How Long Will The Central Bank Bubbles Last?

MSN Money May 15, 2012

5/14/2012 7:47 PM ET

By Jim Jubak

The financial markets are holding their own these days, based on the idea the Fed and other central banks will save us from the worst. But what if they can't?

Jim Jubak

The financial markets' faith in the world's central banks would be touching if it weren't so scary.

In the late 1990s we had what was called the "Greenspan put." In the dark days when the collapse of a hedge-fund portfolio at Long-Term Capital Management threatened global financial markets, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan led a massive intervention to stabilize the markets. Investors studying Fed policy concluded that the Fed would intervene to prevent any future collapse in asset prices and that, therefore, piling on risk was a good investment strategy. We all know how well that ended.

What progress we've made! It looks as if we've replaced the Greenspan put with a global put, backed not just by the U.S. Federal Reserve but also by the central banks of the eurozone and the People's Bank of China.

Is the euro doomed?

You're entitled to worry about how this will end.

Wonder why European stocks and sovereign bonds haven't collapsed, even though we're contemplating a Greek default (an official one this time), the wreck of the Spanish banking system and another downgrade of France's credit rating? Because of the belief that if worse comes to worst, the European Central Bank can print unlimited amounts of money.

Wonder why Chinese stocks -- and the emerging-country stock markets that rise and fall with China's prospects -- aren't in a panic as a result of the latest numbers showing slower-than-expected economic growth in China? Because of the almost-universal belief that every bit of worse-than-expected economic news brings us closer to the day when the People's Bank of China will ride to the rescue with a cut in interest rates.

Wonder why the Standard & Poor's 500Index ($INX), is stubbornly hanging around 1,340, even as worries mount about a slowdown in U.S. economic growth? Because of a conviction on Wall Street that if the recovery is in real danger of faltering, the Federal Reserve will launch a third program of quantitative easing that will pump money into the economy (and the financial markets).

Each of these three major pieces of the global put is constructed in a slightly different way. Understanding those different methods of construction can provide some indication of how and when this global put will be resolved.

The Fed's $2.9 trillion dilemma

It says a great deal about how risky the overall global put has become that the U.S. Federal Reserve is now the most conservative player. That's not so much a reflection of a policy bent at the Fed as it is an indication that the Fed got started earlier down this road. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet stood at $2.9 trillion as of the week ended May 9. That's essentially even with the balance sheet in March and only $300 billion above the balance sheet total in September 2011.

To find the big expansion in the Fed's balance sheet, you need to go back to before the September 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and the global financial crisis. In May 2008, it stood at just $900 billion. In May 2009, it was $2.1 trillion. In May 2010, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed $2.3 trillion.

Only when talking about the Federal Reserve (or the U.S. budget) does an increase from $2.1 trillion to $2.9 trillion count as not very much. But it does fall into that category when compared with the total jump of $2 trillion from May 2008 to May 2012.

And what is on the Fed's balance sheet now that wasn't on the balance sheet in May 2008? $1.7 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities, up from $540 billion in May 2008, and $850 billion in mortgage-backed securities, up from zero in May 2008. That increase from 2008 to 2012 is the result of the Federal Reserve's purchase of U.S. Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities after the onset of the global financial crisis. The Fed did this buying as part of its effort to drive down interest rates in order to increase growth in the U.S. economy.

The Federal Reserve paid for the assets now on its balance sheet by printing money (the mechanics are somewhat more complicated than that, but the description is essentially accurate).That expanded the U.S. money supply, lowered interest rates, increased the short-term stability of the U.S. financial system, added something to growth and propped up asset prices in the financial markets.

To the degree that the money the Fed has added to the money supply hasn't gone into investments in productive assets -- and with economic growth this slow, companies haven't been rushing to expand capacity -- it has gone into other assets. These include stocks (either through the direct purchase of stocks by investors or through corporate buybacks and acquisitions) and bonds (which is one reason that bond yields are so low).

The challenge for the Fed is how and when to unwind that $2 trillion addition to its balance sheet by selling the Treasurys and other securities it has bought. That would take money out of the money supply and the economy, which would slow growth. With the economy was growing at just a 2.2% annual rate in the first quarter, that's tricky, and it's made even trickier by the need to reduce the federal budget deficit, currently projected by the Office of Management and Budget at 8.5% of gross domestic product for fiscal 2012. (To put that into context, the deficit as a percentage of GDP is 2 percentage points higher than Spain's projected deficit.)

