Yale & Jeff Hirsch
About the Editor Jeff is editor in chief of the Almanac Investor newsletter Stock Trader's Almanac, StockTradersAlmanac.com, and the Hirsch Organization. He makes frequent appearances on CNBC, CC, Fox, and Bloomberg. Yale Hirsch is founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
In the February Almanac, it was noted that February is typically the weak link in the Best Six Months ranking no better than ninth out of twelve months on the major U.S. indices we track. Even bullish election year forces have failed to lift February’s standings with no large-cap index ranked better than ninth (DJIA and S&P 500 since 1952, Russell 1000 since 1980) in election years since 1950. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have better election year records largely due to a 19.2% and 16.4% gains, respectively in 2000. But, January finished with the best gain since 1997 and February began in typically bullish fashion. So what does history suggest about the rest of February? Below, every S&P 500 January gain of 4% or more since 1930 is presented with the subsequent performance over the next 1-month, 3-months, 6-months and full-year. Even with three Depression-era years and post-WWII 1946 in the list, strong Januarys have been especially bullish indicators with average full-year gains of 15.0%. But, February was still a weak link in 9 of the previous 24 big Januarys.
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