China's Big "Dr Dolittle" Economic Problem

1/9/2012 7:45 PM ET

By Jim Jubak

Like the doctor's fictional creature, China is being pulled 2 ways, toward a soft economic landing and something much worse. It's hard to know which way it will go.

Jim Jubak

I'd compare China right now to Dr. Dolittle's pushmi-pullyu -- except that then you might think I believe the battle between the forces pushing that country's economy toward contraction and those pushing it toward expansion is comic.

And there's nothing funny about the perilous balance in China that will determine whether its economy will bottom near an 8% growth rate in the second quarter or shrink much more drastically to a hard landing.

There's nothing -- not the fate of the euro, a possible Greek default or an economic slowdown in the United States -- that has more power to determine the returns investors will see in 2012. I know I've written about this battle recently, in "China's bear threat isn't over." I also gave you my view that by the middle of 2012 we'll see hard evidence of the 8% (or so) soft landing that will lead to a rally in China and other emerging markets (in "The 10 best stocks for 2012").

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But besides the tiny little issue of whether China can actually achieve a soft landing, there's the question of how scary the flight path becomes. The scarier that flight path, the more uncertainty investors will see -- and the bigger the drop that Chinese (and other emerging market) stocks will suffer before any bottom this summer.

The more uncertainty and the bigger the drop, the stronger the argument to move more of your portfolio to the sidelines in the first half of the year.

And I'd have to say right now that although I'm still looking for a bottom in China (and other emerging markets) in mid-2012, the going looks increasingly rough, and the damage that the bear will inflict even worse with every news story from China.

The subway freeze

The war isn't over, and I think ultimately the forces of expansion will pull out the victory, but the news from the front is certainly negative right now.

How negative? Well, let's take a story that Caixin online reported Friday about the collapse of subway construction in China

The story reported that the cities of Chengdu (one of the fastest-growing cities in China), Xian and Shenyang will open a second subway line in 2012. And then stop any further expansion of their systems.

Is there a real estate bubble in China?

The pattern is being repeated throughout China. Shanghai, for example, has indefinitely postponed the scheduled addition of seven trains' worth of rolling stock to expand its subway system.

Zhang Jiangyu, vice director of the transit technology planning office at the National Development and Reform Commission, told Caixin that 70% to 80% of projects are being postponed nationwide.

Part of this is a result of an explicit decision by the government in Beijing to cut spending on rail projects as part of the efforts to slow the economy in order to fight inflation. (The National Development and Reform Commission didn't approve a single subway project in 2011.) This part of the story doesn't worry me too much -- explicit central government decisions to cut spending can be quickly reversed by explicit central government decisions to increase spending.

But actions by the central government explain only part of the collapse in subway spending. Most of it is a systemic effect of the central government's decision to slow the real-estate market and to hold down or reduce real-estate prices. I'd call it an unintended systemic effect, and as such it will be much more difficult to reverse.

And that's what worries me -- and other China investors -- about this piece of news.

More from MoneyShow.com:

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So how long before we found out about the money in the bailouts going overseas?

I guess im not as trusting as you.The american taxpayer bailed the banks out in 08 or they wouldve gone bellyup then.Now its still going on.When your 14,i mean 15 trillion in dept its the same as saying were bankrupt,its such an insane amount of money people cant grasp how much it truly is.Oh yeah they want to raise the dept ceiling anouther 1 trillion or so.

  You all should prepare your selves as best you can.Just imagine a war with Iran and what the results would be.I sure dont expect much from the fools running our country.

    1    1ReportSpamjlum2 hours agoThe real estate bubble happened in the US.  It is happening in China.  So much for learning from mistakes.     0    0ReportSpamStromprophet2 hours agoOf course the chinese government isnt like ours,wich feeds us overly optimistic information.

........

 

No economy in the world is more transparent than the US. There is a wealth of non gov information in addition to gov information.

 

And China is the *worst* in the world. Which is why so many analysts have a tough time gauging the true economic strength of the country.

 

Chinese are king of disinformation and also controlling the flow of information to their people.

    3    0ReportSpamRoon J4 hours ago

Of course the chinese government isnt like ours,wich feeds us overly optimistic information.

I really enjoy the whole blowing off the dept thing.The current administration once in a while says its a bad thing,then says it well make cuts that well start working years from now.Whole river of denial thing.The republican debates have one sane person,Ron Paul who wants to cut bloated unconstitutional agencys and get us out of wars and of course he is the wacky one?

       Both partys for many years just havnt been doing there jobs,we need,hate to say it,change.

As in Ron Paul kinda change and term limits for all the brain dead folks in washington.

