Will Home Prices Fall Another 20%?

Anthony Mirhaydari MSN Money March 8, 2012

3/7/2012 3:16 PM ET

By Anthony Mirhaydari, MSN Money

Despite some encouraging signs, there's ample reason to believe the housing market will take another hit as banks resume foreclosures.

Ask the average guy on the street about things like European Central Bank support for Greece or the intricacies of the deficit debate in Washington, and watch his eyes glaze over.

You might hear something like "those euro-socialists deserve it" or "politicians can't get anything done" -- but the topic will quickly shift to something more aligned to the national interest. Even if it's the Rush Limbaugh contraceptives furor.

For most Americans, there are only two economic data points that matter: the unemployment rate and the strength of the housing market. Both have been showing signs of life, with the jobless rate dropping to 8.3% while home sales, builder confidence and home inventory-for-sale have all improved.

Time to pop the confetti and buy a few Miami condos?

Not quite. Unfortunately, both areas have been misleadingly positive. I gave you my take on the job market in a recent blog post, "Why the job market still stinks." Now, I want to warn you about housing.

Anthony Mirhaydari

The truth is, a combination of factors is set to push national home prices down an additional 10% or so before a hard bottom is found. And if Europe's debt mess and fiscal bickering in Washington result in another recession, the drop could be double that.

Here's why.

The problem with much of the recent enthusiasm is that it's been based on rising home-sales data, which when put in percentage terms by headline writers, makes the gains seem dramatic. Take last month's report on existing-home sales. On a month-over-month basis, sales were up 4.3%; great news!

The hardest-hit housing markets

But at 4.6 million units annually, the sales rate is pitiful compared with the 7.3 million sales peak hit in 2005.

Also bolstering sentiment has been a drop in the supply of housing available for sale. At 6.2 months of supply, the market has returned to "normalcy."

Again, this is misleading. Because of the "robo-signing" foreclosure scandal, the big banks have dramatically slowed the rate at which they push delinquent homeowners through the foreclosure process. Until they iron out the wrinkles, they would rather let deadbeats get a free ride than compound what was already a public-relations nightmare.

The specifics? Data from RealtyTrac show that the number of foreclosure filings has dropped from the 2008-2010 running rate of around 100,000 per month to closer to 60,000 per month now. Because of this, the time between a borrower going 60 days delinquent on a mortgage and liquidation of the property has increased to nearly three years -- up from just five months in 2004.

With the five largest banks and the government reaching a settlement in February, all those postponed foreclosure filings are about to move forward -- unleashing a wave of distressed properties into a weak market. Gluskin Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg notes that when this complete "shadow inventory" of homes is properly accounted for, that number for months of supply on sale in the housing market will jump from 6.2 into the double digits.

Even narrowing the inventory to just homes that are vacant with a "for sale" sign in the yard, there are still around 3 million excess residential housing units on the market. That means that even if builders stop all activity and no new homes come to market, it would take nearly eight months to clear them out.

No wonder prices are weakening again. According to Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Home Price Index, prices have fallen eight months in a row and have reached new post-bubble lows, with prices returning to levels not seen since late 2002. In other words, although the recession officially ended in 2009, the housing market continues to weaken.

Hardly a reason for optimism. And yet the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB), charted above, has nearly doubled off of its October low.

(Before you accuse me of acting like Chicken Little, a bit of disclosure: I recently bought a home. So while the market might still be unsafe for speculators and condo flippers, I do think they are attractive deals out there for long-term owner-occupants.)

Reality is setting in, however. Economists up and down Wall Street are marking down their growth forecasts as data on things like durable goods and factory activity disappoint. And now, the ITB exchange-traded fund is in the midst of a new downtrend, nearly 8% off its high as it drops below its lower Bollinger band -- a sign of intense selling pressure last seen during the August market meltdown.

The heavy hitters in the sector are looking similarly weak. DR Horton (DHI, news) is dropping out of a three-month topping pattern in a huge way. Others including Toll Brothers (TOL, news) and Pultegroup (PHM, news) are similarly looking vulnerable to a medium-term pullback.

There's good reason for investors to head for the exits.

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18CommentsNewestOldestBestWorstControversial Barry the Liar3 hours ago

The ecomony is doing great ? Hey Barry ! When is the last time you earned a Dollar with your hands instead of your Mouth ? Funny that no ones knows How the hell you paid for you Harvard deegree and your stay at Columbia and Occidental College ? Where did all that tuition money come from? Your White Momma sure as hellfire didn't have that kind of money !

