Untethered Optimism Is Not a Friend of Investors

The late Sir John Templeton once said, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” A week ago, bullish sentiment among investment advisors soared to the highest level in 30 years (Investor's Intelligence), joined last week by a 16-year high in consumer confidence. When one recognizes that the prior peak in bullish sentiment corresponds to the 1987 market extreme, and the prior peak in consumer confidence corresponds to the 2000 bubble, Sir Templeton's words take on both relevance and urgency. As I detailed last week, the most historically reliable valuation metrics have advanced within a few percent of their 2000 peaks, while the median valuation of S&P 500 components is now easily at the highest level on record (for charts and other analysis, see The Most Broadly Overvalued Moment in History).