Don't Worry, America Isn't Going Broke

Anthony Mirhaydari MSN Money February 9, 2012

2/8/2012 7:20 PM ET

By Anthony Mirhaydari, MSN Money

You may have heard the nation is out of money. In fact, despite our fast-growing national debt, markets are eager to lend us money, cheap. But this won't last unless we act.

Of all Super Bowl commercials, Chrysler's latest pro-America, Imported-from-Detroit pep talk may be getting the most attention. As you've no doubt seen by now, Clint Eastwood's steely gaze and growling baritone speak of a county knocked down but not out. A country that's hurting, scared and angry. A country that's lost its AAA credit rating. A country that needs to pull together to pick itself up.

The advertisers are trying to tap into the sense that all's not right in the economy. Something is fundamentally broken, and, until it's fixed, problems like chronic joblessness, bombed-out home prices and stagnant wages will continue. These are all problems I've been exploring over the past couple of years.

At the very top of the list, according to the polls, is the fiscal situation in this country. The total national debt stands at nearly $15.4 trillion, and the annual budget deficit is expected to total $1.1 trillion this year -- levels that as a percentage of the overall economy haven't been seen since World War II. Our deficit, relative to the size of our economy, is larger than that of any other major nation, including Greece and Portugal, according to estimates by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Not good.

With tepid economic growth, dysfunctional bitterness in Washington and some big decisions looming on taxes and spending, the situation is likely to get worse, according to new estimates from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

The Clint Eastwood ad uproar

The worry is that America will eventually face the same fate as Greece: Broke, unable to pay its bills and begging for mercy from its creditors. Not exactly the national image of rugged self-reliance embodied by the "Man with No Name." And something you'll hear a lot about from Republicans running against President Barack Obama this year.

But we're not broke. We have by far the biggest, richest economy in the world. And we enjoy some of the lowest borrowing costs in history.

Anthony Mirhaydari

Yes, we're spending too much, even on popular things like Medicare, Social Security and defense, while cutting taxes to 60-year lows and largely neglecting drivers of future growth such as infrastructure, energy and education. But our huge economy gives us the ability to fix the problem. And we have to.

Because if we don't fix it soon, we will lose that ability.

The government can currently borrow at negative interest rates; the bond market is so eager to funnel cash into the U.S. Treasury that it's willing to pay for the privilege. Last month, investors accepted a negative real yield of 0.05%.

In other words, investors are begging the White House and Congress to borrow. Lenders don't beg to lend money to those who won't be able to pay it back.

In fact, back as far as 1285 -- using bond data starting with city-states of Venice and Genoa before moving on to medieval powers of Italy, Spain and the Netherlands, and modern powers Britain and the United States -- we see that government borrowing costs are near historical lows. (See the chart below.)

This is a consequence of nature of the downturn we're in: a balance-sheet recession driven by debt deleveraging and massive monetary policy stimulus from the Federal Reserve and other major central banks. (For more on these structural issues, be sure to review "The world's $8 trillion debt hole" and "Will Ron Paul-onomics beat Obama?")

We have no problem raising money to fix the things that need repairs. But this won't last indefinitely.

The root of the problem is shown in the chart below.

The money the government has been taking in (as a percent of gross domestic product) has been falling, while the amount it spends has been rising, roughly since 2001. Think the tech crash, the Bush tax cuts, two wars and a long economic downturn. That's a recipe for rising debt.

The U.S. debt load, on its current trajectory, is set to reach scary heights in the years to come -- levels that will put America "in the same position as the peripheral eurozone countries that have seen their borrowing costs soar and left Greece on the verge of a massive default," according to the experts at Capital Economics.

What would it take to turn this around?

Last week, the CBO presented two economic scenarios. The "baseline scenario" would see the deficit fall to less than $200 billion, or 1% of the nation's GDP, by 2018. Sounds great.

The trouble is, it would require that the Bush tax cuts expire, more people pay the Alternative Minimum Tax and doctors accept sharply lower Medicare payments. In addition, there would need to be a trillion dollars' worth of the automatic spending cuts related to the failure of the congressional deficit supercommittee to find a deal late last year. It would also require the end of extended unemployment benefits and the payroll tax cut. The top tax bracket would rise to nearly 40%.

Apart from the political uproar that would cause, the economy wouldn't be able to tolerate such a sudden fiscal tightening. Barclays Capital estimates the cuts would be worth around $500 billion next year, more than of 3.5% of GDP. That, combined with the hit to confidence, would be enough to send the United States down the same recessionary path as austerity-obsessed Europe.