    7    1ReportSpamrobby61235 hours ago

there is only one long term conclusion that anyone can draw and that is that interest

rates cannot stay this low forever ...they have to revert to the mean and when they

do those invested in treasuries will get clobbered..but there is one way to play rising

interest rates and that is through an inverse bond mutual fund like RYJUX...eventually

you will have to make big money when interest rates move...and if in fact they

go lower in the short term just buy more and be patient

    1    2ReportSpamDoug  (Out in the cold) 15 hours agoMr. Jubak .. excellent summary of the China economic situation.  China is going to have a little bumpy road moving from an export nation to a domestic consumer, but it is a step in the right direction.  With the United States, China and Japan being the 1 - 2 - 3 economic power houses, it is time to focus away from Europe to keep up with the news.     9    1ReportSpamcacique17 hours ago

They have many great advantages...many new fields to go into, they have space deals going, their military can just grow on so many different fields, they have agricultural land by the hundred-thousand square mile area to work with and improve, all that cyber-spionage to conduct against us, etc.  I think one of their immediate goals in not to leave millions out of the Chinese dream and that is where your discussion may apply, but in general their area of development is gorgeous as they have tons of money to spend into any thing they may choose.  I think the military field would be their pet project as it would be their space program.

They have just no limit.

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But besides the tiny little issue of whether China can actually achieve a soft landing, there's the question of how scary the flight path becomes. The scarier that flight path, the more uncertainty investors will see -- and the bigger the drop that Chinese (and other emerging market) stocks will suffer before any bottom this summer.

The more uncertainty and the bigger the drop, the stronger the argument to move more of your portfolio to the sidelines in the first half of the year.

And I'd have to say right now that although I'm still looking for a bottom in China (and other emerging markets) in mid-2012, the going looks increasingly rough, and the damage that the bear will inflict even worse with every news story from China.

The war isn't over, and I think ultimately the forces of expansion will pull out the victory, but the news from the front is certainly negative right now.

How negative? Well, let's take a story that Caixin online reported Friday about the collapse of subway construction in China

The story reported that the cities of Chengdu (one of the fastest-growing cities in China), Xian and Shenyang will open a second subway line in 2012. And then stop any further expansion of their systems.

Is there a real estate bubble in China?

The pattern is being repeated throughout China. Shanghai, for example, has indefinitely postponed the scheduled addition of seven trains' worth of rolling stock to expand its subway system.

Zhang Jiangyu, vice director of the transit technology planning office at the National Development and Reform Commission, told Caixin that 70% to 80% of projects are being postponed nationwide.

Part of this is a result of an explicit decision by the government in Beijing to cut spending on rail projects as part of the efforts to slow the economy in order to fight inflation. (The National Development and Reform Commission didn't approve a single subway project in 2011.) This part of the story doesn't worry me too much -- explicit central government decisions to cut spending can be quickly reversed by explicit central government decisions to increase spending.

But actions by the central government explain only part of the collapse in subway spending. Most of it is a systemic effect of the central government's decision to slow the real-estate market and to hold down or reduce real-estate prices. I'd call it an unintended systemic effect, and as such it will be much more difficult to reverse.

And that's what worries me -- and other China investors -- about this piece of news.

More from MoneyShow.com:

So how long before we found out about the money in the bailouts going overseas?

I guess im not as trusting as you.The american taxpayer bailed the banks out in 08 or they wouldve gone bellyup then.Now its still going on.When your 14,i mean 15 trillion in dept its the same as saying were bankrupt,its such an insane amount of money people cant grasp how much it truly is.Oh yeah they want to raise the dept ceiling anouther 1 trillion or so.

  You all should prepare your selves as best you can.Just imagine a war with Iran and what the results would be.I sure dont expect much from the fools running our country.

........

 

No economy in the world is more transparent than the US. There is a wealth of non gov information in addition to gov information.

 

And China is the *worst* in the world. Which is why so many analysts have a tough time gauging the true economic strength of the country.

 

Chinese are king of disinformation and also controlling the flow of information to their people.

Of course the chinese government isnt like ours,wich feeds us overly optimistic information.

I really enjoy the whole blowing off the dept thing.The current administration once in a while says its a bad thing,then says it well make cuts that well start working years from now.Whole river of denial thing.The republican debates have one sane person,Ron Paul who wants to cut bloated unconstitutional agencys and get us out of wars and of course he is the wacky one?

       Both partys for many years just havnt been doing there jobs,we need,hate to say it,change.

As in Ron Paul kinda change and term limits for all the brain dead folks in washington.

there is only one long term conclusion that anyone can draw and that is that interest

rates cannot stay this low forever ...they have to revert to the mean and when they

do those invested in treasuries will get clobbered..but there is one way to play rising

interest rates and that is through an inverse bond mutual fund like RYJUX...eventually

you will have to make big money when interest rates move...and if in fact they

go lower in the short term just buy more and be patient

They have many great advantages...many new fields to go into, they have space deals going, their military can just grow on so many different fields, they have agricultural land by the hundred-thousand square mile area to work with and improve, all that cyber-spionage to conduct against us, etc.  I think one of their immediate goals in not to leave millions out of the Chinese dream and that is where your discussion may apply, but in general their area of development is gorgeous as they have tons of money to spend into any thing they may choose.  I think the military field would be their pet project as it would be their space program.

They have just no limit.

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[BRIEFING.COM] Results from an auction of 3-year Notes were just released about 30 minutes ago. The strong auction results, which featured the greatest dolllar demand since May 2010, come shortly after stocks traded down to session lows, helping Treasuries tick higher. ... More

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