Predicting the legal success of public pension plan changes is difficult at best. The uncertainty arises in large part because protections are determined at the individual state level, generally through judicial decisions that can turn on the very particular facts of a case. In addition, even in states with very clear and strong legal protections for public pensions, a state can always change the plan when doing so is reasonable and necessary to serve an important public purpose. In many cases, the only method to determine whether a change is permissible is to enact the desired change and wait for the results of the sure-to-follow litigation.
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