Given election-year politics, this scenario won't happen. And given how eager the bond markets are to finance U.S. debt, such a drastic tightening isn't needed anyway. It would just make the deficit worse, since part of the annual shortfall is driven by economic performance.

So instead, the CBO offers an alternate fiscal scenario. Under this model, the biggest pain points I listed above -- ending the Bush tax cuts, changing Medicare reimbursements, keeping the AMT where it is and those automatic spending cuts -- are all avoided to keep the electorate happy. The only change is allowing the expiration of the payroll tax cuts, which is already scheduled.

Under this scenario, which assumes the economy recovers fully and the unemployment rate falls back below 6%, the deficit is still $1 trillion in 2017. Growth alone doesn't get us out of the hole, just as austerity alone isn't the answer.

This illustrates a critical point: The real problem runs deeper than things like payroll tax cuts and unemployment benefits. It's structural and caused by rising per-capita health care spending and an aging workforce placing more demands on the underfunded social benefits system..

By then, the U.S. debt load will approach the lofty heights occupied by the likes of Italy, Portugal and Ireland -- increasing the risk that the bond market loses patience and jacks up our borrowing costs (as happened in Greece), precipitating a crisis.

This is only five years away. Sooner if the economy worsens, as I expect.

The picture is even uglier over the horizon. A 2010 study by the Bank for International Settlements estimated that in the absence of reforms and a cap on age-related spending, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio will double over the next 10 years to 200%. By 2040, it will be over 400%.

This is the scale of the problem we face.

But, as Eastwood's Chrysler ad suggests, the country is up to the task. To get out of this, we need a two-pronged strategy.

Continued on the next page. Stocks mentioned: Cemex (CX, news) and Martin Marietta Materials (MLM, news).

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61CommentsNewestOldestBestWorstControversial 1234 Starfleet Pride13 minutes ago

No were not Broke but we are listed now as a Non Profit Organization!

as anyone working for wages will not profit from their work,their investments,theirsavings or from over paying taxes all year long!

No our government has gone on a 4 years spending spree and the bill is coming to us all,but hey all the savings we made with our investment in Green energy will Change things I Hope.

I decided why work more for less,just live on less and make less and maybe owe less, but now I just care less.

IRS can't take what I don't have so fight back and do nothing, a rock standing still can not be taxed!!!

1 0ReportSpamAgemingle. com25 minutes agoOh great article ,Age ain't nothing but a number for these loved-up A-Listers. My BF and I both think so! He is almost 10 years older than I .We met via~~--Ａge'Ｍｉｎｇｌｅ .ＣOM~~ a nice place for younger women and oldermen, or older women and younger men, to interact with each other! Maybe you wanna check it out or tell your friends and they did that but like big business they got greedy and wanted more and more . the teamsters was one of the biggest and when they oil companies wanted to raise oil prices they shut down all the trucking end of rising prices the government and big business did not like this 1 2ReportSpamrico torriani1 hour ago

'facing down China and securing our place as the world's pre-eminent power'. ??

I hope, that this is not the way, the majority of Americans think. A country and its people don't need to 'face down' another country. Being an eminent power - yes, by respect and being loved. Get back to your roots. Humble yourself. Get rid of the debts, get the environmental issue under control and turn it around, stop the bullying. Protect your boundaries, don't throw stones into your neighbours garden. Get back to simple rules and truths of life. Accept others as your equal. That's how you can be powerful.

2 2ReportSpamjoey7211 hour ago

As an up and coming baby boomer I remember the days of not having much. Heck, there were no cell phones, multiple TV's were not really an option and radios still required cords. If you wanted extras you put in the time to work for it. Not even sure if there were government funded programs for the poor outside of SS.

I am thinking that todays populace (under 50) have little idea on what the focus required would be. Perhaps it is time that they learned.

