Is Now the Time to Be Buying Stocks?

Anthony Mirhaydari MSN Money January 19, 2012

1/18/2012 5:15 PM ET

By Anthony Mirhaydari, MSN Money

Despite recent upswings, 2012 is shaping up to be another lousy year for the global economy and financial markets. But here's why I'm optimistic long term.

Over the past few weeks, whilst a mood of holiday high spirits dominated, I've felt a bit like a naked loon covered only by a placard reading "The end is near."

It's been particularly nippy for me since the year began, with stocks perking up in a steady, low-volume, low-volatility advance. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) poked its head above 1,300 on Tuesday for the first time since summer, thanks to some better-than-expected economic data and an emerging worldwide narrative that global central bankers will solve all problems -- the eurozone crisis, China's slowdown and the feeble U.S. housing market, to name three.

Many stocks have rallied big -- especially beaten-down, economically sensitive names -- on a surge of short covering by people who were betting against them. Some examples: Beleaguered Netflix (NFLX, news) is trading above $90 a share after starting the year near $70; Caterpillar (CAT, news) has added nearly 20% over the past month; and Bank of America (BAC, news), which dipped under $5 a share in December, jumped above $7 last week for a cool 40% gain.

Still, I wasn't hearing scary voices in my head. I had good reason to sound the alarm, and I'm still worried.

Big, complicated macroeconomic issues -- often intertwined -- are combining with a slowdown in corporate profit growth and the ongoing wind-down of the West's epic debt bubble ($8 trillion in excess leverage, according to Credit Suisse) to create a treacherous investment environment in 2012. And based on disappointing hedge fund performance, this market has stumped even the Wall Street hotshots.

Anthony Mirhaydari

We have government debt issues, fiscal austerity, rising trade protectionism, the debt-ceiling debate, the rise and fall and rise again of crude oil, a stalling of earnings growth, a whiff of inflation, moribund banks, a spate of elections and mixed economic reports with sentiment high but job growth and housing still anemic.

No wonder stocks have been mired in a trading range since late 2009 and are hovering near levels first reached way back in 1999.

Yes, we're seeing a rally now, which may make you ask: Is it safe to buy stocks again?

By that I mean: Is it safe to buy them and own them for the long haul? This is the basic buy-and-hold strategy espoused by an army of financial advisers and the mutual fund industry, and followed by the majority of individual American savers -- those who don't have the time or inclination to try to trade like the pros.

The answer, I'm afraid, is not quite yet. It's a false dawn not unlike the one seen in early 2008 before the meltdown started. The volatility behind all this is set to continue for at least a year. The good news is that we could see the return of a 1980s-1990s style secular uptrend for the stock market as soon as 2013. Here's why you should wait until the smoke clears.

It's been painful

While stocks have largely flat-lined for the past 13 years, we've had periods of dreadful panic, such as in August and in the summer of 2010. And we've had powerful, low-volatility gains spurred by hopes of activist intervention by policymakers, such as the current rally, fueled largely by hopes of more money printing from the Federal Reserve. (Even though the Fed's latest attempt at what's called quantitative easing didn't do much for the economy.)

These big shifts in sentiment alternate, it seems, with all the regularity of the tides and the moon. It's been a trading environment where you needed to buy and sell to catch the tide and make money. And for most investors, this has been terribly uncomfortable.

No wonder, then, that people have flocked to the only asset class that's performed consistently well over this time: the venerable U.S. Treasury bond, with 10-year notes paying a small but reliable annual yield of just 1.89%. That's not enough to meet the retirement dreams of American savers, as I explained last week in "Can you build a $2 million 401k?" Not when experts are calling for young workers to aim toward retirement savings of $2 million or more by age 65.

Instead, these folks are throwing up their arms in disgust and raiding their retirement savings to pay for holiday shopping and new cars, or to cover school tuition or mortgages. According to a survey by consulting firm Aon Hewitt, (.pdf file) nearly one-third of 401k holders have a loan against their savings, and loan originations jumped 20% last year from 2010. For lower earners, the jump was as much as 60%.

Is buy and hold dead?

Whether by necessity or by choice, people are giving up on the idea of a comfortable retirement.

A survey by the Employee Benefit Research Institute (.pdf file) found that investor confidence hit a new low in 2011, as just 27% of workers said they're "not at all confident" they will have enough squirreled away for retirement. Almost 15% expect to still be working until age 70, up from 11% in 2006. Similar dynamics are hitting college savings as well.

