Wed, Mar 7, 2012, 2:11 PM EST - U.S. Markets close in 1 hr 49 mins
Click! Follow Us on Facebook!
Forget the launch of the iPad 3, the election or, at least for the moment, Europe. The next big move in stocks is likely to come from Friday's Non-Farm Payroll data and unemployment levels for February. For the record the estimates range from 175 to 250 thousand. January's figure was 243k with plenty of seasonal adjustments. Unemployment is expected to be 8.3%.
The knee jerk reaction of the market will come off the headline. What actually should matter to traders are the details, according to Barry Ritholtz, editor of the popular "Big Picture" blog. Ritholtz says it's not the absolute data but its relative direction that matters. The month to month figures are subject to massive revisions, the trend isn't.
The stakes are high for the economy and stocks. Ritholtz details what really matters:
1. A strong report means economic improvement. This is a good thing for the country but it also means the Fed is free to start preparing the market for the end of all the QE3 talk and other stimulus. Love or hate the "Free Money" era, its done a decent job of supporting markets, at least on the surface.
2. "Another 200k plus jobs report and you're going to see the GOP camp really pretty much start thinking about 2016," says Ritholtz, openly baiting conservatives to object. It's not a partisan observation, but one borne of pragmatism. For reasons detailed yesterday, voters have a fixed set of concerns and those tend to be stocks and employment. Details are lost on the electorate and it's true all over the country.
3. The nature of the jobs created will tell us where the economy really is. The unemployment rate among those with college degrees is somewhere around 4 or 5% while other sectors suffer. In other words, demand for high-skilled workers seem relatively abundant. In the temporary sector, where the jobs are focused largely on retail and restaurants, it's a different story. The temp numbers tell us the real health of the economy and the data in that regard hasn't been great.
Ritholtz is in the shrinking but highly vocal camp claiming the recent data isn't telling us the, um, Big Picture. He's in the camp that says "recession is a higher probability than people think." If non-farm payrolls come in strong on Friday, Barry's camp will become smaller still.
What do you think? Is Friday's NFP figure important? Are you trying to trade it either way and, if so, why? Let us know in the space below. You can also Tweet me @jeffmacke or hit Barry @Ritholtz
Breakout is Yahoo! Finance's new daily all-out, roll-up-your-sleeves, dive-in, interactive investing show, offering fresh segments throughout the trading day. If you love making money, if you want to protect what you have, if you're passionate about understanding these crazy markets, you're in the right place. Welcome!
MEET THE TEAM: Matt Nesto, Jeff Macke, Aaron Task, Jennifer Carinci and Kevin Chupka
By now it's no secret that Silver has wildly outperformed the major indexes and it's fully-precious big brother Gold, up 30% in 2012. Jon Najarian discusses how the smart money is playing silver and what it means for individual investors trading at home via the wildly popular iShares Silver Trust etf (SLV).
Crude oil and gasoline prices at the pump are rising by the day, driven mostly by Middle East tensions. This is putting the biggest risk premium in prices since 2008, according to oil analyst Phil Flynn. Once the conflict ends, gas prices could come tumbling lower.
Even though the national gasoline average price is still 10% below the record-high $4.12/gal hit in 2008, the steady rise through early 2012 is sparking renewed fears that we're in for another pounding at the pump. What's most concerning is that this rise is unprecedented in that we've never ever seen gas prices this high at this early point of the calendar year.
Global Research
Investor Education
Like it or not it's time to pay the price for being an American: that's … More » It's Tax Season Again! Tips for Every Investor
As we enter into the heart of tax season across America, and people of … More » 5 Ways to Meet Your Retirement Goals
Facebook's much-anticipated IPO --which stands for initial public offering-- … More » Facebook's IPO: What to Know Before You Buy
Always considered a valuable commodity, the most widely followed precious … More » Got Gold? 3 Ways to Invest In It Now
Few things are more maddening than making costly mistakes that could easily … More » Top 5 Investing Mistakes to Avoid
Reading List
Trading Terms & Dictionaries
Roll over each section to subscribe using Add to My Yahoo! or RSS Feed feeds.
Mystery of Alaska's orange goo solved
Roddick nearly hits ball girl with racqu …
Lessons from Super Tuesday showdown
Apple unveils newest version of iPad
Forbes releases 2012 billionaires list
Paula Deen's controversial few months
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Delay times are 15 mins for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges. Quotes and other information supplied by independent providers identified on the Yahoo! Finance partner page. Quotes are updated automatically, but will be turned off after 25 minutes of inactivity. Quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Neither Yahoo! nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing the Yahoo! site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.
Fundamental company data provided by Capital IQ. Historical chart data and daily updates provided by Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI). International historical chart data and daily updates provided by Morningstar, Inc.
Yahoo! - ABC News Network
Read Full Article »