A brand new paper (.pdf) by economists Michael E. Feroli (JPMorgan), Ethan S. Harris (BofA), Amir Sufi (University of Chicago), and Kenneth D. West (University of Wisconsin) takes a hard look at housing, and the impact housing has had on the recovery.
As part of the project, the group decided to break down the recovery into various component parts, comparing it to past recoveries.
In some ways, this recovery looks very similar to past ones.
For example...
Housing, Monetary Policy, and the Recovery
And in some ways, this recovery has been far above average.
For example...
Housing, Monetary Policy, and the Recovery
The recovery has also been stereotype-defying. For example, Federal Government expenditures have only grown modestly, whereas business investment has been very strong.
Housing, Monetary Policy, and the Recovery
But finally, there are two areas where the recovery has been remarkably weaker than average.
Housing, Monetary Policy, and the Recovery
State and local government and residential have obviously both been awful drags on the economy, and yet this is probably a reason to be happy. The fact of the matter is that residential investment is clearly growing (off a tiny base) and the state and local bloodletting is nearing its end days.
Still though, what the above charts (plus others in the paper) show is that this recovery is just not that unusual compared to past ones. There are a couple areas that really stand out to the downside, but in most of the categories, the bounce back has been alright.
See also: The Shaq-shaped recovery >
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