“Expert texpert choking smokers,
Don’t you think the joker laughs at you?”
— John Lennon “I Am the Walrus”
On election night at around 6 p.m. a Hillary Clinton political operative went on TV and smugly opined that she believed they had a 95 percent chance of winning. Wow, 95 percent. In statistics we call that a very high level of certainty. But of course five hours later the woman was in tears and the 1 in 20 long shot named Donald Trump came in.
Throughout the race the betting odds gave Hillary Clinton an 80 percent likelihood of winning. That was never the case. This race was always a toss-up with slight odds leaning toward Hillary. But several months ago my friend Jonah Goldberg, who is a very smart guy, insisted over and over on Fox News that Mr. Trump had no chance of winning the race. Stuart Spencer, who is supposed to be one of the wise men of Republican politics and gets paid a lot of money for his sage political advice said a few weeks before the election that “the election is over” and that Mr. Trump had no chance of winning. Zero.
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