Will the Fed Push Oil To $200/Barrel?

Anthony Mirhaydari MSN Money March 1, 2012

2/29/2012 7:21 PM ET

By Anthony Mirhaydari, MSN Money

Bernanke seems intent on yet another round of stimulus, long after it will do any good. That will open the door to inflation -- and within a few years, $7-a-gallon gas.

Winter's chill is giving way to the rebirth of spring. But it's not just the warmer weather that has investors in a celebratory mood. Stock prices have been blooming in a low-volatility rise that seems perfectly, well, natural.

And investors are enamored with the idea of economic deliverance at the hands of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, via a new round of stimulus involving hundreds of billions more in cheap dollars. He will keep stocks rising. He will solve our intractable problems. It's a cult of personality. And it's a mistake.

It won't be the economic salvation investors expect; Bernanke's about to unleash a hellish inflation that will burn the economy for years. It'll be a slow burn that eats away at the average American's already-diminished living standards through pricier food, fuel and other necessities at a time of stagnant wages, depressed wealth and diminished savings.

Perhaps the biggest pain point: While oil prices rise on talk of Mideast conflict, action by Bernanke and the Fed could push oil prices past $200 a barrel, according to analysts from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. And that would translate to more than $7 a gallon at the pump, according to estimates by CIBC World Markets.

How the Fed shapes inflation

I'm not a lone prophet on this. A growing chorus of Wall Street economists and academics is questioning the market's new monetary policy religion that economic fundamentals don't matter anymore, because liquidity -- cheap money -- trumps all.

Indeed, a few weeks ago Hervé Hannoun, deputy general manager at the Bank for International Settlements (which is the central bankers' central bank), told a conference in South Korea that we're nearing the limits of what monetary policy can accomplish without undoing the hard-won victory over inflation in the early 1980s. He warned against the "illusion of unlimited intervention" that is "peddled daily by the pundits in the global financial markets" who talk of monetary firewalls and bailout-fund bazookas.

Anthony Mirhaydari

There is an increasingly dangerous belief that central banks are all-powerful overlords that can always counteract the fallout of financial crises and can forever act as a lender of last resort for both banks and countries. They can't.

As the great Milton Friedman taught us, persistent inflation is always a monetary phenomenon. Back when the money supply was held constant under the gold standard, the market sorted out higher commodity prices caused by supply disruptions via recessions and demand destruction. Now, price increases caused by the potential for oil supply disruptions out of Iran and elsewhere are magnified by the Fed's maltreatment of the dollar. Other things being equal, a weaker currency will increase the price of real assets -- including crude.

We shouldn't confuse symptoms (higher oil prices and incipient inflation) with causes (overzealous monetary policy). Messianic mullahs with their hands on the oil spigots are a problem. But they're not the root cause.

That's because unlike back in the depths of the recession in late 2008, when the Fed started getting creative by slashing real interest rates to zero, creating new mechanisms to support areas of the credit market and engaging in direct purchases of long-term bonds, inflationary pressures are acute and growing.

Gas prices are moving over $4 a gallon as crude oil returns to last year's highs. Even more alarming, inflation, as measured by the Fed's preferred gauge, is hovering near 2.5% -- well above its newly established 2% target as shown in the chart above.

The time for Fed "creativity" is over.

Cheap money won't save us forever

It's like this: The stock market's 25% rebound from the October lows happened because major central banks have opened the floodgates, unleashing a torrent of cheap money -- bringing the total monetary injections since 2007 to nearly $7 trillion, enough to give every man, women and child on Earth more than $1,000.

These efforts were fruitful in the beginning, when the global economy was on its back, factories were quiet and crude oil was trading at around $35 a barrel. Things are different now. We're paying for our sinful manipulation of the money supply. More cheap money will just make it worse. (For more on the "right way" to get out, review "The world's 8 trillion debt hole.")

The latest round of stimulus started back in November, when the Fed made it easier for foreign banks to borrow dollars. It continued in December, when the European Central Bank offered its banks unlimited three-year loans, an offer that was repeated this week.

Now, attention is turning to the Fed and what it might do at its March and April meetings. Will it unleash a third round of quantitative easing, or "QE3," which amounts to printing money and pumping it into the financial system?

