Hillary Clinton Has Got This. Probably. Very Probably

THE 2016 presidential campaign has featured the most volatile polls in recent memory. According to the averages compiled by RealClearPolitics, Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump by six percentage points in late June, trailed him by one a month later, was up by eight in mid-August, was nearly tied in late September, gained a fresh seven-point advantage in mid-October and saw it dwindle to two by last week. But at the end of this whiplash-inducing political roller coaster, the national polls have come into alignment—perhaps with the aid of a modest dose of herding—and settled right around their long-term averages. The most recent nonpartisan, live-interviewer surveys with strong performance records all put Mrs Clinton ahead, by margins ranging from one (Marist College) to six (Monmouth University) percentage points, with the bulk giving her a four-point lead. Plus ça change, that happens to be precisely Barack Obama’s edge over Mitt Romney in 2012.