You're using the wrong figures. Seasonally adjusted Household figures show a decline in March (not a slowing, a decline)
“We see a lack of sustainability in terms of strong job growth,” Tony Crescenzi, a strategist at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, said in a radio interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt. “This is still not strong enough to create escape velocity, which is to say an economy strong enough to make it on its own without additional monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve.”I sense GDP is growing more in the 2 percent range, not in the 4 percent range. QE3 we need, and not a timid display of it.Things have changed since the 1970s. A lower exchange rate for the dollar helps our economy. Yet with global trade and a non-unionized private-sector work force, inflationary pressures are muted. We have had a real estate bust, and property values need reflating. Japan did not reflate after their bust, and they never really recovered, becoming a backwater nation eclipsed by China. Friedman advised Japan to monetize their debt through QE, print money. They didn't listen. But they did have 15 percent deflation with plenty of liquidity and zero interest rates.
Those that have stopped seeking employment has reached an all time high...
Gross Domestic Income (GDI) perhaps sheds some light on this divergence.Analysis: Alternate growth gauge points to more U.S. job gains "GDP expanded at a 1.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter and by 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter. In contrast the alternate measure, Gross Domestic Income (GDI), which measures the income side of the growth ledger, expanded at a much faster pace of 2.6 percent and 4.4 percent over the same periods. While they are both measures of economic activity, they are calculated from different data sources."Economists, including those at Goldman Sachs and at least one at the Fed, believe that GDI is more useful for trying to gauge the economy's underlying momentum. And it would point to sustained job growth. In a paper published in 2010....Fed economist Jeremy Nalewaik highlights the importance of GDI as a growth measure....GDI is published with the third revision of GDP, which falls two months after the initial estimate. It is calculated using corporate profits, compensation and proprietors income data, and updated based on tax returns."http://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-alternate-growth-gauge-points-222205622.htmlWhat do think Scott?
The market has been soaring; will an earnings slowdown inject a dose of reality?Washington Post - 1 hour agoFor the stock market, it was a triumphant first quarter. But for earnings growth, the past three months were just ho-hum. Analysts are expecting earnings for companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index to decline 0.1 percent compared to a year ago,....--30--The WaPo is right, earnings are going flat y-o-y. And employment is soggy---sheesh, I can remember when we generated 200k+ jobs every month, matter of course (1990s). Now we say 100k is okay. While mired in a slo-go mushy economy.It may be time to consider QE as a conventional tool, not exotica. With no earnings growth, the stock market goes flat, and property already flat. Then investors and consumers start pulling in their horns. The world has changed in the last 40 years. Fighting inflation may not be enough for central bank policy. They may also have to start fighting for growth.
The US employment to population ratio rose in March 2012 on both a monthly and annual basis -- this is the first dual rise in the employment ratio in years -- the rise in the employment to population ratio is good news for workers!
PS: More at:http://wjmc.blogspot.com/2012/04/us-employment-to-population-ratio-rises.html
Jake: you are looking at the total, I'm looking at private sector only. Government jobs shrunk by a lot in march.
I see Scott's point, but I'm not getting the same number.The Series ID I'm looking at (from the household survey) is LNS12032189, "(Seas) Employment Level - Nonagriculture, Private Industries Wage and Salary Workers".February's number was 110,778.March's number was 111,114.That's a gain of 336K, not 318K. And doing a quick graph of the data on an Excel spreadsheet does look like it's made a big jump the past few months.
Re: alternate growth gauge (GDI). I see this as one of the reasons to suspect that the economy is not weakening like the payroll number suggests.
What is the BLS or Bloomberg code for household employment private? thanks!
I have traditionally taken my data from BLS Table A-8. I simply subtract "Government" from "Nonagricultural industries" (sa)http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t08.htm#cps_empsit_a05.f.1
2 mln private sector jobs created in Q1!!!
I do my own seasonal adjustments by comparing year to year, then month to month change of that year to year figure, then compare that to the previous year pattern and determine how much better or worse this year is than last.The NSA Household and Establishment is so discrepant I am staggered. If my methodology is good, it means that small business is hiring at an explosive rate and established business which fill out forms each month for the government are actually cutting back.It is nonsensical to me. I must disregard employment in its entirety.
don't you ever stop being panglossian?
Panglossian - from French, Dr. Panglosse, name of the optimistic philosopher and tutor in Voltaire's Candide. A person who views a situation with unwarranted optimism.But who is the you in the "don't you"? Dr William J McKibbin, unknown, William,...??
Here is another view of the US employment to population ratio since 1948 in the form of a heat chart:http://wjmc.blogspot.com/2012/04/us-employment-to-population-ratio-1948.htmlIn truth, the US employment to population has still not dropped to the levels experienced in the 1950's and 1960's -- far from it...
ECRIApril 6, 2012: Weekly Leading Index (WLI) Rises "A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, as did the growth rate on an annualized basis, a research group said on Friday."The Economic Cycle Research Institute said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 126.5 in the week ended March 30 from 125.8 the previous week."The index's annualized growth rate rose to 1.0 percent from 0.0 percent a week earlier. It was the highest level for the index since August 5, 2011 and the highest level for the growth rate since August 12, 2011 according to ECRI.http://www.businesscycle.com/news_events/news_details/5075
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