All Roads Lead To Inflation

Bill Fleckenstein MSN Money February 6, 2012

2/3/2012 5:14 PM ET

By Bill Fleckenstein, MSN Money

Irrational fears of deflation have wrought irrational monetary and economic policies. And that has us headed toward something truly scary.

Bill Fleckenstein

To state the obvious, the Federal Reserve's announcement that it intended to keep the federal funds rate rates at zero longer than folks had expected was perhaps the biggest news of the past couple of weeks. (The Lord of the Dark Matter, my anonymous friend whom I also quoted last week. described the situation as follows: "The FOMC is attempting to wrap a giant gamble in a thin tissue of probity and monetary science. They have no clue how this will pan out. None.")

The bond market, notably, managed to pull out of its recent funk, as rates out to three years are now approaching zero. But, that knee-jerk response aside, I believe it is starting to dawn on people that the central banks of the world are going to win the battle over the scary "deflationary accident" that is being threatened by the debt mess in Europe.

The Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank are all understood to have printed plenty of money and will continue on that path. The European Central Bank has also printed a great deal of money, but its long-term refinancing operation was initially sort of scoffed at, though it is now being taken more seriously. Round 2 will be at the end of February, and it is possible that in its wake we will finally get past the period of people worrying about deflation.

Too big to fail

Longtime readers know that my motto has always been that, "in a social democracy with a fiat currency, all roads lead to inflation." The past few years have shown why. It is the fear of potential deflation that precipitates the policies that have seen gold trade from $250 to almost $2,000 an ounce over the past 10 years and have boosted the price of most items that aren't related to the burst real-estate bubble (which decidedly does not equal deflation).

It remains to be seen if Europe can avoid a banking-system collapse precipitated by the inability of governments there to roll their debt. But, if enough money is printed by the European Central Bank (even if that printing is just called an LTRO), then I think Europe will skinny on by.

And, if we are finally at that inflection point, the world will then slowly begin to concern itself with stagflation and inflation, and eventually the world's bond market participants will start to demand more in interest-rate compensation due to real rates being negative, which will shut down the central bankers' printing presses. No one will accept negative real rates and just getting their money back if they are no longer worried about a deflationary collapse.

How much were you looking to spend?

In sum, I believe we are approaching (if not at) that inflection point and that deflation is about to become very old news until sometime down the road, potentially when the printing press is taken away from the central banks.

Obviously, in a world without money printing, we could eventually see deflation. But that would be a good thing. After all, deflation occurs when prices of goods and services decline, and who is against that? Unfortunately, deflation has come to mean the economic environment of the 1930s, and thus people are terribly confused about what the word actually means. (They are also confused about what constitutes inflation.)

In that environment, gold will do well, but if the bond markets of the world take rates higher, despite the protestations of the central banks, people will have to adjust the way they think about the stock market and the economy.

On the air

My latest interview with Eric King on King World News was a wide-ranging discussion touching on the current situation in Europe; the latest Fed maneuvers; deflation, inflation, and stagflation; the perversity of markets; the economic outlook; and, of course, metals and miners. Interested readers can listen to it here.

At the time of publication, Bill Fleckenstein owned gold.

This column is a synopsis of Bill Fleckenstein's daily column on his website, FleckensteinCapital.com, which he's been writing on the Internet since 1996. Click here to find Fleckenstein's most recent articles.

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69CommentsNewestOldestBestWorstControversial1234 Someone (pad iowa)6 seconds ago

The U.S is spending 42% more dollars than they are taking in and can you spell bankruptcy? G.M. is making money and not paying back the tax payers.

Thanks

obama!!!