In the short term, investors are casting a vote of no confidence in this economy as flows into money market funds -- essentially savings accounts -- have hit a 21-month high, returning to levels not seen since early 2009. In other words, people are acting as if we're back in a recession. I think they're right.

Continued: 5 reasons to like stocks long termSingle page12Next >RELATED ARTICLESAsk Anthony Mirhaydari: Where are stocks heading?- MSN Money2 keys to a real economic recovery - 2 - fixing the economy - MSN ...Why all signs point to chaos - 1 - Global economy - MSN MoneyHow to fix the black-hole economy - 1 - recession & recovery - MSN ...Has the new bear market arrived? - 1 - how to invest - MSN MoneyCan the Saudis save the economy? - 1 - Middle East unrest & oil ...VIDEO ON MSN MONEY/*$.dap("&PG=INVPEB&AP=1402",600,250,"ConAd-1");Feedback /**/ var scp_UserRating=-1; down_arrow_hover= new Image(); down_arrow_hover.src = 'http://blu.stc.s-msn.com/br/scp/css/15/decoration/toolbar/rating/down_hover.gif'; down_arrow_normal= new Image(); down_arrow_normal.src = 'http://blu.stc.s-msn.com/br/scp/css/15/decoration/toolbar/rating/down_normal.gif'; up_arrow_hover= new Image(); up_arrow_hover.src = 'http://blu.stc.s-msn.com/br/scp/css/15/decoration/toolbar/rating/up_hover.gif'; up_arrow_normal= new Image(); up_arrow_normal.src = 'http://blu.stc.s-msn.com/br/scp/css/15/decoration/toolbar/rating/up_normal.gif'; var scp_thankyoutext = 'Thank you!'; var scp_thankyoualttext = 'You have voted on this'; var scp_votestext = '{0} votes'; var scp_votescount = 17; var scp_errmsg = 'Errors occured while saving your rating. 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Why wouldn't anyone be optimistic about long term investing in the market???? First statment..... Is the American dream, of investing hard earned, lifetime money GONE!!!!!? 1 0ReportSpamidahojb23 minutes ago

For me, as long as it's not a time to sell, it's a time to buy. I am socking all I can into my 401K right now. Is it discouraging to break even? (at best). YES! However, this market will eventually turn around. It's not a matter of if, it's WHEN. I am in that 35-39 category, and I'm hoping that I'm buying in at a discount every 2 weeks when a deposit is made into my 401k. None of us can tell the future. If you're not buying, simply because this clown says it's not time, then you may be missing an opportunity. I say BUY because they're telling us not to. When they tell us to go ahead and buy, then it'll probably be time to SELL! That's the way it usually works.

0 0ReportSpamAgemingle. com4 hours agooh great article ,age is nothing but just a number. My boyfriend and i both think so.. He is almost 11year older than me .i met him via ~~~ＡｇｅＭｉｎｇｌｅ．ＣｏＭ~~ a nice place for younger women and oldermen, or older women and younger men, to interact with each other,maybe you wanna check it out or tell your friendshere is not a better time like this to buy (and sell) stocks, if you are in this, money can be made faster because the volatility. And money can be lost faster if you don"t know what you are doing.

Find your own strategy and read Anthony justo to have another opinion. Good luck!

0 0ReportSpamActive RIA4 hours ago

lol random we agree on that one ... this guy is a bit of a chameleon, but to his credit he is staying moderately bearish and cautious even in the face of this big snap-back rally since 10.3.11 we'll see if he can hang in there up to 1,350 or so.

i see a pull-back to mid 1100's unless euro zone is able to pull off a minor miracle. you?

1 0ReportSpamActive RIA4 hours ago

maybe you need to re-read my post?

presidents run on 4 year cycles, tragically doubled to 8 for w bush (ranked fifth worst president of all time): http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/independent_research/Presidents%202010%20Rank%20by%20Category.pdf

w took office 1.1.01 and the dow was at 10,887. he was handed a balanced budget surplus by clinton (normalized taxes) and republican congress (ended welfare program). by cutting taxes (tax welfare for the rich) and spending like a drunken cowboy fresh off the trail (two expensive, unnecessary wars, part d big pharma bonanza, etc. etc.) he more than doubled the national debt into double digits and drove the dow down to 8,776 by the time he left office 12.31.08 in shame and shambles.

after getting us back from the brink of apocalypse, the current, sane administration has the dow back to 12,579, only 11% from 14,000 (projected is 9% per year long-term, historical has been about 10-11% per year).

suggest you drop the 'tude dude, look up some basic civics and poli-sci info, research a chart of the dow, then make a big pot of coffee, inhale deeply, throw out the kool-aid and awaken ....

