Will Friday's Jobs Report Threaten Rally?

The market begins the week with that sense of unease that erupted Thursday.There's an unease from the Federal Reserve's announcement that it doesn't see raising interest rates before late 2014. Forecasting is an art at best. So, the worry is that the Fed will miss changes in economic conditions and not raise interest rates when it should. After all, few forecasters are right all the time, and most were wrong in 2008 -- including the Fed's economics staff -- in understanding how much havoc the bursting of the housing bubble would cause. Plus, there's Europe to worry about and rising prices for crude oil (-CL), gold (-GC), silver (-SI) and copper (-HG). Gold has risen nearly 11% in January; silver is up 21%.So, here's how the week ahead shapes up. The jobs/unemployment report dominates the weekThe jobs report for January is the key. Most economists are looking for the unemployment rate to hold at 8.5%, the same as in December. Payroll employment is expected to rise by another 150,000 jobs if all goes well. A few suggest the rate may bump higher and the payroll gains will be smaller than expected. Seasonal employment for the holidays has ended, including temporary jobs at FedEx (FDX) and UPS. Watch to see how much government payrolls fall back, particularly at the state and local levels. The declines in the sector are emerging as a significant drag on the economy. Markets for the week 1/27/2012 1/20/2012 % chg. YTD chg. Dow Industrials 12,660.46 12,720.48 -0.47% 3.63% S&P 500 1,316.33 1,315.38 0.07% 4.67% Nasdaq  2,816.55 2,786.70 1.07% 8.11% Russell 2000 798.85 784.62 1.81% 7.82% Crude oil  $99.56 $98.33 1.25% 0.74% (per barrel) U.S. Dollar Index  79.01 80.41 -1.73% -1.88% 10-yr. Treasury 1.90% 2.03% -6.41% 1.44% Gold $1,732.20 1,664.00 4.10% 10.56% The rest of the week: home prices, ISM and auto salesPersonal income and spending. Due Monday, from the Commerce Department. Look for small gains. S&P/Case-Shiller Home-Price Index for November, due Tuesday. This measures price trends in 20 markets. Prices have stopped falling precipitously. But they haven't stopped falling and won't in this report. The consensus is a 3.3% decline from a year earlier.Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, due Tuesday. This measures the business outlook for purchasing managers working in the Chicago area. It is widely watched. Nomura Securities expects the index to move higher. Consumer confidence, due Tuesday from The Conference Board. Good news in December on jobs and that nice December rally will give this a boost.Auto sales from major automakers, due Wednesday. Look for continued strength. There's talk auto sales could hit 14 million this year. Ford Motor (F) is looking for 13.5 million units. Look for January sales to hit an annualized rate of 13.5 million units.Institute for Supply Manufacturing Index for January. This is the biggest report of the week after the jobs report. Hours worked have been increasing. Look for a small gain.  Construction spending, due Wednesday from the Commerce Department. Residential spending should help this number.ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, due Friday. Most economists see a small gain. Factory orders, due Friday from the Commerce Department. Look for continued gains. Another heavy week for earningsThe fourth-quarter earnings season has frustrated many analysts. Some 59% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten estimates. That's the lowest rate since the fourth quarter of 2001, Thomson Reuters says. The earnings growth rate so far is 4.7%. Take out Apple's huge profit gain, and the growth rate drops to 4.7%.Here's the lineup. Monday: Honda Motor (HMC), Rent-a-Center (RCTI), Wendy's (WEN). Tuesday: Exxon Mobil, Amazon.com, Eli Lilly (LLY), Mattel (MAT), Pfizer (PFE) and UPS. Exxon will be closely watched to see if its refining and marketing businesses are having the same kinds of problems that Chevron acknowledged in its report on Friday. With Amazon.com, the question isn't revenue. It will be profitability.Wednesday: Aetna (AET), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Northrop Grumman (NOC), Qualcomm (QCOM) and Whirlpool (WHR). Northrop Grumman's outlook depends on how it sees defense spending. Whirlpool should help investors understand the housing market.Thursday: Cameron International (CAM), Cummins (CMI), Kellogg (K), Master Card (MA) and Merck. Cummins will be watched most closely because it supplies diesel engines to the trucking industry. A slowing economy will slow diesel sales. One other to watch: Royal Caribbean (RCL). The question is if the Costa Concordia disaster off the coast of Italy is affecting cruise-line reservations.Friday: Beam (BEAM), Estee Lauder (EL), Simon Property Group (SPG), Clorox (CLX) and Weyerhaeuser (WEY). All will help investors understand consumer spending and confidence. Beam used to be known as Fortune Brands and is best known as the maker of Jim Beam and Makers Mark bourbon. < Back to Latest Dispatches /**/ var scp_UserRating=-1; down_arrow_hover= new Image(); down_arrow_hover.src = 'http://blu.stc.s-msn.com/br/scp/css/15/decoration/toolbar/rating/down_hover.gif'; down_arrow_normal= new Image(); down_arrow_normal.src = 'http://blu.stc.s-msn.com/br/scp/css/15/decoration/toolbar/rating/down_normal.gif'; up_arrow_hover= new Image(); up_arrow_hover.src = 'http://blu.stc.s-msn.com/br/scp/css/15/decoration/toolbar/rating/up_hover.gif'; up_arrow_normal= new Image(); up_arrow_normal.src = 'http://blu.stc.s-msn.com/br/scp/css/15/decoration/toolbar/rating/up_normal.gif'; var scp_thankyoutext = 'Thank you!'; var scp_thankyoualttext = 'You have voted on this'; var scp_votestext = '{0} votes'; var scp_votescount = 36; var scp_errmsg = 'Errors occured while saving your rating. 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I'm a Republican, and you're the world's biggest and most stupid idiot. The government gets its money by taxing the earnings of its citizens. If they don't work, they don't earn and the government doesn't get any revenue in the form of taxes.