0 0ReportSpamTomj1412 minutes agoInMyHo - Core inflation is a measure of inflation which excludes certain items that face volatile price movements, notably food and energy.We may not have inflation, but the cost of food and energy sure has went up.Gas prices from 12/5 2008 have gone from $1.61 to $3.37The price of milk has gone up 17% since 2008, along with most other food.So I guess the actual facts make people chicken-littles? 1 0ReportSpamInMyHO24 minutes ago

Chicken-littles like you have been crying wolf about inflation and the bond vigilantes since the beginning of the recession while interest rates have not risen and neither has core inflation. I guess if you keep saying it it might turn out to be true sometime. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

1 0ReportSpamBaal Sach27 minutes agoto big to fail, too stupid to live: made in u.s.a. - that is kind of funny...still waiting on the zombie apokolypse 0 0ReportSpamInoYou33 minutes agoImpeach Obama. 21 4ReportSpamc (char40167)40 minutes ago

Just an observation: The government has been dumping money into the economy which (all things equal) should increase inflation. However the banks are not lending and corporations are holding onto their money, which appears to have balanced things out a bit. Borrow while you can because as the economy improves, interest rates will probably increase fairly quickly. If you are a company that is not expanding because of politics you may miss the wagon, but then I'm an engineer, not an economist

1 1ReportSpamjonny jiggles42 minutes agowith Obama running record deficits this is not news- they think they can print us out of this recession- 14 5ReportSpamiluvbanks57 minutes ago i Google the term fiat currency and found that every nation that wanted to build a empire could only do so by dumping sound money and switch to fiat, but in doing so caused hyperinflation and collapse within.....good example is ammo, when a box of 50 round 45 cal cost $15.69 in march 2011, then in Jan 2012 that same box cost $18.99. i know that's not hyperinflation but im curious how much will that box cost at the end of the year? 6 2ReportSpamSomeone1 hour ago

Ron Paul has been Warning us about this for decades, trying to get us to stop, but no, not a single person wanted to listen till we bit the bullet. He was the only politician to predict the housing bubble warning and trying to pass legislation to prevent it but no.

He is the only person who has the right knowledge to even try and fix the mess were in.

The only person that has created a budget in which 1 trillion of mostly foreign spending will be cut and budget balanced in 3 years. Troops will be home protecting this country not Afghanistan.

Obama will keep printing money, destroy the Bill of Rights(NDAA, SOPA, PIPA, ACTA)Romney wants "a military so powerful no one would ever think of challenging it"(While our current military spending is %48 of the who world combined)Gingrich wants Colony on the moonSantorum wants war with Iran and probably all other Muslim countries.

Ron Paul wants you to be free, keep your hard earned money, and for america to be the greatest nation once again, like it was when we followed constitution.

If Dr Paul does not get elected we deserve whats coming to us.

33 12ReportSpamdyad1 hour agoDeflation is anathema to the financial and political elite's interests, perhaps even their very existence. For that reason alone, it is highly unlikely. But as most people know - or certainly should - inflation is a very different story."… let's return to basic math. Right now, we're spending (at the federal level) $2.4 trillion per year on transfer payments(SS/Medicare/aide/unemployment/etc./etc.) and interest on our national debt. That doesn't include any of the other functions of the government – nothing else. Meanwhile, we are only collecting $2.3 trillion a year in income, payroll, and corporate taxes." The bold highlighted section is factual. No opinion, no spin - just the raw numbers.Now pretend you are among the rarefied "masters of the universe". You know that "deflating" your way out of this insane debt is literally not possible - the social chaos alone could cost you your fortune or even your life.What are you going to do? 7 1ReportSpamFrank R (joelem7)1 hour ago

STOP PRINTING MONEY!! The monies that are being printed are to bailout the wealthy and the banks and big business must stop.The more that is given, the more are the expectations are for higher pay day for doing the same poor job. Think about it, they borrow at zero percent but look to charge five percent or higher to those people that are up to their ears in debt. Where is the justice? Want to decrease inflation. STOP THE PRINTING PRESSES!! Place a cap on interest rates on government borrowed monies. These are loans that are being made by our future children and grandchildren that have not even been born yet. Forgive a percentage of a person’s outstanding debt, according to gross their income, for those that earn 150,000 or less yearly. If financial institutions fail they fail, they lose but not investors, still backed up to the old FDIC limits of 100,000. Keeping energy costs down in the USA is the key. Use our own resources. American resources mean it belongs to the American people. That means American owned and operated business. We would be able to make anything cheaper, better and ship it for less. If energy cost for the rest of the world goes through the roof, better for us and shame on them. Now before any assistance goes anywhere else, take care of the American people first! Use the Military for health care, plenty of locations and make doctors not bombs. Now all of the American people would have health care if they cannot afford it.