2 1ReportSpamZEEBART1 hour agoi will agree unions had a lot to do with pushing work over seas. when they were formed back after the depression was to get big money to pay a decent wage saftey ect ect . and they did that but like big business they got greedy and wanted more and more . the teamsters was one of the biggest and when they oil companies wanted to raise oil prices they shut down all the trucking end of rising prices the government and big business did not like this because people had control of what they were doing so when they started stealing the union members money the government and big business jumped on it . this was a way to break us up take away our power . the trouble is we in many ways did it to ourselves unions had wages up so high at one time that no one could survive cars went from 10 thousand to 25 30 thousand houses 25 thousand to 150 thousand . but with the union wage people could afford this stuff bottom line we the people and big government and banks and stock market put us where we are today . we need unions back but not like they were before working for us not against us get wage eve body can live with if we don't sit down soon and work this out the whole world is in for a big awaking greed put us where we are today 4 1ReportSpamsqiggy2 hours ago"businesses borrow money all the time to grow".... if the USA were a business, it would be out of business. A business borrows money to grow income. The USA borrows money to spend more than its income. These are two entirely different things, despite the article writers implication to the contrary. The US needs to stop spending more than it takes in, and abolish the IRS. A consumption tax that EVERYONE PAYS will dredge up a fortune by collecting taxes from the 48% of Americans who pay nothing due to tax breaks, and would also collect money from illegal income that is not reported. The USA needs to amortize the debt like a mortgage and pay it off over 15 years. SS retirement age should be 83 before benefits can be collected. Get out of the healthcare business, PERIOD. Stop the poor from breeding, and reduce population. The future in the USA is fewer jobs, so why are we increasing the population? Why are people who cannot afford to properly raise their children allowed to have children? Eliminate excess population and other problems will solve themselves. 5 1ReportSpamSwan1one2 hours ago

Yes we can sell treasury bonds to the world funds who's investment ...who moines...? Yours and mind and what will we get for the investment low return for ur money. Yea tie up the money wait for the default on US Bonds. Look we and the rest of the western world are seeing credit ratings drop from AAA to AA or less. That a sign of being broke folks! It will happen because of globalization to many people to feed and put to work in the world 7 billon people on this planet no future for USA in nation building. COST TO MUCH..two wars to build what..?

The only way we make it is close our borders build our own base back and stop trading with the outside world. If we stay in the globalization nation building business we go broke . Wake up Dr. Ron Paul been yelling at you and ur all deaf and dumb America.

6 0ReportSpamJeremy123413 hours agoWell, the entire system we have is at fault. The banking and lending to money creation requires debt for money to exist. And with "globalization" or what that term really means-- stupid trade-- many Americans are no longer able to find a job anymore. We're trading spots with the sweatshops corporations created in China, Mexico, India, and other places. And the jobs many find, pay lousy compared to their past jobs. On top of this you have a large population who are growing older and becoming disabled. Government is the only thing keeping demand up. That very spending is the only thing keeping businesses staying in business.Some how, the system has to be changed. Debt based currency has failed. The money should be tied to no bonds and no interest rate repayment to anyone. That would help. We need to fix our stupid trade agreements which seeks to undercut workers here and exploit workers in other countries. We should entice corporations and small businesses to business here by giving them tax cuts while raising taxes on the very rich at the individual tax level. If you exceed so much in capital gains for your income, you are taxed at 35% to 40% of that capital gains profit. Taxes for the rich have never been so low. The deficit is incredibly bad, and if you want to keep the same horse game of bond based money, the higher incomes of the few who have made a killing in this disaster we called an economic system will have to pay up or the entire thing will fall. And many of them are so greedy, you'll never see these few pay up. So the entire system will probably fall apart. And maybe the system crumbling down is actually a good thing compared to trying to hobble along with a broken system that has essentially mimicing the same thing as going back to mercantilism or even eventually resembling feudalism. 6 2ReportSpamagawa04 hours ago

Wow, $60 billion. That's got me laughing so hard I'm seeing stars. Closest estimates run the Iraq and Afghan wars at $1.3 trillion.

So I'll just ignore the rest of that tripe.

3 2ReportSpamagawa04 hours ago

There are people in congress who want to reduce spending, the problem is with those big money has in their pockets.

'WE'RE SCREWED! ! !"? Only if you keep sending them back to congress.

4 1ReportSpamIRMan19505 hours agoEverything he states is based on the premise that Congress and the Prez will do something about the horrendous spending problem we have. Do you really see anyone in Washington that has any REAL interest in reducing spending by the amount that is needed? No one there is serious about reducing the debt, what do they care, they get their pensions and thousands of dollars from insider trading?It's too late!WE"RE SCR#W#D ! ! ! 16 1ReportSpamagawa05 hours ago

I guess unions are only cool, if you're the hypocrite in one.

I guess you'd rather live in a 'Joe the plumber' dream world.

5 9ReportSpambob n LA5 hours ago

Ashleymalagant- read the article- our yearly deficit is 1.1 trillion, not 2. The soonest any economy is expected to surpass the US is 2025, when China does. For now EVERY country needs us to buy. By then many countries will need what we still produce.