For those who understand, no explanation is needed. For those who do not understand, no explanation is possible.

1 0ReportSpamdenisthemenace4 hours agoI don't remember BAC jumping over $7.00 last week... when did that happen !!!! 1 0ReportSpamrandomnumbers4 hours agoThe way this author's articles seem to alternate between boom and bust could cause the susceptible to become bipolar... 2 0ReportSpamtheblamee5 hours ago

Active RIA. Don't know what dots your are talking about unless they are the candy kind, or what kind of math you can handle as it seems that you are missing all your fingers.

The DOW was at 14,000 before the crash. 2011 saw just about nothing and no improvement over 2010. A draw. Some say, in order to get back to values last seen when the DOW was at 14,000 would take 15-years.

Will a "DUH" help?

0 1ReportSpamActive RIA6 hours ago well blamee the dow was at 10,887 the day w bush/repubs took office and he drove it down to 8.776 by the day he left. obama/dems has it back up to 12,579. suggest you do the math, connect the dots and vote accordingly. 3 1ReportSpamtheblamee7 hours ago"Is It Safe to Buy Stocks Again?"

Gee. Well, let me think. Is the market back up to where it was before the crash? Remember the DOW at 14,000, because my 401k sure doesn't, and that was 4-years ago. Four years that I should have been making money and haven't.This should be an easy question to answer. If only the market was no scarier than a plastic shark, and the investor didn't feel like some endangered species being hunted to death. Where is that bigger boat we were promised, by the way?

And have any of those people responsible for preventing, creating, causing, and reporting on the great recession been prosecuted? (Sorry to have to bring that subject up Mr. Mirhaydari.) Why, no? So really nothing has changed has it? The game remains the same.

And I'm supposed to believe that it is safe to go back in the water?

Bring out the fake meat (and your best chum). Bring on the rally.

2 1ReportSpamLynn X8 hours ago"In the short term, investors are casting a vote of no confidence in this economy as flows into money market funds -- essentially savings accounts -- have hit a 21-month high, returning to levels not seen since early 2009. In other words, people are acting as if we're back in a recession." "Anthony Mirhaydari I think they're right." The Dow pushed it's way to 12,578.95 on Jan. 18, 2012 a level not seen for a long time. ''Uncertainty and danger: World Bank warns of downturn worse than 2008." There is always a lot of risk in the stock market but what are the options, put your money in a bank and earn zero or put it in stocks and gamble on 2012, which is supposed to a relatively flat but up year. 4 1ReportSpamearnest89 hours agoAnd the percentage of workers saying they are “very confident” of a comfortable retirement ties with 2009 at 13 percent—the lowest rate ever measured by the RCS. (From report) 9 0ReportSpamIrishbloody10 hours ago

There is not a better time like this to buy (and sell) stocks, if you are in this, money can be made faster because the volatility. And money can be lost faster if you don"t know what you are doing.

Find your own strategy and read Anthony justo to have another opinion. Good luck!

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[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks started the session at the flat line, but were able to put together a steady ascent that took the broad market to its best level in several months. ... More

More Market NewsStock TickerStory StocksIn PlayShort StoriesCurrenciesNAMELASTCHANGE% CHANGEThere's a problem getting this information right now. Please try again later.See more currenciesSponsored by:$.dap("&PG=INVSMS&AP=1025",120,30,"AdSponsor-summary");RECENT ARTICLESIs it safe to buy stocks again?The myth of the $1 CEOSecrets of the 401k millionaires The recurring curse of the euroInformal economy: Huge and growingJIM JUBAKThe recurring curse of the euro10 stocks for the next 10 yearsChina's Dr. Dolittle problemA wild election that could cost usChina's bear threat isn't overMORE FROM BINGBuying a car? How to haggle and winThe pros and cons of debt consolidationIs your cellphone spilling your secrets?Investing strategies for the long termUS cities with rising home pricesDo you know your retirement magic number?MUST-SEE ON MSNSPORTS

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suggest you drop the 'tude dude, look up some basic civics and poli-sci info, research a chart of the dow, then make a big pot of coffee, inhale deeply, throw out the kool-aid and awaken ....

For those who understand, no explanation is needed. For those who do not understand, no explanation is possible.

Active RIA. Don't know what dots your are talking about unless they are the candy kind, or what kind of math you can handle as it seems that you are missing all your fingers.

Will a "DUH" help?

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Is Now the Time to Be Buying Stocks?

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