The alternative, however, is a permanent expansion of the Federal Reserve balance sheet, which would have the long-term effects of adding to inflation, weakening the credit rating of the United States, leading to the depreciation of the dollar and, perhaps most important, limiting the Fed's ability to intervene effectively in any future crisis. (And there are a few of them looming.)

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Well one thing the Central Bank "FED" is good at is keeping interest rates low enough so that savers get nothing on their savings. The businesses are supposed to be hiring more workers with all of this free money. The problem is that they are not doing much of that and potential workers are getting a bad deal with unemployment staying high. So what has happened with these extremely low interest rates. They have transferred a lot of money from the savers to big business and made the middle class and savers poorer. Consequently the rich get richer and the middle class get poorer. Vote on election day and get rid of some of these corrupt politian's. 1 0Replies (0)Hide repliesReportSpamPrevious replies Write a reply...havasu461 hour ago

the total value of the US stock market (NYSE and NASDAQ) is $23.34 trillion.

The total Greek debt is about $340B or 1.5% of the value of the stocks listed on the US markets. The US markets has gone down 600 pts or 4.5% or $1.05 trillon because of a $340b problem. Something ain't right? It seems like everyone is really over reacting to the Greek situation.

0 0Replies (0)Hide repliesReportSpamPrevious replies Write a reply...Sunny outlook4 hours agoThe Fed and other central banks are part of the problem not the solution. We have the fox guarding the hen house. Since the big banking families own the central banks whose best interest do you think they have at heart. 2 0Replies (0)Hide repliesReportSpamPrevious replies Write a reply...stormy774 hours agoNO!!! The Central Bank is inept! Do not trust any Government Agency, Banks, Corporations and Politicians! 2 0Replies (0)Hide repliesReportSpamPrevious replies Write a reply...cel15 hours agocome on Jubak, the markets have always saved themselves. It's like a religion with investors, when their faith fails, nothing can save them, when faith returns, so do the markets. Stop trying to scare invstors into losing their faith. You can say you're trying to warn people, to make them think, but the fact is, you frighten people and make them panic so you can make money. It's your job, admit it !!! 2 7Replies (0)Hide repliesReportSpamPrevious replies Write a reply...comsense9 hours ago

All the posturing and shifting of money to keep things afloat are like an overloaded lifeboat, bobbing about just about to take on water. I'm smart enough to know that Greece DID default on its debt, and WILL eventually drop out of the EU. The rest of the troubled EU countries will follow over time. The massive debt the US has will be paid by default on the currency. A large ratio shift in the dollars value will wipe out the debt but also leave all holding very worthless dollars. In 2013 the ball of yarn will unravel regardless of who is elected. The person who posted citing tax increases would solve the problem for government is Keynesian in thinking or some other folly analysis. Using taxes to shift money from one end to the other is redistributionist. Such policy has proven by historical standards to stall economies. Also, government is not qualified to spend money wisely, waste is at 50% of spending. AARA money was proven to be only 55% efficient, the waste was enormous.

4 2Replies (0)Hide repliesReportSpamPrevious replies Write a reply...PokerFace19 hours agoMy, MY, the large plot thickens. BOOMERS, do you really understand any of this s...? Ya me either, take your marbles out of the game, while you still have the chance. This market is held up on HOT AIR. 2 0Replies (0)Hide repliesReportSpamPrevious replies Write a reply...over50date .com10 hours agoSo the smartest people on earth can't figure out that you can't spend your way out of debt and you can't tax your way to prosperity? That IS pretty scary!

By the way, look at my name, this is a very good old people exchange places

unconsciously graceful swing, we seem to hear the ax biting the pine, or the prospector's pick tapping the rock. And in his eye is the capability of quiet humor, which is just the quality that the surmounting of many difficulties will give a man. 3 2Replies (0)Hide repliesReportSpamPrevious replies Write a reply...Doug (Out in the cold)11 hours agoTo the degree the money the Fed has added to the money supply hasn't gone into investments in productive assets ..

Mr Jubak .. you hit it right on the nail head. The TARP bailout, QE1 and QE2 should have carried certain requirements and restrictions that prevented massive corporate executive bonuses and golden parachutes, as well as, certain conditions that stimulated employment through investments in productive assets. Both the monetary and fiscal policy should be coordinated. But what we have, with this dysfunctional Congress, is actions that are counter productive of the efforts of the Fed to reduce unemployment and hold inflation to modest numbers.

