It's back!.... "Good Morning, White House Staffer" is a special feature we'll be running on the site until the average U.S. national retail price for gasoline falls back below $3.55 per gallon!
Just for fun, we've adapted one of our analytical methods for forecasting stock prices and applied it to the stock market of the Roaring Twenties, which really ran from October 1925 up through September 1929:
Keeping with our yesteryear analysis by taking only what someone in the 1920s might have known about our statistical control chart-inspired analytical methods into account (statistical control charts were invented by Walter Shewhart in the 1920s, it would still be years before Western Electric's rules for detecting breaks in trends would be well developed), the value of the S&P 500, or really, its predecessor index, in September 1929 would mark a very strong sell signal, indicating that stock prices were no longer "normal", while also being far above the mean.
What followed next in October 1929 is, as they say, history!...
The difference between the upward trajectory for stock prices in the late 1920s and the downward one in the early 1930s is most likely the expectations that investors had for inflation. That difference in trajectory is very similar in many respects to recent stock market history, where the Fed influenced inflationary expectations with its quantitative easing programs. If those expectations had been largely constant throughout this period, the vertical separation between the upward and downward trajectories would likely have been minimal.
And for a different perspective on the history of the Great Crash:
Finally, also just for fun, here's what the present period of comparative order in the stock market looks like today:
Make your own determinations.
Labels: SP 500, stock market
- posted by Ironman at 4:03 AM | Permalink | Share | var addthis_config = {"data_track_clickback":true}; | << Home Unexpectedly Intriguing!
About Political Calculations
blog advertising is good for you Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at: ironman at politicalcalculations.com Thanks in advance!
Most Popular PostsThe S&P 500 at Your Fingertips Reckoning the Odds of Recession Should You Trade in Your Gas Guzzler? What Are the Chances Your Marriage Will Last? Tipping Around the World What's Your Body Fat Percentage? The Odds of Dying, Again! The Biggest Issue of 2010, In One Chart Hauser's Law Average Lifetime Earnings Trajectories by Education
Quick IndexFirst Time Visitor to Political Calculations? On the Moneyed Midways A Lot, But Not All, of Our Tools
Recent Posts Kremlinology, Political Calculations and the S&P 5... An Invention for the True Wine Connoisseur Are Baby Boomers Stealing Jobs from the Young? (Pa... Are Baby Boomers Stealing Jobs from the Young? (Pa... Are Baby Boomers Stealing Jobs from the Young? (Pa... Jobs Fade in April 2012 Making Wind Energy Better for the Environment California vs the U.S.: Quarterly GDP New Jobless Claims: Thunderdome Edition! Revisiting the Future for Dividends U.S. GDP Temperature GaugePolitical Calculations' U.S. GDP Temperature Gauge provides a means to quickly evaluate the growth rate of the U.S. economy against the backdrop of how the economy has performed since 1980, with the "temperature" color spectrum ranging from a recessionary "cold" (purple) through an expansionary "hot" (red).
The GDP Temperature Gauge presents both the annualized GDP growth rate as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports for a one-quarter period and also as averaged over a two quarter period, which smooths out the volatility seen in the one-quarter data and provides a better indication of the relative strength of the U.S. economy over time.
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Recommended ReadingAngel in the Whirlwind Bailout Nation Cartoon Guide to Statistics A Comprehensive Guide to the Peloponnesian War The Complete Personal Memoirs of Ulysses S. Grant The Count of Monte Cristo Ender's Game Gardner's Art Through the Ages Empire of Wealth How to Make Presentations to Councils and Boards Juran's Quality Handbook Marks' Standard Handbook The Second World War Stocks for the Long Run Why Smart Executives Fail
Recommended ViewingThe Tudors: The Complete Series
Recently ShoppedSnap Circuits Jr. SC-100 Nerf Vortex Praxis Joby Gorillapod Flexible Tripod Sony BRAVIA 40" LED HDTV NFL Superbowl Super Bowl XLVI 46 T-Shirt Reebok Super Bowl XLVI Hat
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About Political Calculations
blog advertising is good for you Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at: ironman at politicalcalculations.com Thanks in advance!