 

Americans want the services of their government the only question is how much.

 

I doubt that a moron like you could run a business like you claim. I find it also difficult to believe you could earn a living due to being severely retarded.

 

An old saying is don't argue with a fool, so I won't bother you again stupid fool.

    1    0ReportSpamMirageGuy3 hours ago

Mr FatCat you seem to be denser than the average democrat...

 

Where does government get the money it spends?   It takes it from business and people.  Thus it REMOVES its from the JOB creating private sector. 

 

Every government pay check comes by reducing the private sector payrolls. 

 

Want to reduce unemployment?  Leave the money with the private sector to create demand and jobs.  Quit using government to suck money (and thus demand and jobs) from the private sector.

 

And while you are at it get rid of corporate taxes.  Then CONgress would not have to create thousands of pages of tax code to curry favor and disfavor.  I know this allows CONgress to extort money from the corporate world to by the special interest deductions.  Thats why the tax code is 47,000 pages long.  Of course if you dumped the tax corporate tax, most corporations would have no reason to ogive money to CONgress anymore...

 

Liberals amaze me, if you premise was true we could raise taxes to 100% and we would wipe out unemployment. 

    2    1ReportSpamMr Fat Cat3 hours ago

MG you're nuts. Government spending buys good and services which provides money to both the public and private sector to pay wages and it creates savings and investments.

 

Unemployment is due to the weak economy which is a result of the financial melt down.  A lot of employment was directly and indirectly tied to the housing and  banking sectors.

 

The government spends more than it receives in tax revenues requiring borrowing he difference. That's why there is a deficit.

 

You write all this long-winded nonsense without an ounce of thought about what you're saying. You turn everything into a GD conspiracy, and you look like a stupid fool in doing it.

    2    2ReportSpamstx0133 hours agoJust back from two weeks in the carib, you still fighting about the same sh!t.     0    0ReportSpamMirageGuy4 hours ago

ActiveRIA...I could care less about gays, abortion or religion.  I have said so repeatedly...  Who obe sleeps with or worships is none of my business.  On abortion I don't have an opinion, except its not a right mentioned in the constitution, so I think it should be left up to the states.  I am fine with a majority vote to legalize or not.

