Three Black Swan Scenarios

NEW YORK â?? An increasingly obvious paradox has emerged in global financial markets this year. Though geopolitical risks â?? the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the rise of the Islamic State and growing turmoil across the Middle East, Chinaâ??s territorial disputes with its neighbors, and now mass protests in Hong Kong and the risk of a crackdown â?? have multiplied, markets have remained buoyant, if not downright bubbly.