9 1Replies (0)Hide repliesReportSpamPrevious replies Write a reply...ok credit person12 hours agohey listen the central banks , are the ones that are keeping the world moving , but they are also the ones hiding the true problem , greek bust an now spain , they are all hiding the problems 6 0Replies (0)Hide repliesReportSpamPrevious replies Write a reply...Jeremy1234114 hours agoNo. They've done what they can. Anymore will ruin the currency. 0 0Replies (0)Hide repliesReportSpamPrevious replies Write a reply...Intotheknown14 hours agoThe national debt continues to skyrocket and there's no constitutional amendment in sight requiring a balanced budget, so America's bankruptcy is inevitable. It's a matter of when, not if. 11 0Replies (0)Hide repliesReportSpamPrevious replies Write a reply...foo 2u15 hours agoSorry but the real problem lies with governments that somehow can't figure out that revenue, the lack of it, is the problem. Somehow even Bernanke has the notion that taxes remove money from the economy. They don't. They simply move money from one point to another and can greatly improve any economy. Certainly those methods currently advocated of continuing spending without revenue or cutting spending and putting millions more people out of work will totally destroy the economy of this nation or any other. People with surplus incomes don't want to pay any taxes. Corporations don't want to pay any taxes. So called non-profits make billions and are exempt from taxes. Sources of potential revenue are huge. Stop your petty greed and pay up. In the long run, and not a very long run, you will benefit. 5 8Replies (0)Hide repliesReportSpamPrevious replies Write a reply...Justnosey15 hours agoI believe we won't see anything until after the election. Pres Obama will do anything to keep it together as long as he can for political reasons. The Feds need to stop pumping money into financial and wall street, He has been propping up Wall Street while the taxpayers will be on the hook for supporting big business and Wall Street. We need to stop subsidizing all companies. 8 0Replies (0)Hide repliesReportSpamPrevious replies Write a reply...havasu4615 hours agoIt seems like China, EU and US have run out of other peoples money so they'll just print some more. 6 1Replies (0)Hide repliesReportSpamPrevious replies Write a reply...DDD00GG17 hours agoSo the smartest people on earth can't figure out that you can't spend your way out of debt and you can't tax your way to prosperity? That IS pretty scary! 17 1Replies (0)Hide repliesReportSpamPrevious replies Write a reply...Johnboy33817 hours ago

The small, extremely wealthy group of private bankers that call themselves "The Federal Reserve" have been damaging our country (and continue to do so) since thier inception in 1913.

For a thorough explaination of who they are, how they came to be, and thier true agenda for our country, watch the lecture (is on YouTube) by G.Edward Griffith titled "The Creature Created on Jekyl Island".

17 0Replies (0)Hide repliesReportSpamPrevious replies Write a reply...me215917 hours agoAlthough it's difficult to imagine, the Central Banks and national governments have run out of ideas. Nothing so far has worked and the world wide problems are getting worse with each passing day. It seems that Greece will leave the Euro before summer and Spain and Italy will need a lot more than hand holding to get back to productivity. Those with capital are on tender hooks, not knowing which way to turn and even the best and brightest are now failing to find a solution. You think 2013 is when the chickens come home to roost? I put it closer to this August but not later than October or November. 12 1Replies (0)Hide repliesReportSpamPrevious replies Write a reply...Add a commentReportPlease help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. If necessary, they report all illegal activity to the proper authorities.CategoriesSpamChild pornography or exploitationProfanity, vulgarity or obscenityCopyright infringementHarassment or threatThreats of suicideOtherAdditional comments(optional) 100 character limitAre you sure you want to delete this comment?/**/ DATA PROVIDERS

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the total value of the US stock market (NYSE and NASDAQ) is $23.34 trillion.

By the way, look at my name, this is a very good old people exchange places

The small, extremely wealthy group of private bankers that call themselves "The Federal Reserve" have been damaging our country (and continue to do so) since thier inception in 1913.

Quotes are real-time for NASDAQ, NYSE and AMEX. See delay times for other exchanges.

Japanese stock price data provided by Nomura Research Institute Ltd.; quotes delayed 20 minutes. Canadian fund data provided by CANNEX Financial Exchanges Ltd.

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How Long Will The Central Bank Bubbles Last?

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