It's easy to think all our structural problems can be solved with more money. The housing overhang. The West's $8 trillion in excess debt. Dysfunctional policymaking. The national deficit. Indeed, despite weakening economic fundamentals, a disappointing fourth-quarter earnings season, Greece's debt woes and likely eurozone exit, and a looming U.S. fiscal showdown later this year over the debt ceiling and the Bush tax cuts, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) continues to flirt with levels last seen in 2008 as if nothing were amiss.

Continued on the next page. Stocks and funds mentioned include: ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ, news), iShares Silver Trust (SLV), Century Aluminum (CENX, news) and US Airways Group (LCC, news).

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70CommentsNewestOldestBestWorstControversial 1234 believe this7921 hour agoI have been hearing the debt matters for years now. Reality shows that the more we borrow the lower interest go. The debt is now near 15 trillion and 10 year bond is at 2 percent. I say keep printing, maybe we can get a 1 percent ten year bond. 0 1ReportSpamMisteriman21 hour agoBernanke cares not about inflation, the US dollar, or the average American. His personal #1 mandate is the stock market and he'll do everything possible to prop it up.I see a knee-jerk correction as stock market cry-babies (or should I say, crack babies) don't get their fix of QE3 this month, but Ben will come to the rescue eventually and the correction will be short-lived... Dow should then go to 14K easily, but by then Americans will finally get the picture that inflation is real and slow down all their reckless spending... then the real stock market correction will start once corporate sales/earnings decline, and there really won't be anything else Bernanke can do to save the stock market or the economy. 5 1ReportSpamlaus deo4 hours ago

Will Fed push us into the "OK Coral"? I think so.

Beans , Blankets and Bullets everyone.

6 1ReportSpamSomeone4 hours agoTreasonous, greedy, elitist cowards are driving the money train off the rails.Salt of the Earth,backbone of America work till they drop,pay their taxes and die in debt.Speculators,Money lenders and Sheisters steal the pennies off dead mens eyes.Why struggle when the undeserving siphon the cream for themselves.They sell us pipe dreams,bridges to nowhere and Casino's;like water,the fruits of labor drain through our fingers.,yet the monsters demand more,more,more.Accountability is vital,hold their feet to the fire and strike fear in their hearts,still they perpetrate with impunity.When is enough,enough ? 13 2ReportSpamMiserblOF4 hours agoWow. This article, and most of the comments below are so far off base, it's frightening. The "sky is falling" crowd keeps claiming massive inflation is just around the corner, and they've been doing it for decades. Bernanke is doing the best he can to turn around the shambles made out of this economy by three decades of fraudulent right wing economics. Until the fraudulent economic policies are reversed, by restoring progressive taxation, a strong labor movement and regulating corporate criminals again, It's about all that can be done. Look at the loons that are vying for the GOP nomination before you say Obama has no chance, oh, and one more thing: Carter was right about virtually every major issue of his day, and the right turn taken in 1980 put this country on a path toward Civil War 2.0 - a path on which it continues today. 12 20ReportSpamDuheim125 hours ago$7 a gallon... wow.... this will end a lot of hard working families.... 12 3ReportSpamal b gored5 hours agoThank you Comrade ShamWowBama.... For all of you old enough to remember, it will be very tough for Oshambles to win a Jimmy Cawter second term..... God, is Barry a pathetic loser or what??? 10 17ReportSpamTAZ MAN6 hours agoThe UNITED STATES is a country sold out by it's goverment. Nothing should be of a surprise. They are no longer working for the AMERICAN PEOPLE. The government no longer even tries to hide the fact for they are UNTOUCHABLE. 28 3ReportSpamrlboothe6 hours ago

The people that are not disabled they do not know what I am talking about. I paid my dues when

I was able to work. So when they get old or disabled what will they think?

7 1ReportSpamrlboothe6 hours ago

When gas was cheap they sold more gas by volume, now that it is up they sell less gas by volume. I thought they wanted to sell more gas.

11 3ReportSpamrlboothe6 hours ago

I hope that we do not have another depression again. Will the stocks stay up forever?

Or will it all come tumbling down on us?

7 2ReportSpammaggie fliehler (mollymays)6 hours agoWell here we go again what **** is this So the little people get hurt again nice thank you Go to work and no food for the kids or the old folks we all ready walk to the store's and if we need to go see the Dr. well we can't buy gas for that so we go to the near walgreens and see the nurse So this great nation will go to hell because we the people are not being heard 15 2ReportSpamrlboothe6 hours ago

I think that they can keep the oil prices down. It does not have to be sky high. Enough is enough

when will this mess stop, where will it end. Bush started a war and we poor folks are paying for his mess ups.