 

And as you have may have noted in the past I am Ok with legalizing drugs.  I am OK with spending on just about anything, as long as the budget is balanced.  I am for reducing Defense spending unless we are paid to be the world's cop.  Matter of fact we need an immediate reduction of at least 300 billion in defense NOW. 

 

But this democrat concept that  we can SPEND and BORROW and destroy the economy must end. 

 

So I ask you again, can we return to W levels of Insolvency?   Slash ONE Trillion in spending NOW, and Simpson-Bowles needs 10 Trillion not 4 Trillion in spend cuts.  

 

I know you rather SPEND, BORROW, and DEBASE.  You are a liberal democrat plain and simple...  you might think you are moderate, but you are extreme left wing...

    2    0ReportSpamMirageGuy4 hours ago

Max Sparticus...

 

Government spending INCREASES unemployment as money is sucked from the PRIVATE sector and redeployed to the government sector.  This of money of course is then lost to the private JOB CREATING economy.  This is why after 5 Trillion in deficit spending, Unemployment soared to over 10%.  Only in the last year, with Obama's SPENDING dead on arrival has the private sector begun to recover.  If can continue this shrinking of government jobs, maybe the more will be created as we end "Government Trickle Down"...

 

sorry but  their is a direct collelation between government spending and unemployment increasing...

    2    0ReportSpamMr Fat Cat4 hours ago

Some of you talk about monetizing the debt. I wonder if you know what this is?

 

The Government needs say a $1K, so it issues a $1K Treasury bond. The Fed then buys it putting a $1K in the hands of that government to pay it $1K debt.

 

That isn't what is happening. I can see most of you can't distinguish the monetary base (cash + reserves) from the money supply. The Fed is increasing the monetary base, but not the money supply. It is using these reserves to buy mortgages from financial institutions and make loans to various cash strapped banks. Banks depend upon other banks for loans to meet their reserve requirements, but interbank lending has frozen up due to the crisis. Thus the Fed has stepped in.

 

The Fed is also paying interest on bank reserves to stabilize the Fed Funds Rate and to control bank lending. By the Fed paying interest on reserves, it can control the banks willingness to lend. As mentioned, the Fed is also lending money directly to firms and purchasing certain types of assets. These monies all end up in the banking system increasing the level of reserves.

 

Anyway, the excess level of reserves isn't creating inflation like monetizing the debt would. If the banks were doing excessive lending resulting in a strong economy, it'd be reflected in the recent GDP numbers which certainly shows the economy to be very weak.

 

This is a very technical subject, and I haven't haven't fleshed out all the details. To do it, I'd have to type all night. Often times, you can just look at the big picture like GDP to determine things like inflation.

 

 

    3    1ReportSpamRe-TOG Re-TOG  (Re-TOG) 4 hours ago

Well have a good night Active,I had to vent on a subject that really irks me....And it took this Nation to a pitful location....And hurt a lot of retirees and people that were ready to retire.

 

Now many of them are still working....And we have a pretty good idea what happened to everyone else...?

And everyone is just pointing fingers at everyone else..Nobody admits blame,until they are prosec..

Maybe I had better have about 3 fingers...I just finished my financials for the week...Ciao 

Think I have work to do on WS tomorrow,after I get the guys going.?

    1    1ReportSpamActive RIA4 hours ago

 ok, i think i can answer that one qt, as i am a bit of an individualist myself as a bike rider (think racing and road trips - not sturgis and tattoos), an independent voter, considered quite the "hippie" in my day (yes, long hair, bell-bottoms, anti-war, pot, etc.- great music) and now a self-made entrepreneur with a multi-faceted holistic financial services firm and a multitude of degrees/certificatio​ns.

 

ron paul is good for the country to brainstorm - someone to shake us up and see what might be possible, however he is an extremist and principle-based.  if you align with his extreme ideas for change then you are running with the devil (from the rock song, not literally).  you are defined by the company you keep.

 

now, i am not trying to throw water on your patriotic new-ideas fire, only saying that we are a huge country with many cultures, languages, religions, age groups, north-south, lib-conserv, poor-rich, etc. and in a large democracy the majority rules (with exceptions based on state/local law).  the beauty is that we have freedom of speech, freedom to relocate and freedom to associate/disassocia​te with people we like/dislike.  this system is the best on earth and the best in history, despite its flaws.

