That very involvement by politicians whose incentives are often antithetical to those of investors makes it particularly difficult to make predictions about markets this year, when U.S. elections bring everything to a halt.
Then there are â??black swanâ? events, like last yearâ??s Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown, which nobody can predict but can affect our portfolios profoundly.
OK, enough excuses. Making predictions is part of my job â?? and honestly itâ??s a lot of fun â?? so here are the trends I think will drive markets most in 2012.
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