Most Popular PostsThe S&P 500 at Your Fingertips Reckoning the Odds of Recession Should You Trade in Your Gas Guzzler? What Are the Chances Your Marriage Will Last? Tipping Around the World What's Your Body Fat Percentage? The Odds of Dying, Again! The Biggest Issue of 2010, In One Chart Hauser's Law Average Lifetime Earnings Trajectories by Education
Quick IndexFirst Time Visitor to Political Calculations? On the Moneyed Midways A Lot, But Not All, of Our Tools
Recent Posts Kremlinology, Political Calculations and the S&P 5... An Invention for the True Wine Connoisseur Are Baby Boomers Stealing Jobs from the Young? (Pa... Are Baby Boomers Stealing Jobs from the Young? (Pa... Are Baby Boomers Stealing Jobs from the Young? (Pa... Jobs Fade in April 2012 Making Wind Energy Better for the Environment California vs the U.S.: Quarterly GDP New Jobless Claims: Thunderdome Edition! Revisiting the Future for Dividends U.S. GDP Temperature GaugePolitical Calculations' U.S. GDP Temperature Gauge provides a means to quickly evaluate the growth rate of the U.S. economy against the backdrop of how the economy has performed since 1980, with the "temperature" color spectrum ranging from a recessionary "cold" (purple) through an expansionary "hot" (red).
The GDP Temperature Gauge presents both the annualized GDP growth rate as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports for a one-quarter period and also as averaged over a two quarter period, which smooths out the volatility seen in the one-quarter data and provides a better indication of the relative strength of the U.S. economy over time.
Site DataThis site is primarily powered by:
Visitors since December 6, 2004:
var site="sm7politicalcalculations"
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JavaScript
The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.
Other Cool ResourcesZunZun - Exceptional regression analysis tool. Wolfram Integrator - Solve integrals. Do calculus! Create a Graph - Easy-to-use basic graph-making tool. Many Eyes - Data visualization extraordinaire! Wolfram Alpha - Computational knowledge engine. Khan Academy - Math & science video mini-lectures! Picasion - Animate images.
Archives December 2004 January 2005 February 2005 March 2005 April 2005 May 2005 June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 November 2005 December 2005 January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 April 2006 May 2006 June 2006 July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 December 2006 January 2007 February 2007 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007 June 2007 July 2007 August 2007 September 2007 October 2007 November 2007 December 2007 January 2008 February 2008 March 2008 April 2008 May 2008 June 2008 July 2008 August 2008 September 2008 October 2008 November 2008 December 2008 January 2009 February 2009 March 2009 April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2009 December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 July 2010 August 2010 September 2010 October 2010 November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 March 2011 April 2011 May 2011 June 2011 July 2011 August 2011 September 2011 October 2011 November 2011 December 2011 January 2012 February 2012 March 2012 April 2012 May 2012 if (location.href.indexOf("archive")!=-1) document.write("Current Posts");Bloodhoundblog Budgets Are Sexy Cafe Hayek Carpe Diem Cheap, Healthy, Good Copywriting Tips Core77 Coyote Blog Craig Harper Darwin's Finance Digerati Life, The Division of Labour Dough Roller, The Eclectecon Econlog Economics Roundtable EconomicsUK Entrepreneurial Mind Environmental Economics Escape from Cubicle Nation Execupundit FiscalGeek Fortify Your Oasis Get Rich Slowly Gongol Good Financial Cents HR Bartender Hot Air i4cp Productivity Innocent Bystanders Innovation and Growth Instapundit Intangible Economy I've Paid Twice for This Already Joanne Jacobs Kaus Files Len Penzo dot Com Mahalanobis Making Ripples Market Power Mechonomics Mighty Bargain Hunter Monevator Money Blue Book My Dollar Plan New Economist Newmark's Door Nina Simosko Physorg Private Sector Development Radio Equalizer Real Clear Politics Richard Fernandez Roger L. Simon SCSU Scholars Science and Money Skeptical Optimist Sound Politics SOX First Speculist, The Sports Economist, The squawkfox Three Star Leadership Tim Worstall Tough Money Love Townhall Trusted Advisor Uncommon Misperceptions voluntaryXchange WILLisms Winterspeak
Market LinksBig Picture, The Crackerjack Finance CXO Advisory Group Disciplined Approach to Investing Dividend Guy, The Doug Short Evidence Investing Fat Pitch Financials FX Investment Strategies Oilprice
Charities We SupportAmerican Red Cross Children's Heart Foundation Salvation Army SMA Foundation
Recommended ReadingAngel in the Whirlwind Bailout Nation Cartoon Guide to Statistics A Comprehensive Guide to the Peloponnesian War The Complete Personal Memoirs of Ulysses S. Grant The Count of Monte Cristo Ender's Game Gardner's Art Through the Ages Empire of Wealth How to Make Presentations to Councils and Boards Juran's Quality Handbook Marks' Standard Handbook The Second World War Stocks for the Long Run Why Smart Executives Fail
Recommended ViewingThe Tudors: The Complete Series
Recently ShoppedSnap Circuits Jr. SC-100 Nerf Vortex Praxis Joby Gorillapod Flexible Tripod Sony BRAVIA 40" LED HDTV NFL Superbowl Super Bowl XLVI 46 T-Shirt Reebok Super Bowl XLVI Hat
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The S&P 500 at Your Fingertips Reckoning the Odds of Recession Should You Trade in Your Gas Guzzler? What Are the Chances Your Marriage Will Last? Tipping Around the World What's Your Body Fat Percentage? The Odds of Dying, Again! The Biggest Issue of 2010, In One Chart Hauser's Law Average Lifetime Earnings Trajectories by Education
First Time Visitor to Political Calculations? On the Moneyed Midways A Lot, But Not All, of Our Tools
Political Calculations' U.S. GDP Temperature Gauge provides a means to quickly evaluate the growth rate of the U.S. economy against the backdrop of how the economy has performed since 1980, with the "temperature" color spectrum ranging from a recessionary "cold" (purple) through an expansionary "hot" (red).
