1/16/2012 8:07 PM ET
Just when you think Europe has found a way out of its mess, a new twist emerges to derail the repairs. S&P's debt downgrades are the latest example.
Jim Jubak
We've seen this plot before.
Everything seems peaceful after Carrie pulls her house down on herself and her mother, but the film ends with a dream of Carrie's hand reaching out from her grave to grab Sue's ankle.
Kyle Reese and Sarah Connor think they've killed the Terminator, but he emerges, reduced to a metal core, from the exploding gasoline tanker.
In "The Curse of the Euro," Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, proclaims on Jan. 9 that the threat of the euro debt crisis is receding and no longer threatens to sweep the eurozone into chaos -- only to have the crisis rise up from the grave a week later to threaten France, Italy, Spain and, indeed, the entire eurozone.
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Only this time, the reality of the euro crisis has topped the imaginations of Brian De Palma and James Cameron.
In "The Curse of the Euro," it's not a solitary hand emerging from the grave or a single Terminator stalking out of the flames, but instead an escalation of all the dangers that have come before.
On Jan. 13, Standard & Poor's downgraded the credit rating of nine eurozone countries (see my post on the S&P downgrade here). And Greece and its private creditors adjourned their meetings without an agreement that would prevent a Greek default in March. And the European Central Bank warned that the proposed draft of the European fiscal-discipline treaty was dangerously weak. And the European Financial Stability Facility contemplated its own credit downgrade, which would leave it with even less money to rescue Greece, Portugal and Ireland -- let alone Italy, Spain and France.
Wow!! And this story still isn't over.
But I think we can take a stab at writing a final ending.
The many-headed problemOK, here's the story as we left it Jan. 13.
By offering 489 billion euros ($616 billion) in new three-year loans to European banks in December, Draghi, the new kid in town, had restored peace to the eurozone. Or so he announced on Jan. 9. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Spanish bond had fallen to near 5% and on Italian bonds to near 6.5%. Investors had new confidence in the euro and in the sovereign debt of eurozone countries.
Latest news on the euro crisis
That sense of peace lingered through Jan. 13, when it collapsed under assault from multiple directions.
Standard & Poor's downgraded AAA-rated France and Austria to AA+ and put AAA-rated Luxembourg, Finland and the Netherlands on negative credit watch, a warning of an impending downgrade. S&P also issued two-notch downgrades to Italy (now BBB+), Spain (now A) and Portugal (now BB). That pushed Portugal's rating to the junk-bond level, territory already occupied by Greece (now rated C by S&P).
At virtually the same time, Greece and its private creditors adjourned their talks without reaching an agreement on how big a haircut the creditors would accept on the value of their holdings of Greek bonds or what the yield would be on new bonds issued to replace current Greek bonds.
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Too bad stock markets cannot think and read. 0 1ReportSpamAgelesslovermanceoc58 minutes agoYeah i agree that age ant nothing but just a number. ~~~Age'Less'Mingle.CoM~~a nice place for younger women and oldermen, or older women and younger men,to interact with each other,maybe you wanna check it out or tell your friends Piss on the Euro, oil prices are going to bring the U.S. economy to a screeching halt, the coming increases in oil pricing will cause the price of everything people have to buy to escalate at an ever increasing pace, it will be the end of any recovery, only the rich will not be devastated, and apparently in this half **** banana republic we toil in that's just fine. 4 2ReportSpamrisa jr1 hour agoOur president wants to extend the debt on our unpayable credit limit another 1.5 trillion? Am I supposed to really be that concerned about the euro? One of the cable channels ran the price of oil it takes to maintain various oil producing countries debt and that was scary enough. We're broke every where and printing more paper isn't fixing any thing. 4 5ReportSpamjlum2 hours agoI think that I have seen this movie. Zombies overtaking the world. It is only a matter of time before the army of walking dead overwhelm the world. There is a lot of blood and guts. It just does not end well. The good part is that most of these people in power do not have any brains for these Zombies to devourer.
8 1ReportSpamJack Flash 8122 hours agobite me. the euro is going, going...gone
6 1ReportSpamFull Steam Ahead3 hours ago@Robert
While I agree that "Nothing is free" and that long term overspending can lead to catastrophic downfall, your comparison isn't entirely accurate. The level of what's free in the US isn't on the same plane as that of Greece for example. Most government jobs pay less than the same jobs in the private sector and people take the trade off for the benefits (and perhaps for nobler purposes as well). Offering a hand up, say a Pell Grant, to a person trying to climb out poverty is far from a free secondary education as such grants usually cover only a fraction of the fees at university. The receiver has to work his/her butt off in addition.
Any small business owner carries a certain amount of debt. It can be healthy, providing vital cash flow and enabling the business to grow. Taking on debt to invest in education, sound health and modest, basic care for people who are working their way up from birth in poverty or for those who have worked all of their lives (albeit often for low pay) can cost significantly less long term than some of the problems associated with grinding poverty that breeds hopelessness, addictions, and other aberrant behavior.