Instead of saying this guy is wrong, how about admitting that when we cut our income in 2001 with the ridiculously low tax rate and have continued to keep it there, we shot ourselves in the foot. How about a tax on the companies that profited from our two wars since we did nothing to pay for them- a first in the history of the country. It was one thing fro Bush to tell us to not let Al Qaeda change our lives, it was something else to bury our heads in the sand and go nuts on spending and cutting our revenue stream.

4 6ReportSpammike shutt (Mike_S)5 hours ago

This guy has a few facts wrong

Greece has negative GDP so our debt to gdp ratio is clearly better than greece and most of europe for that matter

so lets solve the problem

1. the bush tax cuts must go 250 billion a year

2. No new wars of choice or military aid ( so if they attack us in america fine anything elso we dont do) savings 300 to 400 billion per year

3 cut the military by 10 percent is a 200 billion savings

4. Competiton in health care will not lower our debt we have had a competitive system for the last 250 years and so far rates only go up A single payer system or hybrids have proven time and time again to contain costs ( all those other countries that have contained costs do it this way) net savings 2-300 billion

5 print some money 300 billion a year until inflation cracks 3.5 %

6. Get rid of all the bs subsudies 150 billion ( oil subsudies really )

Net savings 1.6 trillion per year or a debt pay down near 600 billion In 10 to 15 years we will be on stable ground again with a nicely manageable debt

6 19ReportSpamashleymalagant5 hours agoSo when people whine that the middle class is gone and the rich are getting richer.... drive your Kia, built in Korea to Wal-mart and purchase your dirt cheap clothes (made in India) for $6.99 and shoes made in Taiwan for $9.99 and Complain some more as you walk out of the place about where did the Middle class go - because you have just helped to assassinate the middle class.

They have to buy Kia because you union commies priced your companies right out of the market. They shop at Walmart because you union-babies fleeced them for so many years, while their own wages stagnated, that their only choice was to buy products there. Shoes are made of leather and rubber. I'm not paying $100+ for a pair because some union scum in Kansas made them. Funny part about these union garbage peddlers, they had no problems supporting minimum-wage shops like Domino's, Burger King and Toys R Us with their fat, undeserved union paychecks. I guess unions are only cool, if you're the hypocrite in one.

24 14ReportSpampocketprotector5 hours agoHogwash. 1 1ReportSpamashleymalagant5 hours agoLOL at this article. Name a country who has been throwing loans at the United States, who ISN'T already painfully entwined in our fate? Our credit has already been downrated. I mean, seriously, has this guy been living in a hole? You can't spend $2 trillion more than you have every year and expect to be financially solvent. Plays are already being made by other countries for our fall from the top. Canada is warming to China. China is warming to Russia. Everyone is hedging their bets. You don't do that if you are confident in your current trade partner. 23 3ReportSpammichlyn5 hours agoHow stupid are we and these posts??? Problem is that we created this and don't want it to stop. Face it people we want everything "right now" and we want it for free - and if not free - very cheap. Why do you think Wal-Mart is successful? It is because they do it as cheaply as possible and we keep on drinking their kool-aid of low prices. Where do they get everything so cheap - from China and now even India (because their day rate is as cheap as China)! We drive big Corporations overseas, because we as a consuming public want it cheaper - so again make it outside of our borders so we can hit the magic price point of $9.99.So when people whine that the middle class is gone and the rich are getting richer.... drive your Kia, built in Korea to Wal-mart and purchase your dirt cheap clothes (made in India) for $6.99 and shoes made in Taiwan for $9.99 and Complain some more as you walk out of the place about where did the Middle class go - because you have just helped to assassinate the middle class.And don't give crap about corporate greed because how many of you were bitching when your 401k's were going through the roof!!! 11 4ReportSpamKarl2316 hours agoSomewhere we need to look at average life span. The USA has high medical cost, but a high life span also. 0 0ReportSpamTheKhanKubla6 hours agoI actually think the corporations and wealthy are out to drive us into being a 3rd world country so we'll work for pennies an hour and the CEO's can make $100,000 or more an hour instead of only $50,000 an hour. 15 19ReportSpam1234 Add a commentReportPlease help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. If necessary, they report all illegal activity to the proper authorities.CategoriesSpamChild pornography or exploitationProfanity, vulgarity or obscenityCopyright infringementHarassment or threatThreats of suicideOtherAdditional comments(optional) 100 character limitAre you sure you want to delete this comment?/**/ DATA PROVIDERS

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