exporter of refined oil products.
First, it dampens, to some degree, the impact of higher oil prices on the U.S. economy. There's no evidence to suggest that U.S. consumers have gotten any benefit from the United States becoming an exporter of refined oil products. Gasoline prices, as far as anyone can tell, haven't fallen as a result, for example. Higher oil prices are still likely to take money out of consumers' wallets that could have been spent on things other than gasoline.
Stocks mentioned in this article: HollyFrontier (HFC, news), Valero (VLO, news), Marathon Petroleum (MPC, news) and Jubak Global Equity Fund (JUBAX).
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Why not, the politicians aren't doing anything to help the little guy anyways -we don't have huge campaign donations, so they don't work for us. 3 0ReportSpamsteveG195634 minutes agowe have quietly done some great advancements in cars, engines, etc. efficiency in general. does anyone remember the guttless wonders of the late 70's, early 80's? 4 cylinder cars that could get out of their own way? now little civics move along pretty well.
people can make their own choices. stupidity comes when the USA government "allows" cars like Hummers on the road. there should be a bottom end allowed on the market. and the hummer doesn't pass the test for being allowed on th eroad.
they are little different from the oil burning smoke junkers the AQMD got off the road. excessive air polution isn't allowed on the road so why should excessive gas consumption cars stay on the road?
Our country was built on oil! Nothing even comes close to it in versatility, functionality, ease of extraction, transportability and the amount of energy that can be derived from it. I don't think the average person realizes how much energy is contained in oil. It's very remarkable. The point I'm making is that it will be very very hard to replace it with something else. And this one issue (figuring out how to replace oil in our society) will either destroy our civilization or propel it into the next century. And I'm not exaggerating by any means! 3 1ReportSpamMi Ca (shredder46) 44 minutes agoOur country was built on oil! Nothing even comes close to it in versatility, functionality, ease of extraction, transportability and the amount of energy that can be derived from it. I don't think the average person realizes how much energy is contained in oil. It's very remarkable. The point I'm making is that it will be very very hard to replace it with something else. And this one issue (figuring out how to replace oil in our society) will either destroy our civilization or propel it into the next century. And I'm not exaggerating by any means! 8 0ReportSpamTexas Rancher 5552 minutes agoknowing our government .. we charge less for what we export compared to what we pay for what we import .... 9 0ReportSpamFRED52359 minutes agoexport then import & charge a higher rate ,remember when they built the Alaska pipeline at that time that was suppose to end all are worries about gas it is all BS ,THE GREAT DEPRESSION continues ,if you export you can then import the same oil for more money ,& charge a hgher rate 8 0ReportSpamlawrence grossman1 hour agoI drive a Lincoln Town Car just because I can. I am used to long drives and it is great for that. My wife drives a Kia Optima and that is the car we use the most. I will not give up the Lincoln for one reason, I have a Grand-Son with three children and I feel safer driving the three children in my car. Stop worrying about the future, The Milky Way and The andromeda Galaxy are going to collide in about 4 billion tears any way. 9 5ReportSpamsubnormal883 hours agoOk,I have read some of the blogs about this. We are raising the fuel economy standard on all cars and trucks. You have to ask yourself how much you are willing to pay for these improvements. I have always chosen to have one car that gets above average fuel economy in my house hold. I read about cars, one of my hobbies. We as a population have to stop blaming everyone else for the choices that we have made. Back in the late 80's I had a Tempo that I averaged almost 30 miles to the gallon one. We have decided that we want a v6 instead of a 4, we have decided that we want a v8 instead of a v6. The other thing that we have to look at is how much all of the safety equipment has added to the weight of the cars. On average it is 150 to 200 pounds every 2-3 years. The European cars that have been mentioned are diesel powered and probably have manual transmissions. Neither has ever sold well in the united states. Are use of vehicles is also totally different than in Europe. Due to our demand car companies have been focused on safety and performance. Now we are starting to see that we can have safety, performance and good gas mileage as well. Think about this also, when is the last time that you had to change your spark plugs? The car i have right now has 113,000 miles on it. Still original brakes, original spark plugs, no repairs other than normal maintenance. There are is going to be a lot of new cars coming out over the next 2-3 years that will be getting as good if not better mileage than the hybrids we have now.Sub l po 5 4ReportSpamskynest3 hours agoI want to say something about hydrogen. It costs more to separate hydrogen from water than you get from burning it. So water is out. So where to get it? Hydrocarbons. Well now you have to separate it from the carbon and I think you are in the same boat as with water. You end up refining a fuel into a specialty fuel that ends up costing you more than the original product. So you will still need those nasty refineries, carbon sequestration, and special handling because hydrogen is very, very volatile. Unfortunately, that is why we have no hydrogen powered cars at the dealership. Natural gas would be so much better like Mr. T. Boone Pickens has proposed. But nobody seems to be listening. 11 6ReportSpamSomeone (tiredofwallst) 3 hours ago
It's the final stages of the death of our country. We have become a net exporter of most of our commodities, commodities we should be keeping for ourselves as a surplus which would also keep prices down more. Instead they export the surplus and we still pay more. Welcome ladies and gentlemen to the USA game show "You..... can't....... win".