Does the US need to get a handle on it's spending? You bet.
12 4ReportSpamyun xu3 hours agooh great article ,age ant nothing but just a number. My boyfriend and i both think so..He is almost 11year older than me .i met him via ~~~Age'Less'Mingle.CoM~~a nice place for younger women and oldermen, or older women and younger men,Free medical. Free Education. Lots of high paying public/government jobs. Nice long vacations. Nothing is free my European comrades....and yet much of the trashing of the European financial system is directly related to rampant government spending. You cannot create a sound economic system based on spending beyond your means for 20 years....and we are on the same coto interact with each other,maybe you wanna check it out or tell your friends 3 7ReportSpamAgelesslovermanceoc3 hours agoYeah i agree that age ant nothing but just a number. ~~~Age'Less'Mingle.CoM~~a nice place for younger women and oldermen, or older women and younger men,to interact with each other,maybe you wanna check it out or tell your friends Well why cant they print more euros and pump it to the banks, that way they can reduce the value of the euro and make their economies more competative and at the same time take a hit in living 3 4ReportSpamAgemingle. com3 hours agooh great article ,age ant nothing but just a number. My boyfriend and i both think so.. He is almost 11year older than me .i met him via ~~~Age Mingle.CoM~~ a nice place for younger women and oldermen, or older women and younger men, to interact with each other,maybe you wanna check it out or tell your friends the seriousness of their problems. In time, the Euro-zone will contract. What goes up must come down....what expands must contract. Remember all the talk about the Amerigo??What a laugh....as if we would share a currency with, and open our borders to, Mexico. 1 13ReportSpamRobert (Robert Nelson) 3 hours agoFree medical. Free Education. Lots of high paying public/government jobs. Nice long vacations. Nothing is free my European comrades....and yet much of the trashing of the European financial system is directly related to rampant government spending. You cannot create a sound economic system based on spending beyond your means for 20 years....and we are on the same course. Our government knows best right? What it knows best is how to overspend, borrow wildly and trash our future. And that future is closer than we all think. 30 4ReportSpampinktrek smith4 hours agothe "conservative" nominee will save us! For he is anti abortion and anti gay....... weeeeeeeeee 18 18ReportSpamSomeone (clevus) 5 hours agoPiss on the Euro, oil prices are going to bring the U.S. economy to a screeching halt, the coming increases in oil pricing will cause the price of everything people have to buy to escalate at an ever increasing pace, it will be the end of any recovery, only the rich will not be devastated, and apparently in this half **** banana republic we toil in that's just fine. 32 6ReportSpamOldNMiddleClass6 hours agoAnd the Republicans are STILL saying that Wall St and the financial sector does not need to be regulated? I must wonder who it was that sold all those poisoned derivatives to those European banks and countries? It seems to me that the only way the market is regulating its self is for a few to get very rich while everyone else bites the bullet. We have not seen ONE banker go to jail for the massive financial crisis which struck this nation and of course the European nations in the domino effect. I guess when one steals billions its O.K. but those who steal a few hundred go to jail for life. 52 28ReportSpamTalkTru11 hours agoNot sure why many of you expect or demand quality and substance from a half-baked news organization??? As for Europe, many of it's leaders and citizens are too proud and arrogant to recognize the seriousness of their problems. In time, the Euro-zone will contract. What goes up must come down....what expands must contract. Remember all the talk about the Amerigo??What a laugh....as if we would share a currency with, and open our borders to, Mexico. 49 7ReportSpamSomeone (anilbs) 12 hours ago
Hi,
Well why cant they print more euros and pump it to the banks, that way they can reduce the value of the euro and make their economies more competative and at the same time take a hit in living standards .Nothing is free and pain has to be faced in the short term. Reducing the value of euro will make assets cheaper , attract money from china etc and create more jobs . It might hit the profits of the companies in europe but that is nothing compared to what will happen if this countries default. Inflation and lower standards is the pain for all the past actions of excess.
38 6ReportSpamdenisthemenace13 hours agoSo if you have seen this movie before, why do you keep on bringing it up ????
I am really tired of seeing and hearing the same stories, change your tune .... please
7 20ReportSpam1ofWethepeople14 hours agoIn my opinion the Euro was an attempt to solidify the hold wealth has on Europe. This along with the world economy gives equality to all 1% of the world's population that are super rich. When the Euro became a trial model for the wealthy, if it worked the world's monies could then become conjoined with the dollar and Bingo they own it all. God help us all.