The GDP Temperature Gauge presents both the annualized GDP growth rate as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports for a one-quarter period and also as averaged over a two quarter period, which smooths out the volatility seen in the one-quarter data and provides a better indication of the relative strength of the U.S. economy over time.
Political Calculations' Recession Probability Track shows the probability that the U.S. economy will be in recession 12 months from the indicated date (shown in red) while revealing the probability trend over the past four years.
Previously, the probability of recession peaked at 50% on 4 April 2007, which means that March-April 2008 was the most likely period in which the NBER would have found the U.S. to be in recession.
As it happens, they almost did. The NBER instead chose December 2007 as the beginning month of the most recent recession (we had found a 46% probability for a recession beginning in that month!)
The Recession Probability Track ceased to be a leading indicator of recession in the U.S. following the Federal Reserve's adoption of its current Zero Interest Rate Policy, where the Fed artificially constrains short term U.S. Treasury yields near zero percent. We continue to post the Recession Probability Track to monitor the yield on the 10 Year Constant Maturity Treasury, where a falling value provides a leading indication of a worsening economy.
Political Calculations is also the online home of On the Moneyed Midways (aka OMM), a review of the best posts contributed to the week's best business and money-related blog carnivals, which we ran as a regular weekly feature for the five years from 2006 through 2010.
The link below will take you to the running index containing our most recent back issues (you can easily navigate the index to find older editions.)
OMM's Most Recent Editions - with links to our older editions!
This site is primarily powered by:
Visitors since December 6, 2004:
CSS Validation
RSS Site Feed
JavaScript
The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.
Other Cool ResourcesZunZun - Exceptional regression analysis tool. Wolfram Integrator - Solve integrals. Do calculus! Create a Graph - Easy-to-use basic graph-making tool. Many Eyes - Data visualization extraordinaire! Wolfram Alpha - Computational knowledge engine. Khan Academy - Math & science video mini-lectures! Picasion - Animate images.
Archives December 2004 January 2005 February 2005 March 2005 April 2005 May 2005 June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 November 2005 December 2005 January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 April 2006 May 2006 June 2006 July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 December 2006 January 2007 February 2007 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007 June 2007 July 2007 August 2007 September 2007 October 2007 November 2007 December 2007 January 2008 February 2008 March 2008 April 2008 May 2008 June 2008 July 2008 August 2008 September 2008 October 2008 November 2008 December 2008 January 2009 February 2009 March 2009 April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2009 December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 July 2010 August 2010 September 2010 October 2010 November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 March 2011 April 2011 May 2011 June 2011 July 2011 August 2011 September 2011 October 2011 November 2011 December 2011 January 2012 February 2012 March 2012 April 2012 May 2012 if (location.href.indexOf("archive")!=-1) document.write("Current Posts");Bloodhoundblog Budgets Are Sexy Cafe Hayek Carpe Diem Cheap, Healthy, Good Copywriting Tips Core77 Coyote Blog Craig Harper Darwin's Finance Digerati Life, The Division of Labour Dough Roller, The Eclectecon Econlog Economics Roundtable EconomicsUK Entrepreneurial Mind Environmental Economics Escape from Cubicle Nation Execupundit FiscalGeek Fortify Your Oasis Get Rich Slowly Gongol Good Financial Cents HR Bartender Hot Air i4cp Productivity Innocent Bystanders Innovation and Growth Instapundit Intangible Economy I've Paid Twice for This Already Joanne Jacobs Kaus Files Len Penzo dot Com Mahalanobis Making Ripples Market Power Mechonomics Mighty Bargain Hunter Monevator Money Blue Book My Dollar Plan New Economist Newmark's Door Nina Simosko Physorg Private Sector Development Radio Equalizer Real Clear Politics Richard Fernandez Roger L. Simon SCSU Scholars Science and Money Skeptical Optimist Sound Politics SOX First Speculist, The Sports Economist, The squawkfox Three Star Leadership Tim Worstall Tough Money Love Townhall Trusted Advisor Uncommon Misperceptions voluntaryXchange WILLisms Winterspeak