There are plenty of ways to save America!! Only if America puts America first!!

16 3ReportSpamthe bart man1 hour agotoo me nothing is getting better, i have been out of work for 2 years and have not had but two interviews and nothing, i am 51 years old and have two kids 12 and 14 they pray for me every night and ask god to help me find a job, i know this sounds stupid but it is true and i am looking all the time there is just nothing out there. and who is going to hire a 51 year old man? also it is hard for me to look at my kids because they deserve better than this. i had a good job as a construction superintendent and we had a house and all the good stuff a hard working person should have and we did not splurge. than the bottom fell out and we lost every thing. 8 3ReportSpamParLN1 hour agoThanks to Obama and printing press Bernanke we are headed for trouble. The 70s might look like a cake walk in comparison. Ronald Reagan II where are you? 23 16ReportSpamjohn 1111 hour agoWait just a minute, what the heck do we have right now? Anybody been to the grocery store lately, or filled the gas tank, or paid their electric and water bill lately or paid their property taxes or had a car repaired. So come on now, the banks and world governments are run by morons and a greedy gang of thugs. The free market has turned into a license to steal and screw each other that's why the world as we know it is over. You elect your neighbor to a government office or to the local utility company or county government and the first thing they want to do is screw you for their own benefit because from then on they work for the government not for you. 42 3ReportSpamupperdoper3 hours ago Deflation of net income = Inflation. Less income more taxes = high inflation. Inflation = Less value of money = Less buying power. 47 7ReportSpamJeremy123413 hours agoI see lots of people defending Obama against lots of people saying its his fault. I voted for Obama last year twice (Democratic Caucus and actual presidential election). So you can say I was a very strong supporter for him.Problem we have with Obama, he may not have created this mess, but he is doing very little in the way of fixing it. Especially, when he appoints Tim Geithner as Secretary of treasury who was member of the federal reserve board part of the mess in the first place. And he kept Bernenke, who was at the helm when it all went down. I don't know about you, but if I have managers that F things up this massively, it becomes apparent they are incompatent to stay in that position, they are fired. Not promoted or kept. Second, there has been no movement toward trade protection to encourage US manufactures or services to stay in the US. This could be an immediate small bill that would allow subsidies and tax credits for firms doing business over seas to come back to the US, at the same time ending loop holes and preventing items being manufactured over seas from being taxed when these items are supplied to retailers in the US (encouraging production in the US while discouraging production over seas). I'm sure most sides of the isle would agree on something like this. But no movement towards this, fear of trade war keeps being cited by all the other national leaders of other nations Obama has been talking to. He needs to forget about them and look after our nation for a change. We no longer have credit we can rack up to make up for the demand, buying power differences in currency are vanishing, and real wages in the US for many are stagnate to diminishing, and many are in debt to their eye balls in one form or another (credit card, vehicle, medical, student loans, etc.). Education is the only place Obama has touched. He's signed in a the hope law. Which fades out after 2013 to assist those getting their 4 year degree (tax credit worth up to 2500). And he's lowered SSN tax to laborers from the usually 6% to 4%. That helps. But all of these items are band aids and actually can cause problems in the long run. Everyone with a 4 yr degree means they'll need a 6 yr masters or 8 years phd to be competitive. So the root of the issue hasn't been address. Our trade policies, our money policies, energy policy to produce more fuels and get an alternate fuel source online by the next decade (as large as the moon project), a medical bill that's a single payer system option, not some buy out to the insurance companies forcing everyone to pay for insurance who can't afford it at the whatever the market can bear.I understand that the republicans have tried their best to stop most things from going through. And they gained the majority in the House. But they dems still own the senate and the white house. I'm unimpressed with what has been done so far. I don't know who I will vote for, if anyone. The republican candidates are a laughing joke, even the best candidate I think of is Mitt and he'd, as the rest of them, would institute a policy like Hoover did during the start of the great depression. Ron Paul actually seems interesting as he'd at least bring about great change (hopefully) but I've been duped before by Obama about such things, yet Paul is at least specific in his changes. However, I doubt any of Ron Paul's agenda items would ever get through congress. So, that come back to my point. I don't think anyone is worth voting for. None of them will solve this mess. They're all in denial or something. Biggest thing just concentrate on your life. Don't get sucked into stupid politics and ask even your person you support tough questions and get them to respond. These people care little about you. It is important to take care of yourself and you community. No more sacred people or idol worship. We have to hold these people accountable. And we're not as a country. They all should be voted out. 172 20ReportSpam9Jr384624 hours agoDon't know about that inflation but I know they're gouging us on gas right now, and been doing it since weeks before Obama took office. Looks kinda suspicious, almost like the Republicans have been pulling strings and favors with oil companies since they got tossed out of the WH. The high prices have definitely created worry and cuts in all business due to higher overhead and damaging any forward progress in recovery. Wouldn't be a bit surprised to hear the Republicans sabotage as much as they could to get total power again. 68 168ReportSpamewent5 hours ago