13 24ReportSpamcrabdust14 hours agoEventually most European countries will have to restrict their borders. The socialistic structures were built for a certain amount of population, because Europe is the land of fruit and honey the population is swelling with noncontributing residence and in some countries it is overwhelming the original designs of their budgets and eventually they will have some hard choices to make which will make them unpopular. They will have to adjust social programs and tell some people to go away. The U.S. is going to have to quit buying friendships and restrict its armed forces to a more localized area to keep its own economy from going totally down the tubes. 43 6ReportSpamDoug (Out in the cold) 15 hours agoReturn of Dracula. I guess I had better look at my calendar again, as I thought it was getting closer to Valentines Day than Halloween . 7 12ReportSpamcrabdust15 hours agoAnd just think you can get a free secondary education and free health care in most of Europe along with four weeks of paid vacation every year. Of course blue jeans are eighty to ninety euros and cheap shoes for forty euros. I do not know if you can buy a house or not. If you live in a city and there is a vacant building you can move right in. Looks like someone is going to get a big swirly. 31 7ReportSpam12 Add a commentReportPlease help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. 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Only this time, the reality of the euro crisis has topped the imaginations of Brian De Palma and James Cameron.
In "The Curse of the Euro," it's not a solitary hand emerging from the grave or a single Terminator stalking out of the flames, but instead an escalation of all the dangers that have come before.
On Jan. 13, Standard & Poor's downgraded the credit rating of nine eurozone countries (see my post on the S&P downgrade here). And Greece and its private creditors adjourned their meetings without an agreement that would prevent a Greek default in March. And the European Central Bank warned that the proposed draft of the European fiscal-discipline treaty was dangerously weak. And the European Financial Stability Facility contemplated its own credit downgrade, which would leave it with even less money to rescue Greece, Portugal and Ireland -- let alone Italy, Spain and France.
Wow!! And this story still isn't over.
But I think we can take a stab at writing a final ending.
OK, here's the story as we left it Jan. 13.
By offering 489 billion euros ($616 billion) in new three-year loans to European banks in December, Draghi, the new kid in town, had restored peace to the eurozone. Or so he announced on Jan. 9. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Spanish bond had fallen to near 5% and on Italian bonds to near 6.5%. Investors had new confidence in the euro and in the sovereign debt of eurozone countries.
Latest news on the euro crisis
That sense of peace lingered through Jan. 13, when it collapsed under assault from multiple directions.
Standard & Poor's downgraded AAA-rated France and Austria to AA+ and put AAA-rated Luxembourg, Finland and the Netherlands on negative credit watch, a warning of an impending downgrade. S&P also issued two-notch downgrades to Italy (now BBB+), Spain (now A) and Portugal (now BB). That pushed Portugal's rating to the junk-bond level, territory already occupied by Greece (now rated C by S&P).
At virtually the same time, Greece and its private creditors adjourned their talks without reaching an agreement on how big a haircut the creditors would accept on the value of their holdings of Greek bonds or what the yield would be on new bonds issued to replace current Greek bonds.
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I think that I have seen this movie. Zombies overtaking the world. It is only a matter of time before the army of walking dead overwhelm the world. There is a lot of blood and guts. It just does not end well. The good part is that most of these people in power do not have any brains for these Zombies to devourer.
bite me. the euro is going, going...gone
@Robert
While I agree that "Nothing is free" and that long term overspending can lead to catastrophic downfall, your comparison isn't entirely accurate. The level of what's free in the US isn't on the same plane as that of Greece for example. Most government jobs pay less than the same jobs in the private sector and people take the trade off for the benefits (and perhaps for nobler purposes as well). Offering a hand up, say a Pell Grant, to a person trying to climb out poverty is far from a free secondary education as such grants usually cover only a fraction of the fees at university. The receiver has to work his/her butt off in addition.
Any small business owner carries a certain amount of debt. It can be healthy, providing vital cash flow and enabling the business to grow. Taking on debt to invest in education, sound health and modest, basic care for people who are working their way up from birth in poverty or for those who have worked all of their lives (albeit often for low pay) can cost significantly less long term than some of the problems associated with grinding poverty that breeds hopelessness, addictions, and other aberrant behavior.
Does the US need to get a handle on it's spending? You bet.
Hi,
Well why cant they print more euros and pump it to the banks, that way they can reduce the value of the euro and make their economies more competative and at the same time take a hit in living standards .Nothing is free and pain has to be faced in the short term. Reducing the value of euro will make assets cheaper , attract money from china etc and create more jobs . It might hit the profits of the companies in europe but that is nothing compared to what will happen if this countries default. Inflation and lower standards is the pain for all the past actions of excess.
So if you have seen this movie before, why do you keep on bringing it up ????
I am really tired of seeing and hearing the same stories, change your tune .... please
In my opinion the Euro was an attempt to solidify the hold wealth has on Europe. This along with the world economy gives equality to all 1% of the world's population that are super rich. When the Euro became a trial model for the wealthy, if it worked the world's monies could then become conjoined with the dollar and Bingo they own it all. God help us all.
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Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Thomson Reuters (click for restrictions). Real-time quotes provided by BATS Exchange. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Interactive Data Real-Time Services. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by SIX Telekurs.
Japanese stock price data provided by Nomura Research Institute Ltd.; quotes delayed 20 minutes. Canadian fund data provided by CANNEX Financial Exchanges Ltd.
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