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NEW YORK (Real Money) -- Even through the darkest phase Be it thick or thin Always someone marches brave Here beneath my skin.
Constant craving Has always been. Maybe a great magnet pulls All souls towards truth Or maybe it is life itself That feeds wisdom To its youth. -- k.d. lang and Ben Mink, "Constant Craving" A bullish magnet has pulled Mr. Market in a northerly direction and has produced an almost constant craving for equities this year. As I wrote earlier this week, it's as if doubt and fear have been driven from Wall Street. Only three of the 30-plus stocks I own are in buyable territory: An attractive entry price that provides favorable returns compared to risk should be important for every investor and trader. For, as Warren Buffett writes, "Price is what you pay, but value is what you get." Since the Generational Low of 2009, the S&P 500 index has moved from 666 to 1380, and it remains my view that most of the positive macroeconomic data have now been more than fully discounted at current valuations. My "fair market value" calculation for the S&P is around 1345 -- so we are now in the overshoot area. There is nothing average about this economic cycle. I, for one, am not willing to pay nearly 14x (close to the historic average of 15x) for earnings when profit margins are at 57-year highs and are vulnerable in a likely setting of rising costs (especially of an oil-kind). On top of the fiscal imbalances (that are not being addressed and that our country faces), there remain substantive economic, political and geopolitical problems aplenty that represent challenges to economic growth and market valuations. Besides the aforementioned secular headwinds, there remain ample near-term economic issues, both here and abroad, that go beyond a developing recession in Europe. 1. The U.S. Economy: On Tuesday, the durable goods reports materially disappointed relative to expectations, falling by 4% (the largest drop in three years). Core capital goods, considered a good barometer of capital spending, declined by a greater amount (4.5%), for the steepest decline in over a year. This result indicates that there was pull-forward of capital spending in 2011 owing to the 100% tax credit available (which expired on Dec. 31, 2011). On Thursday, the government reported that January personal income rose 0.3%, well below the consensus estimate of 0.5%, and spending was up only 0.2%, less than half the forecast. As a result of 0.2% personal consumption inflation (Bernanke's favorite measure of inflation), real income was up by only 0.1% and actually dropped by 0.1% as measured by after-tax disposable income. Meanwhile, real spending was flat. 1 2 Last » Next › More from Real Money Kass: Constant Craving for Equities Misguided Watching for Signs to Go Short Deconstructing Homebuilders Tech Bubble? No Way Buy-and-Hold Is DeadTheStreet Premium ServicesCompare All Services
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