The Dow Is At 13,000 Now, 116,200 by 2046

Chuck Jaffe MarketWatch March 1, 2012

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March 1, 2012, 12:01 a.m. EST

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By Chuck Jaffe, MarketWatch

BOSTON (MarketWatch) "” My favorite market forecast of all time came in the fall of 1995, when mutual fund pioneer Bill Berger came to Boston and predicted the Dow Jones Industrial Average would rise to 116,200.

In his On the 'Mark segment, Mean Street host Evan Newmark reveals the true meaning behind Nasdaq 3,000. Photo: Reuters.

He didn't think it would happen overnight. In fact, the 70-something founder of the Berger Funds figured the market would need until the year 2040 to reach it. (He wryly suggested that if he was proved wrong, people come find him to discuss it; sadly, he died a few years later.)

Of course, Dow 116,200 would be a far more ridiculous thought than even, say, Dow 36,000, the title of a popular-but-wrong-headed book from the bubble days of the late 1990s, were it not for one thing: As the Dow /quotes/zigman/627449 DJIA -0.41% touched 13,000 this week (and the Nasdaq Composite /quotes/zigman/123127 COMP -0.67% flirted with 3,000), it's actually stunningly close to being on track toward making Berger's prediction come true.

Given the market events that have happened since Berger's outrageous prediction, that certainly feels unlikely. Given what investors have come to learn about the market since the Internet bubble burst in 2000, most people would be surprised to learn that the market could be on track for anything but misery.

But as investors consider Dow 13,000, they should also think of it as a moment in time and not a long-term indicator of anything.

To see why that is, let's revisit Berger's prediction.

In 1995, Berger had been in the investment business for 45 years, and had seen the Dow go from below 200 to about 4,500. Mathematically, he saw the Dow's future as reflecting "” more or less "” what had happened in the past, which would move it from the 1995 level to 116,200 in 45 years.

Now let's see just how close he is to being right.

At 13,000 the Dow has not quite tripled since Berger made his prediction in the fall of '95. Using easy, round numbers, we'll say it has tripled over the last 17 years. Using the Rule of 115 "” a rough measure of how long it takes for something to triple based on a constant return "” that's a gain of 6.75% per year.

/quotes/zigman/627449 DJIA 12,952.07, -53.05, -0.41%

If that rate of return holds for the future "” squarely in the annualized average return that many market observers believe is realistic "” then the Dow would triple again in 17 years, reaching roughly 39,000. If the Dow were to triple again from there "” figure 17 more years "” it would reach 117,000.

That would be 2046, a few years past Berger's timetable, but surprisingly close considering that the forecast would have made investors break out in hysterics had it been made at any time in the last decade.

Counting the miles

It's important to consider Berger's larger point when looking at the media hoopla that comes up around any Dow landmark, like what was being kicked around this week.

/quotes/zigman/627449 Add DJIA to portfolio DJIA Dow Jones Industrial Average 12,952.07 -53.05 -0.41% Volume: 182.46M Feb. 29, 2012 4:30p var embeddedchart70394702Chart = new EmbeddedChart('#embeddedchart70394702', NormalChartStyleNoDecimals, 240, 80, '1dy', '5mi', null, null, null, 'US:DJIA'); jQuery.data($('#embeddedchart70394702').get(0), 'embeddedchart', embeddedchart70394702Chart); /quotes/zigman/123127 Add COMP to portfolio COMP NASDAQ Composite Index 2,966.89 -19.87 -0.67% Volume: 0.00 Feb. 29, 2012 5:30p var embeddedchart1186512883Chart = new EmbeddedChart('#embeddedchart1186512883', NormalChartStyleNoDecimals, 240, 80, '1dy', '5mi', null, null, null, 'US:COMP'); jQuery.data($('#embeddedchart1186512883').get(0), 'embeddedchart', embeddedchart1186512883Chart); //$(document).ready(function() { var storywidth = $('#mainstory').width(); var maxwidth = storywidth; $('#maincontent pre').each(function (index, value) { var thiswidth = $(value).width(); if (thiswidth > maxwidth) maxwidth = thiswidth; }); var offset = maxwidth - storywidth; if (offset > 0) { var margin = 13; var blanketwidth = $('#blanket').width(); var contentwidth = $('#maincontent').width(); $('#blanket').width(blanketwidth + offset + margin); $('#maincontent').width(contentwidth + offset + margin); $('#mainstory').width(storywidth + offset + margin); } //}); Page 1 Page 2 var OB_permalink= 'http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-13000-now-116200-by-2046-2012-03-01'; var OB_Template="marketwatch"; var OB_widgetId= 'AR_1'; var OB_langJS ='http://widgets.outbrain.com/lang_en.js'; if ( typeof(OB_Script)!='undefined' ) OutbrainStart(); else { var OB_Script = true; var str = ""; document.write(str); } Comments on this story 32 Comments Most Popular Chuck Jaffe

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Chuck Jaffe is a senior columnist for MarketWatch. Through syndication in newspapers, his "Your Funds" column is the most widely read feature on mutual fund... Expand

Chuck Jaffe is a senior columnist for MarketWatch. Through syndication in newspapers, his "Your Funds" column is the most widely read feature on mutual fund investing in America. He also writes a general-interest personal finance column and the Stupid Investment of the Week column. Chuck does two weekly podcasts for MarketWatch, and frequently makes guest appearances on television, and on radio shows across the country. He is the author of three personal-finance books. His latest, "Getting Started in Hiring Financial Advisors," was published in the spring of 2010 by John Wiley & Sons. Collapse

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It's important to consider Berger's larger point when looking at the media hoopla that comes up around any Dow landmark, like what was being kicked around this week.

Dow 13,000 now; 116,200 by 2046

The best are bullish, the worst are not

Gold selloff risks halting investors' buying spree

China manufacturing surveys rise but still weak

A calm (and successful) bull

Fed gets breathing room from more growth, income

The best are bullish, the worst are not

March investing with an eye on Greece

Market of Steel

Did Apple Signal a Top to the Market Rally?

What To Do When Your Fund Manager Retires

Apple 'Most Admired' Status May Be Bad News

Chuck Jaffe is a senior columnist for MarketWatch. Through syndication in newspapers, his "Your Funds" column is the most widely read feature on mutual fund... Expand

Peter Brimelow

Wall Street Irregulars

A calm (and successful) bull

Kathleen Madigan

The Big Picture

Fed helped by more growth and income

Michael Ashbaugh

The Technical Indicator

Technical trends still positive in March

Robert Powell

Your Portfolio

Read Full Article »

The Dow Is At 13,000 Now, 116,200 by 2046

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