 

from experience, i can tell you that anarchy/the violence in oakland/civil violence is not the answer.  ALL OWS members should be required to study (for you guys watch the movie) Ghandi and learn about the power of civil disobedience, moving bank accounts to local banks and credit unions, and social investing.  change within the system takes longer, but lasts longer as well.

 

have patience, don't let the b******s get you down, stay out of real trouble, and work hard for your ideals WITH LOVE, consideration and respect for your fellow man, be they liberal or right-wing - and toast them:

 

"so here's to you, and here's to me,

and should we ever disagree .....

 

well **** you then, here's to me!"   (kidding ... try to compromise) ....    

 

p.s. excelent point - the top 400 in America have more wealth than the bottom 50% of Americans (over 130 million people).  just think about where that puts them on a global basis and it's no wonder why many "hate" Americans.  a whole lot of nothing makes a man nothing but mean.*

 

* props to peter, paul & mary (an old folk music group)

    2    1ReportSpamQ Tip Assassin4 hours ago. Bush and the Republican legislature have cause enough damage, it's time to heal our nation and stop the power mongeringAgain, Here I see us talking about, taking a trip to fantasy land.  The bottom 50% in this country are the global 5-10%.  Halfassedism (patent pending) from all sides.     1    2ReportSpamActive RIA5 hours ago

 quick check-in mg - you are accurate on that per fact check.  i was wrong, and so were you. a $4.9 trillion increase (the largest in two terms in history) over 8 years is $612.5 billion per year - a far cry from the $400 billion you calculated.  go here to see the problem with holding up bush as an example of any manner of fiscal restraint: http://jimcgreevy.co​m/gvdc/Natl_Debt_Cha​rt.html

 

in answer to your question: in your mind i could be a card-carrying tea party activist and you would still say that i was a gay, pro-choice, bleeding heart liberal socialist, so why even ask?  : )

 

point taken - i will refer to "almost $5 trillion increase" in the future - Heaven knows i would not want to tarnish w's image in any way .... and i remain, your faithful comrade ....

    2    1ReportSpamQ Tip Assassin5 hours ago

So civil unrests, riots in streets, no jobs, banks, or food, etc, again, to me, comes down to leading by example as I mentioned before.  Whether it's here in the US, or abroad.  

 

Talking about a world without those things...  It's the extreme vision.  I'd gladly put on the standard issue global uniform, reside in green 600 sq ft, 200 sq ft per additional household member while evolving into the same shade of gray as everyone else, working for the people...  On the other hand, I like doing what I wanna do.

 

So what's solution. everyone the same, everyone doing what they wanna do, or trying to herd intelligent individual clever beings into doing what you think they should be doing.?  Obviously we're talking fantasy in terms of the world and how it exists.

 

I think we'd get a lot further if our global "leaders" would set the example.

    0    0ReportSpamRe-TOG Re-TOG  (Re-TOG) 5 hours ago

Only thing I have drank in Mexico,was rum and bottled coke...Sometimes a little whiskey.....

 

And of course...Maguey...Gi​ve me three fingers,please. and a little salt.   

    1    0ReportSpamRe-TOG Re-TOG  (Re-TOG) 5 hours ago

Yup,Doug I'm a birder.....Bad enough that I have to fight and fool the Hawks away from my lesser feather friends........NOW,

 

I have to hang mice in the trees for the owls.

We have mostly Big Hooties(Horned)  and some Screech owls around, once in a blue moon a Barn owl.....They stick to the woods or roads, maybe yard, late at night for mice.  We have lots of Cats.

 

Eagles are starting to show up or are coming back..They don't give us any trouble, yet.

