No Recession Until At Least Late 2018

The US economy added 261,000 jobs in October bringing the baseline unemployment rate down to 4.1%, the lowest in nearly two decades. And while this number was short of expectations, revisions to the prior two months' data meant a net gain close to the consensus estimates. Going forward, the concern has to be that we are late in the cycle. So we need to think about how fiscal and monetary policy will develop.