How To Feast On Higher Food Prices

Anthony Mirhaydari MSN Money March 15, 2012

3/14/2012 7:23 PM ET

By Anthony Mirhaydari, MSN Money

Prices at the supermarket are going to keep climbing. These investment ideas could help you join in the profits.

Economists love to talk about things like labor productivity and inventory accumulation when gauging the health of the economy.

But to regular folks, what really matters are things like the cost of a gallon of milk and the price of a loaf of bread -- and how hard they've got to work to pay the bills.

For the better part of 30 years, food wasn't a big deal. It was cheap and plentiful. Incomes were supported by the dot-com bubble and its jobs boom; then, household wealth was bolstered by the housing bubble.

By just about any measure you'd care to use, things have changed. Now, more than 22 million households comprising 45 million Americans rely on government food stamps to put food on the table -- despite the fact the average monthly benefit amounts to just $134 per person. This is up from 12 million households before the recession. Nearly 230,000 participants were added to the program in December, a sign the problem remains acute.

It's no wonder people are struggling.

Rising food prices

Food inflation did slow briefly late last year as the global economy suffered a slower-growth scare, but it has resumed. The U.N.'s measure of food prices -- which includes things like meat, sugar and grains -- is on the rise, up 5% since December. Over the past year, daily prices are up 9% (versus the 10-year annual average increase of near 3.5%). Meat, poultry, fish and eggs are up more than 7% (versus the 10-year average of around 3.5%).

Anthony Mirhaydari

Although agriculture will ebb and flow with the seasons and the vagaries of Mother Nature, this trend of ever-more-expensive sustenance seems locked in. Demand for food could as much as double by midcentury. For most American consumers, this will be just another bother. For some, here and around the world, it will mean going hungry.

And for investors, it could be one of the few consistently profitable themes of the next few years. Here's why, and how to participate.

This phenomenon started in 2008 as commodity prices spiked just as home prices plummeted and the financial markets seized. The cause was a combination of factors: using food for ethanol-based fuel, the growing middle class in China and elsewhere (which raises demand and prices), a jump in oil prices critical to transportation and volatile weather conditions in critical growing regions.

After a brief respite during the depths of the recession, food prices surged again last year. Bad weather and wildfires in Russia, Australia and Argentina, followed by Moscow's wheat export ban, were the cause. And the consequence was higher prices which helped fuel the Arab Spring in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya and social unrest in places like Jordan, Mozambique, and Algeria. Lingering aftereffects have kept the food price index compiled by the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) above its 2008 peak.

When I wrote "Is this the end of cheap food?" last year, I warned that the rise likely marked the beginning of a new era. At the time, Credit Suisse researchers led by Edward Morse noted that while "the predominant short-term cause for most food price spikes in recent years has been supply disruption, it is possible that over time, increased demand from emerging markets could slow or even halt the long-term downward trend in food prices evident for at least the past 100 years."

A little more than a year later, the case for higher food prices has only grown stronger -- for the following reasons, outlined in a recent report (.pdf file) by the British government:

A weak dollar. The Federal Reserve is committed to lowering the value of the dollar as a last-ditch effort to ease the pain of cutting debt, public and private. Much of the cheap money it's creating will find its way into commodity markets as speculators search for ways to fend off the resulting inflation. More inflation will further erode the purchasing power of the dollar, increasing the cost of goods. With wages stagnant, that puts pressure on household budgets. Thus, we see the rise in the use of food stamps.

Higher oil prices. Energy prices affect food prices in a number of ways. Higher crude oil prices increase the desirability of biofuel alternatives -- with current U.S. ethanol policies already boosting corn prices by around 40%, according to some estimates. It also increases the cost of production via oil-derived fertilizers and on-farm energy use. I wrote about the potential for crude oil to push past $200 a barrel because of Fed policy errors in "Will Fed push oil to $200 a barrel?"

Tighter water supplies. You can't have food without water. And water, as I explored last summer, is an increasingly constrained resource. Indeed, Ismail Serageldin, the World Bank's leading environment expert, warned that the "wars of the 21st century will be fought over water."

According to the United Nations, 50% of the global population will be living in water-stressed regions by 2030. By this time, an additional 10% of farmland will be put into use. That will increase total water demand by 14%.

Rising demand. The number of souls on this planet is expected to increase to 9.2 billion by 2050 -- resulting in a 70% to 100% increase in the global demand for food. Rising incomes in the developing world will complicate matters as more people in places like China, India and Brazil adopt a Western-style diet that includes more meat. That's a problem, because protein from meat requires more resources in land, feed, water and energy to produce, taxing the global food-supply chain.