    1    0ReportSpammax sparticas5 hours agoMirage, you scathe the Democrats for not cutting spending when we both know spending cuts mean only one thing, lost jobs. Republican's have sunk so low that they don't care how many working families they hurt and throw under the bus as long as the can get the power back. I can't believe that anyone even you would approve. Bush and the Republican legislature have cause enough damage, it's time to heal our nation and stop the power mongering.     1    2ReportSpamRe-TOG Re-TOG  (Re-TOG) 5 hours ago

Ahhhhhh,Yes I forgot and did not mention speculators or "flippers" I forgot those low lifes.

 

I've partied with a few down at the Lake, and others at my sisters lake house....

All they wanted to do was talk business or suck some others in to the fold..

They thought they were at a Tupperware party or something of the sort.......

They new I was an investor....So I would set far across the deck. OR

The other end of the boat,so I couldn't hear their bu11shidt.

I bitched at my sister and B-law,they apologized and said others had mentioned that also,before;

But they were close friends and I let it go.

BUT IT ALL STARTED WHEN THEY PUT A SIGN OUT IN FRONT..........

    3    0ReportSpamDoug  (Out in the cold) 5 hours agoQ tip Assassin .. I haven't been in Mexico for decades, but I still remember the that glass of water down there .. drink pasteurized beer for your health.     3    0ReportSpamQ Tip Assassin6 hours agoa great depression means riots, mass civil unrest, no banks, no jobs, no food, hundreds of thousands dying from starvation/exposure/​no healthcare. you may not be far right but that was quite an extreme statement about being willing to accept this - I liked it better without the edit :P..   More after this beer.     2    0ReportSpamQ Tip Assassin6 hours agoI hope you (younger generation) crack the history books a little harder

Don't worry, it's not like a literal word for word blind faith on all accounts, but his economic ideas strike a chord with both the left and right.  Some tweaking wouldn't hurt. 

 

From your weather reports, I think I'm actually going to be glad I'll be in Mexico City for a couple weeks in Feb.

    3    0ReportSpamDoug  (Out in the cold) 6 hours agoQ Tip Assassin .. I hope you (younger generation) crack the history books a little harder, because what Ron Paul is preaching is the isolationism and laissez-faire attitude that followed WW 1 and got us into WW 2.  You can't fix things over-night, that took years to make .. but don't make mistakes twice.     4    2ReportSpam     of 8    Add a commentReportPlease help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. 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$.dap("&PG=INVNWS&AP=1089",300,250,"dapAd3");FeedbackRECENT QUOTES/*WATCHLIST/*Learn MoreView full page SymbolLastChangeSharesWhere's my list|Update quotes|Clear this listQuotes delayed at least 15 minSponsored by:$.dap("&PG=INVSRQ&AP=1025",120,30,"quotead");MARKET UPDATEUSINTERNATIONALNAMELASTCHANGE% CHANGEThere's a problem getting this information right now. Please try again later.NAMELASTCHANGE% CHANGEThere's a problem getting this information right now. Please try again later.

[BRIEFING.COM] Listless and lackluster action left stocks to slog along in negative territory for almost the entire session, but a late lift helped the S&P 500 limit its loss in the face of disappointing fourth quarter GDP data. The effort ensured the broad market measure eked out an incremental gain of less than 0.1% for the week. Still, that marked its fourth straight weekly gain. ... More

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The January rally ran into selling pressure as the week ended. Several reports in the coming week, especially Friday's jobs report, could add to the pressure. The week's key earnings: Amazon.com, Exxon, UPS, Merck and Cummins.

Dow sees first weekly loss of 2012Gold sustains its rally against falling dollarStocks mostly lower on GDP reportEarnings watch: Starbucks, FordStocks rebound from European worries Dow finishes up 33; Street lives with Alcoa resultsTOP STOCKSFacebook IPO filing due next week

The company may seek to raise as much as $10 billion, The Wall Street Journal says, with a market cap of $75 billion to $100 billion. That would make the company more valuable than Amazon.com.

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Americans want the services of their government the only question is how much.

 

I doubt that a moron like you could run a business like you claim. I find it also difficult to believe you could earn a living due to being severely retarded.

 

An old saying is don't argue with a fool, so I won't bother you again stupid fool.

Mr FatCat you seem to be denser than the average democrat...

 

Where does government get the money it spends?   It takes it from business and people.  Thus it REMOVES its from the JOB creating private sector. 