We are already in a war with China, a financial war which we are losing one corporate acquisition, one closing manufacturing plant, and one more homeless or jobless american at a time. The fact that our gov't takes no action to protect our jobs with import tariff's against these countries with whom we have such a deficit with, tells me that gov't is just puppets for the mega-corps gutting this country. They don't care as long as they make their cut.
32 8ReportSpamskynest3 hours agoDrill for oil, gas and every once of energy we can get our hands on. Energy is what powers everything including the economy and better standard of living. This is the hydrocarbon age. No amount of hoping (funding) will change that fact. They are the cheapest form of energy bar none for probably the end of this century. I love alternate forms of energy, but I content myself to leaving those forms in my science fiction (science future) areas of interest. Wind and solar are not going to cut it. Do some serious research and you will see. That doesn't mean that we should not study and try alternate forms. It just means that if you spend more for the energy you receive, then you are a spendthrift. It is a waste of resources. Which brings me to nuclear. If we had not stopped building those plants, we would not have an energy problem today. We would not be funding the terrorists that hate our country. And we would not be polluting our environment because nuclear has no emissions. France worked out the nuclear waste problem decades ago. Learn what they have done. It is flawless. 20 6ReportSpambrutis bear3 hours agoHydrogen Solar Home. Check it out on YOUTUBE really cool what this guy has done to his house. 5 2ReportSpambrutis bear3 hours agoFarms create tons of Methane emmissions per day! So why let it go to waste use it! Create Jobs and National security! 6 11ReportSpambrutis bear3 hours agoThe only way for National Security is to invest in alternative energies. That way no speculators can stop the sunshine or the wind nor cows pooping! No more giving our money to dictators and oppressive governments! Keep our money in our communities with alternative energy! 7 18ReportSpambrutis bear3 hours ago DRILL BABY DRILL will lead us to a path of WAR with CHINA over energy needs and resources. To avert War we need to invest in alternative energies and allow American Farmers to become competitive in the energy industry! Anaerobic Biomass digesters create the same material as the Marcellus gas METHANE! 6 24ReportSpamsteveG19563 hours agothe down side is i don't think i ever spent $10k on maintenance of any of my cars during the life of those cars. buy a regular high MPG car in the $20k range and drive normally. however i did buy solar for my home since i live in the sun belt. it just sits there and saves me money every year for it's 30 year life expectancy
for me personaly i would be a buyer of an electric car in the next minut however im disabled and cannot afford 40000 but you who can should be doing so by the 10s of thousands or even the 10s of millions and also buy solar and wind chargers so as not to burden the grid besides once you purchase the chargers you then pay no more for your transportation except maintance 8 3ReportSpamomar3 hours ago
It is true, Jim Jubak, that Latin America has been starved of great oil products like the very basics in plastic food containers as well as saran wrap. Also it is true that this news does nothing for average americans. It does help people willing to move to North Dakota and work in dangerous oil fields.
The way the article headline is written, it is meant to invoke inequity for the poor. If this article was purely for investors, he would not have written it this way. This is an election year coming up and you can be sure that candidates will use this figure for their own gains. This exporting helps no one but the oil companies and the providers.
Read my lips, YOU WILL NEVER SEE CHEAP Gas again.
6 6ReportSpamelectric car fan4 hours agofor me personaly i would be a buyer of an electric car in the next minut however im disabled and cannot afford 40000 but you who can should be doing so by the 10s of thousands or even the 10s of millions and also buy solar and wind chargers so as not to burden the grid besides once you purchase the chargers you then pay no more for your transportation except maintance 2 1ReportSpamLEE MARSHALL (Powell for Prez) 4 hours agoWe have a glut of oil sitting in barges off the coast of Maine, near a terminal in Searsport, waiting to offload. The tanks are full and can't hold anymore, so the barges sit miles offshore and wait for the space in tanks to empty. We have more oil than we can handle, but the price is still sky high and is killing us and our economy. This does not pass the smell test. 31 2ReportSpambrutis bear4 hours ago$70.00 one can build a hydrogen fuel cell for additional octan of up to about 150 octane. Simple easy fix. Putting one in my conversion van now to see for myself. Can increase MPG from 30% to 70% we'll see! 9 1ReportSpamelectric car fan4 hours agojim is just pointing out how you can profit from peoples misery like all oil cos do this is very american to screw the people while you profit its in the dna of wall street 7 3ReportSpam123 Add a commentReportPlease help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. 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