Recessionary Conditions Are Rising

Dividends are a slightly lagging indicator for the U.S. economy, where they are typically about 1-3 months behind the events that drive the U.S. economy. For our purposes, following the announcement of dividend cuts is useful as a near real-time measure of the relative health of the U.S. economy. So, one month into 2017-Q4, we have to report that the pace of dividend cuts in 2017-Q4 is so far higher at this point of time than at the same point in every other quarter of 2017.