Must of been your real Daddy, Mr. Davis, because Obama Senior was busy getting drunk and beating the crap out of his other Illegal wives in Kenya.. Housing has always been the driving force for a robust economy. Not Cars. If you want the price of cars to go down, Boycott buying a new one. Get a used one and drive it into the ground ! They'll get the message. Boycott is the answer...Martin luther King knew that along time ago and it worked for him !

2 3ReportSpamtexasbuilder3 hours agoobama and the democrats didn't start or crash the housing bubble. the republicans did under george the younger. the present republican controlled congress has no other agenda but to not let the present administration pass anything if possible. the " do nothing ' congress does not live like normal people . they go into office and all come out rich. they have their own , all inclusive health plan,retirement and even their own barber all payed for by hard working tax paying citizens that are being sqeezed to death, that they could care less about . i say set term limits for all of them ( 4 terms for house of representatives and 2 terms for senators) , let no politician spend more to campahgn for office than it pays in salary and when their time in government is done they must get a job in the real world just like the rest of us do. and for good measure all lobbyist should be outlawed , since the whole point of a lobbyist is to buy votes for their customers it's out and out corruption. peolr it's time to stop the extremist posturing and flat out take our country back to the roots that made it great in the first place. 9 5ReportSpamsrishi3 hours ago

When oil climbs, inflation increases, interest rates generally increase, and hedges like Gold increase in value. However housing and stock market investro sentiments are closer linked to job increases, market sentiments, and tax breaks, despite slightly higher mortgage payments. New firsttime investors have the desire to increase their satisaction levels as homeowners for the long-term and are willing to put upwith normal cycles of price fluctuation. Hoever investors worry when prices dip. In the last upswing, many homeowners cashed out, and rented places, earning interest on their booty, and waiting for the inevitable correction, to buy in again. That latent demand still exists, and will not fully allow for much price reduction.

0 0ReportSpamAncord3 hours ago

House price has to fall to meet demand, income, and reality. Nobody wants to become mortgage slavery anymore. No more cheap credit.

Save money for raining days ahead.

No Job. No Money. No Health Insurance. No Honey. No Mortgage Slavery. No Taxes. No HOA. No Problem.

3 1ReportSpamAgainstGovernmentWaste3 hours agoCars and houses have always been about payments. As long as someone could afford the payments, house prices would rise, same with cars. Goes back to it's only worth what somebody will give you OR can afford the payments for. 1 0ReportSpamall-that3 hours ago

Bela Ghostly

Do you really think Obama and the Democrats are smart enough to come up with a long range plan? I mean, they can't even come up with a one year budget.................

Or an explanation as to why I should pay for people to have sex............although I do think it is a good idea to provide liberals with birth control. If they would all use it, there would be a lot less brain damaged children.

6 5ReportSpamRise Up America3 hours agoCOMMON SENSE SAYS: NO JOBS TO AFFORD A HOUSE, NO BUYERS CREATED. LAYOFFS CREATE FORECLOSURES. THE RESULT: SO GOES DEMAND FOR HOUSING, SO GOES THE VALUE! 8 1ReportSpamBela Ghostly3 hours ago

this is the OBOMBO and left wing liberals plan! make everything so expensive

and tell you oh it's greedy capitalist but it's actually all the left wing libera spending

and regulations that are killing jobs and the economy! then they say oh the rich

are greedy but they want to raise taxes so they can spend more? who's greedy?

the government makes no jobs except overpaid big union jobs! if the liberal

demos are so concerned why don't they drop their overblown salaries and

benefits and healthcare and stocks and millions of dollars to help the poor

and the sick and babies that they want to kill with abortions?

liberals are nothing but hypocrite liars! keep believing in that change

and that's all you'll ever have is change! but you can't afford anything!

if the economy is good from business and jobs then houses will go up

but as long as OBOMBO is in office forget it!

9 3ReportSpamAyn Droid (Ayn Droid)3 hours agoHome values falling <em>only</em> another 10% is a pipe dream. Thanks to flippers and ruthless Realtors, homes remain seriously overpriced. After all, how much house can you buy working at Burger King? What all the prognosticators fail to address is those falling home prices are measured in grossly devalued dollars, i.e., worth less or worthless depending on your level of loathing the Fed. Hint: your loathing should be grand in dimension.It is to your state's advantage that home prices are 3 to 4 hundred per cent over priced. States roll in big time property taxes on those inflated domiciles; that is your money that they can squander on useless pet projects and unwarranted social programs. A working home owner doesn't use $3000 (or more depending on your mill rate) in state services that he doesn't already pay for. In short, <b>you are being robbed for political whimsy</b>. Yeah, it is that simple. 2 1ReportSpamStupid Pills (forafreequote)4 hours ago

The Phoenix AZ area is not going down. If anything it's headed up. There were 15,700 listings in MLS this am - a little over 2 month supply. There are multiple offers on anything nice.