11 21ReportSpamNoGubmentMotorsCarForMe6 hours ago

People thought when 'ol uncle Ben said that the Fed will keep interest rates very low for an extended period of time, that what he meant that was that they weren't going to be raised at all.

The fact is, he never said that, but that's what people heard, or wanted to hear him say in their own mind.

Taken in quarter point increments, the Fed can raise rates close to a dozen times and still only have a 3 percent funds rate. Almost by any standard, 3% is still a low interest rate. But you watch, the first time the the Fed raises rates, the markets will react very negatively because they understand the debt implications, and also understand that one rate increase is likely to be followed by several more. Not to mention, they'll take it as an indication that the Fed is not keeping it's word about raising interest rates, even though... I repeat... Bernanke never said rates would not be raised.

But, the larger question is if the Fed is insane enough to actually go through with QEIII? If the economy is truly starting to recover, then it will be a disaster in the making as it will do nothing to help an economy already on the mend (if it actually is recovering that is) and will only artificially raise stock prices, just as the first two QE's have also done. That is a bubble in the making, and when it bursts, as all bubbles surely do, it's not going to be pretty.

In addition, isn't it great that Greece and the rest of Europe is now stable and gas prices aren't going up....

22 3ReportSpamsaph5006 hours agoLOL People who blame Obama are idiots , they need a civics class ! Lets see ? TWO WARS at 2 billion a week for over 10 yrs that was all borrowed from the communist Chinese . 9/11 has cost over 6 trillion dollars and thats not counting the wars ! We Americans have lost over 2/3rds of our home values ! The feds with all this free money is doing nothing but devaluing the US dollar! So energy costs more! Wall street has lost all sound investing principals of supply and demand ! INT rates on YOUR money is a joke on a CD . The 30 yr treasury note LMFAO is less than 2% LOL BTW The Japanese sunk 90% of the Pacific Fleet in 1941 LOL But you cannot turn a corner today without seeing a toyota ? LOL So much for 9/11 ? Its a sad day in the USA. Land of the free? Home of the stupid! 27 24ReportSpamcrabdust6 hours agoSupply vs. demand does not equate any more. We do not know the true cost of anything. How much does it cost to produce a gallon of ethanol at the pump? Most of us could not afford it. How much did those foreign treaty trades cost? Why do you think unemployment is between 9 and 20 % depending on who you ask? What was the number one export from the U.S. last year and how does that equate to higher prices at the pump? The Fed. needs to be dismantled because they are like most government entities, the more they try to fix it the worse it becomes. 31 4ReportSpamhfactor9116 hours agoIf people in this country really want change they better be willing to give up everything and start fighting for what they believe in. Instead of sitting on the couch and complaining about it. The way its headed by the time gas gets this high we will be a third world country. Fuel at that cost will cripple just about every business that uses fuel from trucking to local pizza delivery then unemployment will spike because no one will be able to leave the house. 27 2ReportSpamcolorado cowboy6 hours agoYes, inflation is here to stay.....Thanks to the printing presses working on overdrive. I guess the 1% are not worried, they have padded their bank accounts but 99% of us are, or at least should be. The Kansas Fed chief said inflation will be noticed most in 2013-16, not a good thing going forward. CEO pay to worker pay: the US has the biggest gap in the world, something to think about...... 17 3ReportSpamgearby6 hours agoAmazing that Bernanke is even considering this. The biggest single threat we face is our ballooning deficit that if unchecked will force devastating times on the America public. Never before in history has the world's reserve currency faced default and that will cause absolute chaos. Italy is considered the next country after Greece to face default and they're at 120% of GDP, the U.S. is at 100%. Big big trouble brewing if business stays as usual in Washington. We'll be at 120% (which is considered the point of no return) in the next couple of years. 26 2ReportSpamnobamain126 hours agoBernankes a moron and who the hell is he to think that he has the right to screw over every one he needs to be fired asap 28 4ReportSpam1234 Add a commentReportPlease help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. If necessary, they report all illegal activity to the proper authorities.CategoriesSpamChild pornography or exploitationProfanity, vulgarity or obscenityCopyright infringementHarassment or threatThreats of suicideOtherAdditional comments(optional) 100 character limitAre you sure you want to delete this comment?/**/ DATA PROVIDERS

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