 

Every government pay check comes by reducing the private sector payrolls. 

 

Want to reduce unemployment?  Leave the money with the private sector to create demand and jobs.  Quit using government to suck money (and thus demand and jobs) from the private sector.

 

And while you are at it get rid of corporate taxes.  Then CONgress would not have to create thousands of pages of tax code to curry favor and disfavor.  I know this allows CONgress to extort money from the corporate world to by the special interest deductions.  Thats why the tax code is 47,000 pages long.  Of course if you dumped the tax corporate tax, most corporations would have no reason to ogive money to CONgress anymore...

 

Liberals amaze me, if you premise was true we could raise taxes to 100% and we would wipe out unemployment. 

MG you're nuts. Government spending buys good and services which provides money to both the public and private sector to pay wages and it creates savings and investments.

 

Unemployment is due to the weak economy which is a result of the financial melt down.  A lot of employment was directly and indirectly tied to the housing and  banking sectors.

 

The government spends more than it receives in tax revenues requiring borrowing he difference. That's why there is a deficit.

 

You write all this long-winded nonsense without an ounce of thought about what you're saying. You turn everything into a GD conspiracy, and you look like a stupid fool in doing it.

ActiveRIA...I could care less about gays, abortion or religion.  I have said so repeatedly...  Who obe sleeps with or worships is none of my business.  On abortion I don't have an opinion, except its not a right mentioned in the constitution, so I think it should be left up to the states.  I am fine with a majority vote to legalize or not.

 

And as you have may have noted in the past I am Ok with legalizing drugs.  I am OK with spending on just about anything, as long as the budget is balanced.  I am for reducing Defense spending unless we are paid to be the world's cop.  Matter of fact we need an immediate reduction of at least 300 billion in defense NOW. 

 

But this democrat concept that  we can SPEND and BORROW and destroy the economy must end. 

 

So I ask you again, can we return to W levels of Insolvency?   Slash ONE Trillion in spending NOW, and Simpson-Bowles needs 10 Trillion not 4 Trillion in spend cuts.  

 

I know you rather SPEND, BORROW, and DEBASE.  You are a liberal democrat plain and simple...  you might think you are moderate, but you are extreme left wing...

Max Sparticus...

 

Government spending INCREASES unemployment as money is sucked from the PRIVATE sector and redeployed to the government sector.  This of money of course is then lost to the private JOB CREATING economy.  This is why after 5 Trillion in deficit spending, Unemployment soared to over 10%.  Only in the last year, with Obama's SPENDING dead on arrival has the private sector begun to recover.  If can continue this shrinking of government jobs, maybe the more will be created as we end "Government Trickle Down"...

 

sorry but  their is a direct collelation between government spending and unemployment increasing...

Some of you talk about monetizing the debt. I wonder if you know what this is?

 

The Government needs say a $1K, so it issues a $1K Treasury bond. The Fed then buys it putting a $1K in the hands of that government to pay it $1K debt.

 

That isn't what is happening. I can see most of you can't distinguish the monetary base (cash + reserves) from the money supply. The Fed is increasing the monetary base, but not the money supply. It is using these reserves to buy mortgages from financial institutions and make loans to various cash strapped banks. Banks depend upon other banks for loans to meet their reserve requirements, but interbank lending has frozen up due to the crisis. Thus the Fed has stepped in.

 

The Fed is also paying interest on bank reserves to stabilize the Fed Funds Rate and to control bank lending. By the Fed paying interest on reserves, it can control the banks willingness to lend. As mentioned, the Fed is also lending money directly to firms and purchasing certain types of assets. These monies all end up in the banking system increasing the level of reserves.

 

Anyway, the excess level of reserves isn't creating inflation like monetizing the debt would. If the banks were doing excessive lending resulting in a strong economy, it'd be reflected in the recent GDP numbers which certainly shows the economy to be very weak.

 

This is a very technical subject, and I haven't haven't fleshed out all the details. To do it, I'd have to type all night. Often times, you can just look at the big picture like GDP to determine things like inflation.

 

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