Americans lead the world with the highest proportion of grain-fed meat in their diets, and that puts a strain on crops and water supplies. Americans' meat habit translates to a per-capita requirement of grain four times that of a vegetarian diet. After all, it takes eight pounds of grain to produce one pound of red meat, according to U.N. estimates.

Continued on the next page. Funds mentioned include: iPath DJ-UBS Grains Total Return Sub-Index ETN (JJG), Market Vectors Africa-Index (AFK, news), iShares Latin America 40 Index (ILF, news), Market Vectors Agribusiness (MOO, news) and Global X Fertilizers/Potash (SOIL, news).

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39CommentsNewestOldestBestWorstControversial 12 Rational Liberty16 minutes agoStromprophet,"It's interesting to attack normal every day folks for wanting some help when the biggest welfare pigs are huge corporations (in particular, banks)." First of all, I wasn't "attacking" anyone with that comment. I was simply making a point and asking important philosophical/political questions. Secondly, I agree that the largest recipients of government welfare are certain corporations and banks. That's a problem with the system, not the companies that benefit from it."And much of the wealth produced over the last 40 years was 'taken from the US populace', by things like reducing capital gains tax to 15%, outsourcing jobs, manipulation of executive pay by use of stock options..."The "U.S. populace" doesn't own that wealth. That wealth is owned by those who created it. You are not entitled to the 15% capital gains taxes that are collected by the government. You are not entitled to a job that is created by a businessman - they can do whatever they want with the jobs they create. You are not entitled to executive pay no matter how that pay is distributed."The Federal Reserve inflates markets that benefit a very few, and eventually destroy a lot. And that is direct *theft* from the American People. What they do, changes the value of the money you have saved, the value of your home, and so on."I couldn't agree more. I would love to see the Federal Reserve go away and stop destroying our wealth through inflation and other manipulations of our fiat currency. It would have been better had the Federal Reserve never been created in the first place. However, none of this addresses the fundamental question:What right do you have to force me to pay for your food? 1 1ReportSpamStop the Insanity Now26 minutes agoFood prices and gas prices continue to rise while unemployment remains high and wages remain stagnant. And Obama has the nerve to talk recovery! Could someone please tell me just where in this country this 'recovery' is taking place? 'Cause I sure would like to move there! 2 1ReportSpamStromprophet1 hour agoGetting help to eat is one thing. There are plenty of options to "get help." Taking money that has been collected by force from others is entirely different. Do you have the right to go to your neighbors' houses and force them to give you money for food? Let's say you tried to do that, and brought a gun with you. What do you suppose would happen?

It's interesting to attack normal every day folks for wanting some help when the biggest welfare pigs are huge corporations (in particular, banks).

And much of the wealth produced over the last 40 years was "taken from the US populace", by things like reducing capital gains tax to 15%, outsourcing jobs, manipulation of executive pay by use of stock options, and directly by the Federal Reserve.

The Federal Reserve inflates markets that benefit a very few, and eventually destroy a lot. And that is direct *theft* from the American People. What they do, changes the value of the money you have saved, the value of your home, and so on.

1 1ReportSpamMark O the West1 hour agoNow that farms that grow food here in our country have become large multinational corps, we get to compete against third world demand for our things raised on our own soil in our own land.Somehow this does not seem right at all 5 3ReportSpamjlum1 hour agoFood, gas and anything you need will be more expensive. Inflation is here and the money that you have is not worth the paper that it is printed. No wonder people are spending it like it is going out of style. 6 1ReportSpamghhy iu2 hours agoOh great article ,Age ain't nothing but a number for these loved-up A-Listers. My BF and I both think so! He is almost 10 years older than I .We met via~~--Ａge'Ｍｉｎｇｌｅ .℃○M.~~ a nice place for younger women and oldermen, or older women and younger men, to interact with each other! Maybe you wanna check it out or tell your friendsrankly I find that most people prejudge. Just like with race some assume if you black your are mean or with a gang or if you white you must be rasist. I am a white southern girl and just because of that people label me as rasist. I wish color could just go away- I wish people could be judged and treat based on the actions and interactions rather than thier color, money, job, ect - but the fact is it will never be like that. With in 3 min of meeting someone you judge without even knowing them. I try not to do that, but I find myself doing it at times and try to remind myself that it isn't ok. It isn't fair no matter which side (white, black, rich, poor, nice car, riding the bus) there is good in all "groups" and bad in all "groups" 0 2ReportSpamAgedate.com ------------3 hours agooh,nice topic.i have heard that a saying goes in China like this "Only one himself knows if the shoes match his feet or not “。If u really love her /him ,nothing matters, let alone the age . look at my name .~~ it is a nice place for younger women and older men, or older women and younger men, to interact with each other.we met there ,and he is almost 12 older than me ,but we think we did find the true love.BTW,Ever feel that you would best enjoy someone who is not in your age group? If u are really interested in it, maybe u wanna check it out or tell your friends.There is a tremendous amount of food wasted in this country: higher food prices are likely to cut down on this waste. Many Americans are hopelessly spoiled, and the taste, quality, and healthfulness of the average American diet has declined dramatically with the rise of processed and "fast" foods. But some of us have been experimenting with alternative strategies for personal nutrition since the macrobiotic fad of the 1970s. There are all sorts of ways to get around higher food prices. Americans can eat less; they can shift to a bean and grain based diet (a little meat goes a long way in vegetable-based recipes); they can take up hunting and foraging; they can begin growing their own food anywhere they can find a small patch of ground (think community gardens); or they can investigate the resources that their friendly local supermarket dumpsters have to offer. Of course, if none of these options appeal to you, there is always the "pink slime." I believe that is still fairly inexpensive. 2 6ReportSpamBlackwhitemeet .com Meet Interracial Lover3 hours agoBｌａСkwhｉte meet.℃ o M (My Name)<------Here Your Dream Begins, Want To Find A Person Who Peaks Your Interest?Here Are Lots Of Successful Single Black guys ,White GirlsFind Interracial Love Today....

