Suppose a young medical researcher, Dr. Smith, discovered a safe, reliable vaccine for breast cancer. If a woman took a single pill at age 30, she’d never develop breast cancer. But the pill costs $1,000. How many American women would take that deal?
Most women would likely jump at the opportunity. For $1,000, a woman would be forever spared the expense and inconvenience of future annual mammograms. She’d never have to worry about her doctor calling to say, “Your mammogram showed a suspicious spot; please come in for a biopsy.” The 12% of women who would have developed breast cancer during their lifetimes would be spared the pain and risks of surgery, chemotherapy, and radiation therapy.
Each woman would gain an enormous value in terms of money saved, peace of mind, and potential added years of life, far exceeding the $1,000 cost. Roughly 2 million American women turn 30 each year. Assuming Dr. Smith made a 10% profit from each sale, he would earn $200 million a year. Most people would regard that as a completely fair outcome. But not Hamilton Nolan.
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