I hate to be the one to throw a monkey wrench into the Obama bash fest. But, President Obama has zero to do with price increases. Now all the little bois itching to lob this one on the President will have to just eat crow.

What do you fools think would happen when all of your dependency on foreign goods and services begins to increase prices? The culprits who are to blame are your Big Biggie Piggies in Big Business. These stupid actually thought that all that cheap labor and cheap pricing on imports to the US from their countrie would be sustainable far into the future...shows what a bunch of dumbos they are.

They help to stabilize foreign economies from whence their cheap labor and imports to the US come and then think these foreign countries are okee dokes who won't figure out they can squeeze more money from Americans for their exports. Think again oh mighty Grand Pubbahs of Dumbness.

Chinese, Taiwanese, Thai and Mexican workers and their governments want more for what they export to the US. That and only that is why the cost of goods you buy locally go up. How's that crow taste now?

99 181ReportSpamewent5 hours ago

The Obama bashers love to ignore facts. Most of the top world experts have already stated that a return to gold standard won't work. So enough with the tired out old line "Obama is printing money." When historic data on the use of the gold standard is carefully reviewed, the fluctuations in gold value didn't help the economy. Get another sob story to blame this president for. Reagan, Bush I and Bush II all printed "money". And it wasn't backed by a gold standard.

The hoochie coos who can't get out of bed in the morning without lobbing blame on this and only this president are pathetic degenerates who don't even bother to get their facts straight.

104 228ReportSpamewent5 hours ago

Look, it doesn't take a PhD in Economics to figure out that the more a balloon expands, the more it reaches its limits of expansion. Basic analogy and it behooves the economic geniuses to keep that in mind. Since the end of WWII, the prices on goods and services have constantly increased. The economic balloon was expanding. By the year 2008, the balloon was about to burst. And did.

So what are the options after a balloon bursts? You learn an economic lesson. Prices that rise too high too fast fill the economic balloon all the faster and the burst comes quicker. One point that's missing...AFTER the balloon bursts, the choice is to buy another balloon and continue the same ridiculous patterns of recklessness and high risk...or....tah dah...You learn from your mistakes and stop the breakneck speed of inflation.

What is soooo difficult to understand about that? Or is it the adrenalin rush hotchas get from soaring prices and the cost of living out of control? Time for a big time Chill Out before the hotchas burst themselves instead of balloons.

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