the audience with some of your family. (Laughter.)

Right before I walked in here, I had a chance to talk to some state troopers and thank them for their service to the community. These folks were first on the scene at the West Nickel Mines Amish School tragedy. I am constantly amazed that our country produces people -- decent, honorable people who are willing to serve. These folks had the ultimate challenge, which is to bring comfort to a hurting community. I thank you for what you've done, I thank you for what you're doing, and I thank you for what you will do. I am honored to be in the presence of the troopers who were there first on the scene. Thanks for coming. (Applause.)

I appreciate so very much, Krist Blank, joining us today. Mr. Blank, I'm honored you are here. I will tell you that, like a lot of Americans, I was deeply troubled when, you know, I found out that mothers and dads were grieving for the loss of their daughter. And I also was -- my soul and spirits were lifted when I read the stories about the forgiveness and compassion that the Amish community showed toward the shooter's family.

It was a remarkable statement of love and strength and commitment for p

0 6ReportSpamRational Liberty3 hours agoDennis Elliott,"The idiot mo's out to tell us all that we are taking all of their money for getting help to eat!"Getting help to eat is one thing. There are plenty of options to "get help." Taking money that has been collected by force from others is entirely different. Do you have the right to go to your neighbors' houses and force them to give you money for food? Let's say you tried to do that, and brought a gun with you. What do you suppose would happen? Now, if you don't have that right, then how can you possibly delegate it to the government? 13 3ReportSpamSomeone (clevus)3 hours ago

"Oil rises as US crude supplies grow", right there is the reason for rising costs of food along with everything else, trying to inflate our way out of debt is great if you are one of the financial institutions that has access to all the "free" money the FED keeps pumping out, if you are a working man it's the reason you are going broke and in misery, we are doomed as a nation. "Oil rises as US crude supplies grow", is that how the republicans sacred "free market capitalism" is supposed to work?

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omote economic growth, and that economic activity brings in higher revenues to the Federal treasury. This year tax revenues grew by $161 billion to reach $2.568 trillion, the highest level of Federal revenues ever recorded. That's an increase of 6.7 percent. And it builds on the 14.5 percent and 11.8 percent increase in revenues during the last two years.

Democrats' "tax and spend" agenda threatens economic growth and a balanced budget. Democrats in Congress are proposing to:

Spend $205 billion more taxpayer dollars over the next five years than the reasonable and responsible levels proposed by the President.Raise taxes by nearly $400 billion – more than ever before in history.Ignore the need for entitlement reforms, while expanding entitlement spending and raising taxes.

Today's budget numbers are further proof that tax relief combined with spending restraint promotes economic growth.

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offered this prediction: If the agreements passed, "U.S. college grads will increasingly see a future in flipping hamburgers." That's the kind of rhetoric we're dealing with when it comes to whether or not this nation ought to be confident and open up markets for goods and services around the world.

The results of the agreements are beginning to come in, and they're proving the critics wrong. In the four years since we implemented a free trade agreement with Chile, American exports to that country have more than doubled. In the four years since we implemented a free trade agreement with Singapore, American exports to that country have increased by about 50 percent. And in just one year since we began implementing a free trade agreement with Central America and the Dominican Republic, American exports to that region have grown by 13 percent. (Applause.)

And meanwhile, U.S. economy has contin

1 9ReportSpamStromprophet4 hours ago

Now this is the kind of article I can get behind.

Some ways to make money, and while it looks at a constrained future, that never meant businesses weren't going to make money.

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The cost of food in America is a joke. It should be the lowest in the world. The amount of grain, beans, and other cereal crops in storage is more then enough to feed everyone. Let alone keep prices down.

