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David Weidner's Writing on the Wall Archives | Email alerts
Jan. 10, 2012, 12:01 a.m. EST
By David Weidner, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) "â? They predicted a muni-bond collapse, an "?inflationary nightmare,"? double-digit unemployment, BP PLC at $50 a share and 10-year Treasurys with yields at 4%.
If you followed their advice you probably have a lighter wallet to show for it. If you accepted their view of the world, you might believe in unicorns and leprechauns.
These financial wizards were so wrong, for so long, they deserve to go to the penalty box. And they will. Feel free to ignore their advice in 2012. Don't get fooled again.
Michael Lewis's favorite analyst struck out on her own a few years ago as a solo financial industry analyst. Last year she added muni bonds to her repertoire, a controversial move given her lack of experience. She got attention, though, by predicting a huge municipal default crisis of "50 to 100"? agencies.
The result? About $2 billion out of a $3.7 trillion market, or 0.0005% of the market.
It's time for Whitney to go back to predicting bank failures.
When he isn't shilling for "free credit reports"? that cost money or making a fool of himself defending former IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn because, as Stein put it, economists don't do sexual assault, Stein's record is one of poor prognostication and he has a reputation as a peddler of misinformation.
He argues that unemployed college graduates should do work that illegal immigrants do, even though most college grads have enormous debt.
Oh, he also predicted a massive U.S. economic collapse because the Federal Reserve was "shovelling"? money out the door. He's right on the latter point, he missed it on the first.
We don't take CNBC entertainer Jim Cramer that seriously as a market strategist or stock picker. We are amazed, however, that so many people do. A favorite Cramer pick: he said BP PLC /quotes/zigman/247026/quotes/nls/bp BP -0.02% was a good buy at $50 back in June 2010. The stock fell and fell. It hit $49 in February, but alas, it fell again and never reached that $50 mark again "â? in 19 consecutive months.
Cramer's record includes recommending Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers in 2008. Calling Lenny Dykstra a great stock picker (he's filed for bankruptcy) and buying commodities this year. Boo-yah!
Stovall, the Standard & Poor's equity strategist, is one of the classiest and most interesting guys on Wall Street. But you shouldn't watch him too closely, especially at year end. At the start of 2011, Stovall said the market historically rose 17% in the third year of a presidential term. Sam good naturedly admitted he got that one wrong, but it didn't stop him from predicting a 13% rise for the S&P 500 /quotes/zigman/3870025 SPX +0.23% in 2012.
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David Weidner is the Wall Street columnist for MarketWatch. He formerly covered M&A and financial services at The Daily Deal, American Banker and Dow Jones... Expand
David Weidner is the Wall Street columnist for MarketWatch. He formerly covered M&A and financial services at The Daily Deal, American Banker and Dow Jones. He writes the Writing on the Wall column which appears Tuesday on MarketWatch and Thursdays on WSJ.com. He also is a regular contributor to the News Hub. Collapse
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