I just wish the rest of the country would catch up..........

3 3ReportSpamall-that4 hours ago

I am a builder and I am BURIED in work! BUT, it isn't new construction. It's not even major additions. It's remodels and repairs! People lack the confidence (and/or the money) to 'upsize'. The repairs I do are all desperation jobs. They put it off till the last possible second. When the roof leaks so badly they can't stand it anymore, they call. And the remodels are people adapting their home to lifestyle changes instead of buying a different house. NO ONE has any confidence. Well, other than me. I do really good work in a job that can't be outsourced to India. So I'm going to be fine. All the crappy builders that couldn't understand my attention to detail? They now welcome me..........to McDonalds, to Wal-Mart, etc.

All the numbers coming out are lies. And nothing is going to get better until after Novembers elections. And there are so many people that 'vote' themselves an income instead of working for one, we have no guarantees that things will get better after November. Best of luck. And let's 'hope' we get a 'change' soon.

18 4ReportSpamMDGTI4 hours ago"Would it not be great if auto prices moved down? or food prices? or name anything else but houses. "Nope. You've just described deflation, to a large degree. That would be terrible for the economy. 7 3ReportSpamDr. Detroit1704 hours agoLet's see......LIFETIME LOW interest rates hasn't seemed to work. Near-paralysis of new home building has not helped with inventory. Home-buyer tax credit (i.e. bribe) didn't help much either. So what are we to conclude? Anyone know the next "big thing" where the masses can make a buck and increase their incomes? The upcoming generation strike you as financially gifted, or even solvent? Or are they moving back into mom's basement? We know the answer to this question..... 9 2ReportSpamSomeone (people do not care)4 hours ago@farside...So people like Anthony are causing prices to fall? How about the fact that the POS houses were overpriced to begin with? If every house was 1$ they would be sold tomorrow, but they are not 1$, more like 285K. And yes, I rent.... I take two vacations per year, stow money away in stocks and gold, and I kick back and watch my pals grow sick from mortgage fever. You must be a realtor farside, what happened, not making the 8K$ sales commission this month... get over it. If you think home equity is the answer, come to my town of 6k people, we have 450+ homes for sale....whiner... 7 2ReportSpamNick3334 hours agoWould it not be great if auto prices moved down? or food prices? or name anything else but houses. To doggone bad if young people want to buy a house. This is the one thing we "grown ups" want to get more expensive. America truly has become a nation of selfish idiots. 10 3ReportSpamRational Liberty4 hours agoNot to mention that the recent data shows that about 35% of existing home sales have been bank purchases (foreclosures). The general sales numbers thrown around don't tell you that. So, only two-thirds of the low amount of existing home sales were actually sold (presumably) to individuals. And no, the problems that existed four to five years ago haven't been resolved. Housing prices still have a long way to drop. There are still many years left for this mess. 25 1ReportSpamfarside5 hours ago

Anthony, is a downer. I never hear anything positive out of him. While there maybe more gloom and doom ahead, consistently perpetuating it will not help anyone. There are a few statistics that may help. First the historical rate of new housing starts is around 1.5 M. We have been around .5 to .6 for the past 3 years. this will and is building significant demand. Second, the rate of rent is rising due to increased demand. At some point this will encourage people to return to the home ownership model. Third inflation will return and with it, the only way to protect oneself is through some sort of equity ownership such as a home.

We as Americans need to think positively not negatively if we want to have hope in the future.

6 19ReportSpamSomeone (Livonianman)8 hours agotoo far under water to refi so let the prices drop so my taxes keep going down since my income is enough to keep making the payments who cares 24 3ReportSpamAdd a commentReportPlease help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. If necessary, they report all illegal activity to the proper authorities.CategoriesSpamChild pornography or exploitationProfanity, vulgarity or obscenityCopyright infringementHarassment or threatThreats of suicideOtherAdditional comments(optional) 100 character limitAre you sure you want to delete this comment?/**/ DATA PROVIDERS

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