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rcentage of the economy, the deficit is now lower than the average of the last forty years. Tax cuts work to promote economic growth, and that economic activity brings in higher revenues to the Federal treasury. This year tax revenues grew by $161 billion to reach $2.568 trillion, the highest level of Federal revenues ever recorded. That's an increase of 6.7 percent. And it builds on the 14.5 percent and 11.8 percent increase in revenues during the last two years.

Democrats' "tax and spend" agenda threatens economic growth and a balanced budget. Democrats in Congress are proposing to:

Today's budget numbers are further proof that tax relief combined with spending restraint promotes economic growth.

1 12ReportSpamStromprophet4 hours agoDoes this idiot really think higher food prices means higher profits? The grocers have no choice but to pass on the price of delivery to the consumer.

For certain companies, it most certainly does.

The income gains in developing economies will translate to higher protien diets. Meaning the world will have to produce much more feedstock (wheat, corn, beans, etc).

So how is someone like John Deere not going to make more money? Farmers/Farm Corps will be making more money as the price of their goods rises, that means they a) can buy more farm equipment, and b) they will need more farm equipment to produce more.

Seed manufacturers/Fertilizer companies will see increasing demand as farmers/farm corps have/want to produce more food.

I think those ETFs fit well, Market Vectors Agri, or Fertilizer ETFs. John Deere is a good play for it as well, if you're looking for a dividend to go with your investment.

8 1ReportSpamJon5 hours agoThe cost of food in America is a joke. It should be the lowest in the world. The amount of grain, beans, and other cereal crops in storage is more then enough to feed everyone. Let alone keep prices down. 32 2ReportSpamDennis Elliott5 hours agoHere we go again! The idiot mo's out to tell us all that we are taking all of their money for getting help to eat! Oh, just shove something long and round down your throat! We are so tired of your uneducated B.S.! It is people like you, that i do wish would lose your job, and have to humble yourself for this aide! Then you would see that you have it all wrong. Not one person i have ever talked to, wants, that is "WANTS" to be on foodstamps. GET IT??? WE DONT WANT TO ASK FOR SOMETHING WE USED TO GET OURSELVES! GET THAT THRU YOUR THICK SKULLS! If it wasn't for the greedy b--turds in this country, this wouldn't even be an issue! Go ahead and vote in the greedy b--turd Romney, then when you are standing in line to get your foodstamps, just remember what you said! Then go starve yourself and your kids because you let pride dictate your actions. What a bunch of MAROONS!! 12 32ReportSpamBradford (hetero me)6 hours agoDoes this idiot really think higher food prices means higher profits? The grocers have no choice but to pass on the price of delivery to the consumer. 14 6ReportSpamlori xvz6 hours agoOh great article ,Age ain't nothing but a number for these loved-up A-Listers. My BF and I both think so! He is almost 10 years older than I .We met via~~--Ａge'Ｍｉｎｇｌｅ .℃○M.~~ a nice place for younger women and oldermen, or older women and younger men, to interact with each other! Maybe you wanna check it out or tell your friends an awful article and you really should be ashamed of yourself, or your editor, for trappingso many people into coming to this link with the teasing header. If you were ever around the uber rich or ultra poor you already know there are very good and polite people in both camps. Its the high visibility **** who stands out and represents the group. You also must realize money doesn't give you class and it also doesn't make you an ****. There is a simple equation Knowledge=Money=Power. It is a constant like the speed of light. Too bad you skipped the Knowledge part to try and get to the Money. You can do better than this article so why not try to write about something meaningful like how we should all leave the world a lottle better than when we arrived 0 16ReportSpam12 Add a commentReportPlease help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. If necessary, they report all illegal activity to the proper authorities.CategoriesSpamChild pornography or exploitationProfanity, vulgarity or obscenityCopyright infringementHarassment or threatThreats of suicideOtherAdditional comments(optional) 100 character limitAre you sure you want to delete this comment?/**/ DATA PROVIDERS

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A little more than a year later, the case for higher food prices has only grown stronger -- for the following reasons, outlined in a recent report (.pdf file) by the British government:

It's interesting to attack normal every day folks for wanting some help when the biggest welfare pigs are huge corporations (in particular, banks).

the audience with some of your family. (Laughter.)

It was a remarkable statement of love and strength and commitment for p

Democrats' "tax and spend" agenda threatens economic growth and a balanced budget. Democrats in Congress are proposing to:

Today's budget numbers are further proof that tax relief combined with spending restraint promotes economic growth.

And meanwhile, U.S. economy has contin

Now this is the kind of article I can get behind.

Some ways to make money, and while it looks at a constrained future, that never meant businesses weren't going to make money.

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How To Feast On Higher Food Prices

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