Market LinksBig Picture, The Crackerjack Finance CXO Advisory Group Disciplined Approach to Investing Dividend Guy, The Doug Short Evidence Investing Fat Pitch Financials FX Investment Strategies Oilprice
Charities We SupportAmerican Red Cross Children's Heart Foundation Salvation Army SMA Foundation
Recommended ReadingAngel in the Whirlwind Bailout Nation Cartoon Guide to Statistics A Comprehensive Guide to the Peloponnesian War The Complete Personal Memoirs of Ulysses S. Grant The Count of Monte Cristo Ender's Game Gardner's Art Through the Ages Empire of Wealth How to Make Presentations to Councils and Boards Juran's Quality Handbook Marks' Standard Handbook The Second World War Stocks for the Long Run Why Smart Executives Fail
Recommended ViewingThe Tudors: The Complete Series
Recently ShoppedSnap Circuits Jr. SC-100 Nerf Vortex Praxis Joby Gorillapod Flexible Tripod Sony BRAVIA 40" LED HDTV NFL Superbowl Super Bowl XLVI 46 T-Shirt Reebok Super Bowl XLVI Hat
var gaJsHost = (("https:" == document.location.protocol) ? "https://ssl." : "http://www."); document.write(unescape("%3Cscript src='" + gaJsHost + "google-analytics.com/ga.js' type='text/javascript'%3E%3C/script%3E")); try { var pageTracker = _gat._getTracker("UA-16266971-1"); pageTracker._trackPageview(); } catch(err) {} BLOG_initCsi('classic_blogspot');
The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.
ZunZun - Exceptional regression analysis tool. Wolfram Integrator - Solve integrals. Do calculus! Create a Graph - Easy-to-use basic graph-making tool. Many Eyes - Data visualization extraordinaire! Wolfram Alpha - Computational knowledge engine. Khan Academy - Math & science video mini-lectures! Picasion - Animate images.
Bloodhoundblog Budgets Are Sexy Cafe Hayek Carpe Diem Cheap, Healthy, Good Copywriting Tips Core77 Coyote Blog Craig Harper Darwin's Finance Digerati Life, The Division of Labour Dough Roller, The Eclectecon Econlog Economics Roundtable EconomicsUK Entrepreneurial Mind Environmental Economics Escape from Cubicle Nation Execupundit FiscalGeek Fortify Your Oasis Get Rich Slowly Gongol Good Financial Cents HR Bartender Hot Air i4cp Productivity Innocent Bystanders Innovation and Growth Instapundit Intangible Economy I've Paid Twice for This Already Joanne Jacobs Kaus Files Len Penzo dot Com Mahalanobis Making Ripples Market Power Mechonomics Mighty Bargain Hunter Monevator Money Blue Book My Dollar Plan New Economist Newmark's Door Nina Simosko Physorg Private Sector Development Radio Equalizer Real Clear Politics Richard Fernandez Roger L. Simon SCSU Scholars Science and Money Skeptical Optimist Sound Politics SOX First Speculist, The Sports Economist, The squawkfox Three Star Leadership Tim Worstall Tough Money Love Townhall Trusted Advisor Uncommon Misperceptions voluntaryXchange WILLisms Winterspeak
Big Picture, The Crackerjack Finance CXO Advisory Group Disciplined Approach to Investing Dividend Guy, The Doug Short Evidence Investing Fat Pitch Financials FX Investment Strategies Oilprice
American Red Cross Children's Heart Foundation Salvation Army SMA Foundation
Angel in the Whirlwind Bailout Nation Cartoon Guide to Statistics A Comprehensive Guide to the Peloponnesian War The Complete Personal Memoirs of Ulysses S. Grant The Count of Monte Cristo Ender's Game Gardner's Art Through the Ages Empire of Wealth How to Make Presentations to Councils and Boards Juran's Quality Handbook Marks' Standard Handbook The Second World War Stocks for the Long Run Why Smart Executives Fail
The Tudors: The Complete Series
Snap Circuits Jr. SC-100 Nerf Vortex Praxis Joby Gorillapod Flexible Tripod Sony BRAVIA 40" LED HDTV NFL Superbowl Super Bowl XLVI 46 T-Shirt Reebok Super Bowl XLVI Hat
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