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Matthew Lynn's London Eye Archives | Email alerts
Dec. 29, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EST
By Matthew Lynn
LONDON (MarketWatch) "” Shortly before the 1929 stock-market crash that ushered in a global recession, the American economist Irving Fisher made a rightly celebrated forecast: "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."
That should be enough to warn anyone off making predictions, particularly where finance and business are concerned. Still, since we are stuck in the quiet space between Christmas and New Year's day, here are a few things that might or might not happen in 2012.
Predictions for the euro zone make as much sense as trying to forecast the weather for the summer of 2020. The situation is so volatile, no one really has any idea what is going to happen any more. Here is one thought, however. The simplest way out of this crisis is for the European Central Bank to start printing money, but the main problem is selling that fix to the Germans. When it comes to the crunch, Draghi will step aside, a German will be installed, and the printing presses will be switched on.
As the French will spend most of 2012 telling everyone, the U.K. economy is in as bad a shape as any in the world. Its debts are a towering 450% of GDP, its key industry "” financial services "” is in structural decline, and its main trading partner is heading into a deep recession. But the London Olympics will be a huge success. With a devalued currency, falling wages, and a flexible labor force, the U.K. economy will start reinventing itself "” and the Olympics will be seen as the point where the economy started to recover.
The Russian leader faces what now looks like a tricky campaign for the presidency in March. He'll win, but without a convincing majority. The political leader he most resembles is France's General de Gaulle "” nationalistic, conservative and authoritarian, but with a deep sense of his country's history and place in the world. After de Gaulle suffered a setback in a referendum, he resigned in 1969. Before the end of the year, President Putin will step down on health grounds. Once he's gone, Russia will liberalize "” and investors will move into its cheap stocks.
Barack Obama may or may not be a great president, but with the opposition unable to come up with a convincing alternative, he will cruise to a relatively easy re-election. In a world where the euro zone is imploding, Russia is in turmoil, and the Chinese economy will be looking wobbly, the U.S. will seem to be the only real safe haven. Everyone will want to get that portion of their portfolio that isn't in gold into dollars "” and the currency will embark on a long-term bull run.
This will be a traumatic year for the French. The country will lose its triple-A rating, and sink back into recession. The far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen will be the star of the presidential election. But in the end, the dull-as-watching-paint-dry Francois Hollande will replace the grand-standing Nicolas Sarkozy as president. By the end of the year, the French will have started to accept that they are no longer major players in the world, either on their own, or through the EU.
Which country is the strongest player in the European Union? One with strong growth, healthy public finances, low debt, and a sizable population. That would be Poland. The government deficit was 5.9% of GDP in 2011 and will drop below 2.9% in 2012. Government debt as a percentage of GDP will fall to 52% next year. It is forecast to grow by 2.5% in 2012 even as the euro zone slips into recession. And with 38 million people, this is a major country. As countries such as France lose their triple-A rating, and nations such as Britain drift away from the EU, there will be space for Poland to have an increasingly assertive voice.
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